Prosperity Index Of Textile And Garment Market Rebounded In July

The prosperity monitoring results of circulation branch of China Textile Federation show that in July 2020, the prosperity index of national textile and garment professional market managers is 48.98, which is 2.15 percentage points higher than 46.83 in June; the business prosperity index of professional market is 49.03, 0.70 percentage points higher than 48.33 in June. In July, the business climate index picked up compared with June.

1、 Managers boom, merchant boom

In July, the national prosperity index of textile and clothing business and professional management showed a rebound.

1. The manager climate index rose by 2.15 percentage points

Chart 1 list of managers' index

Data source: Statistics of circulation branch of China Textile Federation

From the perspective of the manager climate index, the manager climate index in July was 48.98, up 2.15 percentage points from 46.83 in June; the business environment index was 49.35, up 0.96 percentage points from 48.39 in June.

Among the sub indexes, the total business index was 49.35, up 3.54 percentage points from 45.81 in June; the logistics delivery index was 48.71, up 1.61 percentage points from 47.10 in June; the passenger flow index was 50.00, 3.55 percentage points higher than 46.45 in June; the opening rate index was 49.03, 3.22 percentage points higher than 45.81 in June; the rent index was 47.74, 1.93 percentage points higher than 45.81 in June; The e-commerce sales index was 49.03, down 0.97 percentage points from 50.00 in June.

2. The business climate index increased by 0.70%

Chart 2 list of merchant index

Data source: Statistics of circulation branch of China Textile Federation

In terms of the business climate index, the business climate index was 48.0 percentage points higher than that of the business environment index, which was 48.0 percentage points higher than that of the business environment index, which was 48.0 percentage points higher than that of the business environment index.

Among the sub indexes, the sales index was 48.18, up 1.88 percentage points from 46.30 in June; the average selling price index was 47.55, up 1.66 percentage points from 45.89 in June; the profit index was 48.11, up 1.60 percentage points from 46.51 in June; the comprehensive cost index was 50.07, down 0.55 percentage points from 50.62 in June; the inventory index was 51.19, down 0.86 percentage points from 52.05 in June; The e-commerce sales index was 49.09, up 0.46 percentage points from 48.63 in June.

2、 Data analysis

The off-season is not weak, and the prosperity index of professional market has rebounded

In July, the proportion of total business volume increased by 12.90%, 6.45 percentage points higher than 6.45% in June, total business index increased by 3.54 percentage points, logistics delivery index increased by 1.61 percentage points, and passenger flow index increased by 3.55 percentage points. In June this year, due to the combined effect of the outbreak of clustering epidemic and the traditional off-season of professional markets, the business climate index declined significantly. Although July is still the standard off-season of professional markets, the market situation has improved to a certain extent compared with June, and all important indexes have also shown an overall warming trend.

3、 The overall recovery of the forecast index

The data shows that for managers, the next business climate index is 50.00, up 1.94 percentage points from 48.06 in June; the business environment index in the next period is 49.68, up 1.62 percentage points from 48.06 in June. In terms of merchants, the next business climate index was 49.65, up 1.64 percentage points from 48.01 in June; the business environment index in the next period was 49.65, up 1.70 percentage points from 47.95 in June. In terms of prediction index, the four pre judgment indexes of managers and merchants all rose by more than 1 percentage point. It can be seen that the market expectation of professional market managers and merchants in August is significantly better than that in July.

enclosure:

1. Monitoring methods

"Textile and clothing professional market prosperity index" consists of "manager index" and "merchant index". Using the sampling method, we selected markets and merchants of different business categories such as clothing, fabric, home textiles and small commodities, and filled in the questionnaires of managers' prosperity index and merchants' prosperity index respectively.

2. Monitoring samples

The sample of managers' prosperity consists of 32 specialized textile and garment markets, including Guangzhou Baima clothing market, Beijing Tianya women's clothing building, Jiangsu Dieshiqiao home textile market, Shanghai xinqipu clothing market, Liaoning Xiliu clothing market, etc. The sample of business prosperity is composed of more than 150 merchants, such as Taotao clothing, Muzi thatched house, Ruili Hanshi, zhedi clothing, etc.

3. Monitoring period

The business cycle is monthly, submitted at the end of each month and released at the beginning of the next month.

4. Index composition

In the "textile and clothing professional market prosperity index", the "manager index" consists of four first-class indexes: the current manager prosperity index, the next management prosperity index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index; The "current manager climate index" consists of six secondary indexes: total business index, logistics delivery index, passenger flow index, opening rate index, rent index and e-commerce sales index.

The "merchant index" is composed of four first-class indexes: the current business climate index, the next business climate index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index; "the current business climate index" consists of six secondary indexes: Sales Index, average selling price index, profit index, comprehensive cost index, inventory index and e-commerce sales index.

5. Exponential analysis

The positive index includes manager's total business index, logistics delivery index, passenger flow index, merchant opening rate index, rent index, e-commerce sales volume proportion index, merchant sales volume index, average selling price index, profit index and e-commerce sales proportion index. If the positive index exceeds 50, it indicates that the business situation is optimistic, and the larger the value, the more optimistic it is; if the positive index is lower than 50, it means that the business situation is not optimistic; if the value is smaller, the more pessimistic.

The reverse index includes merchant cost index and inventory index. If the cost index is higher than 50, it indicates that the cost pressure of merchants decreases, and the larger the value, the smaller the cost pressure; if the cost index is lower than 50, it means that the merchant's cost pressure increases, and the smaller the value, the greater the cost pressure. If the inventory index exceeds 50, it indicates that the merchant's inventory pressure decreases, and the larger the value, the smaller the inventory pressure; if the inventory index is lower than 50, it indicates that the merchant's inventory pressure increases, and the smaller the value, the greater the inventory pressure.