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Short Term PTA Supply And Demand Improve Market Narrow Range Fluctuation

2020/8/15 17:37:00 0

International oil prices rose slightly, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased and demand continued to improve to boost the market, but the industry's worries about the spread of the epidemic restrained the rise, and the cost side's support for PTA was weak. In terms of supply and demand, there was a short-term destocking, but the market sentiment was not good, and the narrow basis weakened, resulting in weak price volatility. As of August 13, PTA price closed at 3580 yuan / ton.

Market Overview:

PTA market has moved down slightly recently, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. From the cost side, crude oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range, but international oil prices rebounded due to different degrees of progress in vaccine research and development in many countries around the world. In terms of PX, its own supply is still at a high level, to a certain extent, the price rise is restrained. On the whole, although the cost side support is still available, its strength is limited. In terms of supply and demand, PTA supply and demand showed a small amount of destocking this week, but the spot market is still in a loose state, and in the weak spot trading atmosphere, the market basis weakened slightly, resulting in the price moving down. At present, the return of terminal demand orders has a certain boost to the polyester market, and the improvement of supply-demand link ratio has a boost to the market. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of short-term PTA shows signs of easing, but the pattern of long-term oversupply is difficult to improve. Therefore, the short-term PTA Market may be stronger, but the space is insufficient.

Demand side: there is no change in domestic polyester industry in recent years. It is planned to restart devices such as Jiabao in the early stage, so the trend of polyester industry is relatively stable, with the weekly output of 1073400 tons, up 0.24% compared with last week. In recent years, the production and sales situation of polyester enterprises is flat. After the downstream and terminal factories make up the warehouse moderately, there is a certain conflict mentality for the existing high price goods source, so we should be cautious and wait-and-see.

Cost side: naphtha prices fell slightly during the week, with Pxn up $7.785/t to $160.08/t. From the supply side, PX operating rate is 80.81%, while PTA has short-term shutdown, but the demand fluctuates little. As of August 12, the Asian PX market closed at US $553.33/t CFR China and US $535.33/t FOB Korea, up US $8.66/t month on month.

Future forecast:

Table analysis and forecast of domestic PTA weekly supply and demand balance table

Unit: 10000 tons

	seven May 30	eight June 6	eight May 13	eight 20 e	eight 27th	nine March 3
Total supply	ninety-six point two six	ninety-four point two five	ninety-two point one four	ninety-three point one four	ninety-five point five four	ninety-two point five three
Total demand	ninety-three point four one	ninety-four point three two	ninety-four point five three	ninety-four point six five	ninety-four point seven zero	ninety-five point five three
Difference between supply and demand	two point eight five	-0.07	-2.39	-1.51	zero point eight four	-3.00

Source: Longzhong information

In the short term, Honggang petrochemical, Ningbo Taihua and fuhaichuang all have plans to restart, while Huabin Petrochemical has plans to reduce inventory. At the same time, Yadong petrochemical and Xinjiang Zhongtai all have maintenance plans. Therefore, the supply and demand of short-term PTA still continues to improve. In addition, the terminal market orders are gradually returning to benefit more markets. However, under the medium and long-term supply-demand contradiction expectation, the space above PTA market is limited, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and the next week's interval is expected to be 3500-3700 yuan / ton.