Domestic Cotton Rose Against The Market, Vietnam Textile Orders Halved, Labor Facing Unemployment Crisis

1、 Market

Domestic cotton spot rose against the market

Last week to 12000 tons of cotton, affected by the hot spot cotton market, fell strongly. The national cotton price B index 12163, representing the sales of standard grade lint in the mainland, increased by 32 yuan / ton or 0.26% compared with July 10; the settlement price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures was 11985 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton or 1.03% compared with July 10.

Cotton international fell sharply

Last week, affected by signs of tension between China and the United States and rainfall in southern Texas, international cotton prices fell. On July 17, the international cotton index (m), which represents the average CIF price of imported cotton in China's main ports, quoted 69.26 US cents / pound. The RMB price was 12114 yuan / ton according to 1% tariff, which was 404 yuan / ton or 3.23% lower than that on July 10.

3 polyester staple prices continue to decline

The quotation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester staple fiber manufacturers continued to be lowered, with the mainstream price of 1.4d of 5350-5550 yuan / ton, and the actual price of 5300-5350 yuan / ton, which was slightly higher. Fujian polyester staple fiber quotation maintained, trading atmosphere was light, negotiation shipment, 1.4d offer 5550 yuan / ton, short distance delivery, the actual order negotiation or 5400-5450 yuan / ton. The price index of polyester staple fiber closed at 5320 yuan / ton on July 17, down 80 yuan / ton or 1.48% from July 10.

The price of viscose staple fiber fell sharply

The price of viscose staple fiber has dropped sharply. The downstream start-up rate is not high, and the demand is not large. Therefore, it is mainly to purchase under price. At present, the pressure of shipment and inventory of viscose staple fiber factories is high, so it is urgent to clear the warehouse at low price. At present, the price of middle end viscose staple fiber is 8400-8500 yuan / ton, and that of high-end viscose staple fiber is 8800-8900 yuan / ton. On July 17, the price index of viscose staple fiber closed at 8300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton or 2.35% from July 10.

Domestic yarn prices continue to fall 5

Last week, the domestic textile market remained depressed, all kinds of yarn prices were lowered, a new low in the year. Pure cotton 32S quoted 18590 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton; polyester 32S quoted 9600 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; renmian 30s quoted 12100 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton. Reserve cotton reduces the cost of domestic yarn, the competitiveness of outer yarn decreases, the price reduction rate exceeds that of domestic yarn, and the price of Pakistan yarn is stable; the price of conventional outer yarn is 367 yuan / ton lower than that of domestic yarn. The inventory of grey fabric market in the lower reaches rose again, and some weaving factories ensured the operation of enterprises by limiting production and other measures, and the price of pure cotton cloth was basically stable.

6 in the 4th week, the reserve cotton was sold at 11956 yuan / ton

According to the formula for calculating the bottom selling price of central reserve cotton in the announcement of the Ministry of finance of the people's Republic of China issued by the State Grain and material reserve bureau (No. 1 in 2020), the reserve cotton round sales reserve price (converted into standard grade 3128b) was 11956 yuan / ton in the fourth week (July 20-24), which was 73 yuan / ton lower than that in the third week.

7 future prospects

According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's GDP growth in the second quarter of this year has entered the "positive" track again. According to the data, China's GDP grew by 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, higher than the expected 2.5%, making it the first country in the world to achieve positive GDP growth after the epidemic. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the national economy has been gradually recovering. But specifically, the year-on-year growth of clothing, shoes and hats, needles and textiles is still negative. Although the national economy has been gradually recovering since the outbreak of the epidemic, the recovery of textile and clothing is relatively slow.

The overall trading of yarn market is weak, and the performance of various varieties is poor, and the price mainly falls. At present, there is a serious shortage of textile orders, and the loss is more serious, but due to the pressure of inventory, sales are still depressed. Downstream weaving mills continue to be depressed, yarn procurement with the main use, is expected to maintain weak operation in the future.

II. Economic and industrial operation

GDP in the first and second quarter increased by 3.2% year on year, and decreased by 1.6% in the first half of the year

In the first half of the year, China's economy first fell and then rose. In the second quarter, the economic growth turned from negative to positive. The main indicators recovered. The economic operation recovered steadily. The basic livelihood security was strong. The market expectation was generally good, and the overall social development was stable.

According to the first half of the year, the GDP decreased by 4.56 billion yuan. In terms of quarters, the first quarter decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the second quarter increased by 3.2%. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 2605.3 billion yuan, up 0.9% year on year; the added value of the secondary industry was 17275.9 billion yuan, down 1.9%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 2578.2 billion yuan, down 1.6%. On a month on month basis, GDP grew by 11.5% in the second quarter.

In February and June, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8%

In June, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8% on a year-on-year basis (the growth rate of the following added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors), and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points faster than that in May. In June, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 1.30% over the previous month. From March to June, the industrial scale decreased.

In terms of industries, in June, 26 of the 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in added value. Agricultural and sideline food processing industry decreased by 2.4%, textile industry increased by 3.2%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 4.0%, non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 4.8%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 6.3%, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.8%, general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.4%, special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.6%, automobile manufacturing industry increased by 13.4%, railway and ship industry increased by 13.4% The manufacturing industry of shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment decreased by 1.2%, the manufacturing of electrical machinery and equipment increased by 8.7%, the manufacturing of computer, communication and other electronic equipment increased by 12.6%, and the production and supply of electric power and heat increased by 6.3%.

3. The export of textiles and clothing increased in the first half of the year, better than expected

On July 14, the General Administration of Customs of the people's Republic of China released the national cargo trade data from January to June 2020. In the first half of the year, the total value of imports and exports of goods trade was 14.2 trillion yuan, down 3.2% compared with the same period last year (the same below). Among them, 7.7 trillion yuan was exported, 3.5 trillion yuan was imported, down 3.3%. In June, the import and export of foreign trade reached 2.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%, including 1.5 trillion yuan of export, 4.3% growth, and 1.2 trillion yuan of import, an increase of 6.2%.

In the first half of the year, the cumulative export of textiles and clothing increased, which was better than the overall situation of the national trade in goods and exceeded expectations. Among them, the rapid growth of textile export is mainly driven by epidemic prevention materials. Affected by the decrease of foreign demand, clothing export continued to decline, but the decline in June was significantly narrowed than that in April and may, showing signs of recovery.

From January to June 2020, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 125.18 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.1% (the national trade of goods decreased by 6.2%), of which the textile export was 74.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.8%, and the clothing export was 51.08 billion US dollars, a decrease of 19.4%. In June, the export of textile and clothing was 29.03 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.8% (the export of national goods trade increased by 0.5%), of which, the export of textile and clothing was 16.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 56.7%, and the export of clothing was 12.87 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10.3%.

4. Hebei: heavy losses of enterprises with spot price but without market

Recently, the whole cotton market in Hebei Province is still in a low state. The growth of new cotton is not good, and cotton farmers can not see the hope of high yield; the spot price has no market, and some ginning plants have lost money; the cotton seed is out of date, and the transaction is basically suspended; the yarn is due to less orders, enterprises have more holidays.

Yarn orders are still low and mill holidays are increasing. Since the middle of July, many spinning mills in Hebei Province have already had a holiday. The general holiday is one month, with some 50-60 days. The reasons for the holiday are: first, the payment for goods is slow, and the production and operation of enterprises are in short supply; second, the downstream orders are very few, and the inventory of products is rising. For example, an enterprise in Shijiazhuang now has a product inventory of 30 days. As of the 17th, the price of low and medium count yarn in the province was generally stable, but the trading volume was not large. The price of 21s and 32S was 17500 yuan / ton and 18500 yuan / ton respectively, which was basically the same as yesterday. In addition, the prices of some medium and high count yarns also remained stable. For example, the prices of combed 40s and combed 40s in a certain factory were 19700 yuan / ton and 21000 yuan / ton respectively. The overall price level was about 600 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of this month, but it remained low and stable since this week.

5. The net profit of Lutai in the first half of the year decreased by 70%

On the evening of July 14, Lutai disclosed the performance forecast for the first half of 2020. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company during the reporting period will only reach 120 million yuan - 160 million yuan compared with 411 million yuan in the same period of last year, with a decrease of 70.83% - 61.11%. As for the main reason for the performance change, Lutai explained that during the reporting period, the company's orders from customers decreased due to the epidemic situation, and the company's product sales volume decreased, resulting in a sharp decline in net profit compared with the same period of last year.

In the second quarter of this year, Shandong and Thailand will face greater challenges in order to ease the epidemic situation in the second quarter, and it is expected that the pressure of overseas production will still be greater than that of overseas production in the second quarter.

6. Huafu fashion has a deficit of 120-160 million in the first half of the year

Huafu Fashion Co., Ltd. disclosed its performance forecast for the first half of 2020 on the evening of July 14. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies during the reporting period will be 120 million yuan - 160 million yuan less than 351 million yuan in the same period of last year.

According to the first quarter report of 2020 previously disclosed by Huafu fashion, during the reporting period, the operating revenue of Huafu fashion was 2.31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 36.5%; the net profit loss of parent company was 30.442 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 117.7%.

At that time, Huafu fashion explained that the trade dispute between China and the United States hit consumer confidence and restrained Global trade, resulting in shrinking market volume and intensifying competition. The trend and cyclical changes in the market led to a decline in the growth rate of orders from more than double digits to single digits. Secondly, last year, cotton prices fell sharply by 20% in a short period of time, leading to the decline of yarn prices and the difficulty of making profit from orders.

7. The import yarn delivery is not good, traders dare not store up a lot of goods

According to the feedback from cotton yarn traders in Qingdao, Ningbo, Guangdong and other places, although cotton rose in the ice period recently, Pakistan yarn entered the rising channel due to the decline of domestic cotton planting area and the recovery of downstream consumer demand, and European and American countries forced to press the economic "start-up key" despite the risk of the second outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the quotations of FOB and CNF from India, Vietnam, Pakistan and other places of origin continued to be weak and stable Among them, Indian OE yarn, 40s and above combed yarn and Pakistan 8s-21s Siro yarn offer continued to be stable, while Chinese cloth mills and middlemen did not actively inquire and place actual orders. Transaction, shipment is still concentrated in c21s-c32s high configuration package bleaching yarn (including knitting yarn).

Cotton yarn middlemen in Zhejiang, Shandong and other places reflect that in the past half a month, small and medium-sized cloth factories have often restricted production, reduced production and stopped production. In order to avoid layoffs, ensure employment and stabilize production, some cloth factories have adopted the start-up and stop-and-stop strategy, on the one hand, they should try their best to reduce the inventory of raw materials such as cotton yarn; on the other hand, they should try their best to speed up the stock of grey cloth and reduce the pressure on capital. Therefore, the inquiry and order of imported OE yarn, 40s and below ring spinning yarn are all "buy as you use it, and have dinner with vegetables". A trader in Shaoxing said that due to the situation of receiving orders from downstream cloth factories and foreign trade companies still did not improve and their confidence was insufficient, traders did not dare to store a large number of imported yarn or sign "ship goods"; once a slightly larger order arrived, two or even several cotton yarn Enterprises would be required to collect goods before they could hand in the bill, which inevitably led to differences in yarn quality and consistency.

3、 Industry policies and trends

1. Restart the grand opening of 2020 Dawan District Textile Expo

On July 15, Dawan district's first textile and garment industry chain Exhibition - 2020 Dawan District International Textile and clothing Expo opened grandly. With an exhibition area of 80000 square meters and an industrial matrix of more than 2000 exhibitors, Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center (Bao'an New Museum) is blooming, gathering industrial focus and restarting 2020.

When the global economy and trade development are facing serious challenges, China's domestic demand market is becoming the tenacity of the development of textile and clothing industry. Therefore, it is more and more necessary and important to hold an exhibition integrating green, science and technology and fashion in a timely manner. In a limited period of time, it presents the industry appearance with the most cutting-edge products, the strongest industrial advantages, the best exhibitors and the most diversified activities, which not only gives enterprises a new platform to show their own strength, but also comprehensively helps the integration of the whole industrial chain and jointly open up new industries The situation.

2. Vietnam's textile and garment orders are halved, and the labor force is facing unemployment crisis

According to the report of Vietnam's Ministry of industry and Commerce in the first half of the year, production in the field of textiles and clothing has dropped sharply due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. In the first half of this year, textile production increased by 2.8%, only one third more than the same period last year. In June, clothing output increased by 17.5% month on month, but the output in the first six months was still nearly 5% lower than that in the same period last year. The Ministry of industry and Commerce pointed out that the sharp decrease in orders, the delay in the delivery of raw materials and the difficulties in the settlement of production were due to the sharp reduction of orders and the cancellation of production orders

Demand for ready to wear, especially in Europe and the United States, has plummeted. Many clothing retailers have to cancel existing orders or postpone orders to cope with the above situation.

3. The 140 Mu chemical fiber textile industrial park project in Dengzhou, Henan Province has been approved with a total investment of 258 million yuan

On July 15, according to the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Henan Province, the construction project of Dengzhou chemical fiber textile industrial park has been approved by Dengzhou development and Reform Commission. The total investment of the project is estimated to be 258 million yuan, and the construction site is located in Dengzhou city. The planned starting time is September 1, 2020, and the planned completion time is September 1, 2022.

The project covers an area of 937 square meters, with a total construction area of 937 square meters, a total area of 597 square meters, and a total area of 597.1 square meters for the construction of ancillary works, such as water supply and drainage works.

4. Binzhou 3 enterprises have been selected into the list of key brand enterprises in textile and garment industry

Recently, the Department of industry and information technology of Shandong Province confirmed the list of key brand enterprises in Shandong textile and garment industry, and 26 enterprises were selected. Among them, Huafang Co., Ltd., joy Home Textile Co., Ltd., Binzhou Yaguang Home Textile Co., Ltd. were selected.

Shandong Province has carried out the work of clothing industry brand selection for the whole province. Through the procedures of enterprise application, city recommendation, expert evaluation and online publicity, the list of key brand enterprises in Shandong textile and garment industry is determined. A total of 26 enterprises were selected, which were divided into manufacturing brand and terminal brand.

4、 Review of important news at home and abroad

　　1

More than 14.37 million cases have been diagnosed worldwide, and more than 3.82 million cases have been confirmed in the United States

According to the real-time statistics of worldometer website, as of 6:30 on July 19, Beijing time, 14374436 new coronal pneumonia cases had been confirmed worldwide, 603002 cases had died, and more than 10000 cases had been confirmed in 75 countries. In the United States, 3823652 cases of new coronal pneumonia were diagnosed, and 142766 cases died.

　　2

Urumqi has entered a wartime state of epidemic prevention and control

On July 18, Xinjiang held a press conference to report that after the outbreak of the epidemic, Urumqi immediately launched the emergency response plan, established 15 special working groups, and strictly implemented various prevention and control measures: including comprehensive epidemiological investigation, comprehensive detoxification and disinfection of key areas, elimination of the source of virus infection, full rescue of patients, unswervingly internal non-proliferation, the whole city In the "wartime state" of epidemic prevention and control, all kinds of gathering activities were suspended, and closed management was implemented in the community.

　　3

US mortgage rates fall below 3% for the first time in history

The U.S. 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell below the psychological threshold of 3% to 2.98% for the first time in history, according to Freddie Mac Data on Thursday. The number, the most popular home loan rate in the United States, has fallen to a new low for the third week in a row and for the seventh time in the year. The historic data reflect that measures taken to deal with the epidemic have brought down borrowing costs and helped drive the recovery of the U.S. housing market.

　　4

The IMF expects the US economy to shrink by 37% in the second quarter

The U.S. economy is expected to shrink by 37% annually in the second quarter and 6.6% in the whole year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a statement concluding the fourth article consultation with the United States on the 17th. The statement said the longest economic expansion in U.S. history has been disrupted by the new crown epidemic, which has left nearly 15 million Americans unemployed. Although the U.S. government has provided unprecedented policy support for the economy, there is great uncertainty in the future of the U.S. economy, and it may take a long time for the economy to recover to its pre epidemic level.

　　5

Yangtze River No.2 flood! Initiate primary response in multiple places

At 10:00 on July 17, the No.2 flood of the Yangtze River in 2020 will be formed. Affected by the continuous heavy rainfall, many places in Hubei and Jiangsu started the first-order flood control response. On the 18th, the Central Meteorological Station continued to issue a yellow rainstorm warning, and the flood control situation was grim. Experts predict that the Yangtze River No.2 flood is expected to arrive in Wuhan within 4-5 days. At present, Jiangan District of Wuhan city and other places have successively launched flood control emergency level I response. The regional flood control emergency response of Taihu Lake, Shuiyang River and Shijiu Lake in Nanjing also rose to level I.

　　6

Shenzhen issues housing regulation answer: social security or personal income tax over 5 years but household registration less than 3 years can buy a house

The official website of Shenzhen Bureau of housing and Urban Rural Development released "answers to questions related to real estate regulation policies". Those who have paid social security or personal income tax continuously for more than 5 years but have not been admitted to Shenzhen for less than 3 years are eligible to buy a house; if there is more than one divorce record within 3 years before the date of purchase, the number of housing units owned shall be calculated by the sum of the total number of previous divorced families in the three years before the date of purchase, that is, all divorce records within 3 years.

　　7

State film administration: cinemas will be open again, with attendance no more than 30%

On July 16, the state film Administration issued a notice on orderly promoting the opening of cinemas under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control. Adjust the way tickets are sold. All tickets are sold in the way of online real name booking and non-contact; cross seat ticketing is implemented to ensure that the distance between strangers is more than 1 m; the attendance rate of each venue shall not exceed 30%. Arrange the sessions reasonably. The number of screening sessions will be reduced to half of the normal period in film screening venues, and the viewing time will be controlled to no more than two hours per show.