"Three Diaries" Of The Registration System Reform Of Gem: The Overall Trading Sentiment Is In Line With Expectations, And Some Fund Speculation Is On The Alert

August 26 is the third trading day after the registration system reform of gem was officially implemented. After the big rise in the previous two days, the first batch of new shares of gem registration system has obviously entered into differentiation. Only 4 stocks of 18 stocks rose and 9 stocks fell by more than 10%. Kangtai medical, which once rose by more than 2800% on the first day of listing, fell 17.40% on the 26th, while kabiyi, which rose 743% on the first day of listing, directly dropped its limit.

In the first two trading days, the trading volume of gem was 14.039 billion shares, with a turnover of 228.901 billion yuan, up 40% on a month on month basis, and its proportion in A-share turnover also increased significantly from 19% to 25%; on August 25, the trading volume of gem was 271.3 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of A-share turnover, exceeding the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 for the first time in four years.

However, on the whole, on the first day of the implementation of the registration system, the GEM market as a whole remained stable, and there was no big ups and downs due to the relaxation of the rise and fall to 20%.

"After the implementation of the registration system on the gem, the overall performance of these three trading days is in line with expectations. On the first day, it was sought after by funds, with a general rise, especially in some stocks, which even rose by more than 10 times. After the second trading day began to rise, but the rise narrowed. The first day of IPO is sought after by funds, and there is often historical experience to follow. For example, the science and technology innovation board was in the same situation at that time, and it would be stir fried on the first day. " Yang Dehai, chief economist of Kaiyuan fund, pointed out that.

Stock market registration system smoothly implemented

Prior to this, when the Shenzhen Stock Exchange carried out the "official publicity" on the trading system reform plan, it attracted the extensive attention of major enterprises and investors. In particular, the stock companies in the market have been relaxed to 20%, which once triggered heated discussions among investors. Many investors worry that the relaxation of the rise and fall may lead to some stock volatility intensified.

However, in the view of industry insiders, the performance of the first three trading days of the gem registration system was in line with the market expectations, achieving a smooth landing, and the turnover and trading sentiment slightly exceeded the market expectations.

On August 26, official Lei, chief research officer of Starstone investment, pointed out to reporters of the 21st century economic report that "generally speaking, the registration system reform of GEM has been implemented smoothly, and the market performance after the reform conforms to the previous judgment; especially after the implementation of the new trading rules, the market activity has increased significantly, which is more than our expectation. According to the situation of the last three trading days, the daily turnover rate of gem was maintained above 5%, significantly higher than the average daily turnover rate of 3.6% before the reform; from the perspective of transaction amount, there was also a relatively obvious increase, with the total transaction amount of gem on Tuesday exceeding 270 billion yuan, much higher than that before the registration system reform. "

But behind the smooth landing of the market, we have made a series of institutional arrangements without the registration system reform of gem. Previously, Shenzhen Stock Exchange has set up various risk management measures such as investor suitability management, price cage mechanism, transaction risk warning, trading behavior management of member customers, etc. Many people in the industry believe that supporting measures play an important role in stabilizing the market.

"Investor suitability management can largely ensure that qualified investors can join the stock market, and avoid excessive market risk faced by small and medium-sized institutional investors or inexperienced investors. The price cage mechanism can avoid excessive price fluctuation by limiting the range of up to 2% and down in the bidding stage. Including timely trading risk tips, or control in case of abnormal market fluctuations, all contribute to stabilizing the market. " China Merchants Securities chief Macro Analyst Xie Yaxuan said.

Wang Delun, chief strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, also pointed out: "GEM has introduced the price cage mechanism on the basis of fully drawing on the basic experience of the operation of the science and technology innovation board. On the whole, the price cage mechanism helps to form a restriction on the more extreme declaration situations such as high price purchase order and low price sale order which deviate from the market price greatly. To a certain extent, it also helps to restrain the instantaneous excessive fluctuation of price. Moreover, it has the advantage that it will not have too much impact on the normal declaration. "

Guard against the risk of speculation in some sectors

It is worth mentioning that although the growth enterprise market under the registration system performs smoothly on the whole, there are still some speculative funds that "lick the blood" and stir fry high-risk low-priced stocks.

For example, in the first quarter of 2019 and 2020, the annual report was issued with non-standard opinions, and Tianshan biological Co., Ltd., which was registered and investigated by the Securities Regulatory Commission, was subject to three consecutive trading days. The stock price of Jianrui voneng, which had continuous lawsuits, successive resignation of senior executives, and the capital chain crisis, had risen by 49.28% in the past three trading days. Over the same period, the stock price of Jianrui Huaneng increased by 49.14% and 34.14% respectively in the same period %。

Many investors are worried about this speculation phenomenon. However, in the view of industry insiders, such speculation can not last for a long time. With the acceleration of marketization, the market will eventually return to rationality.

Fang Lei pointed out: "we have also observed that after the implementation of the new trading mechanism, especially the relaxation of the price limit, there has been some speculation in some low-priced stocks on the gem, and the volatility has been enlarged in the short term. We believe that there is no need to worry too much about this. On the one hand, relaxing the price limit will help to give better play to the pricing mechanism, and in the long run, the speculative atmosphere of chasing up and killing down prices may be improved; on the other hand, it is expected that with the further maturity of the regulatory mechanism, speculation and speculation will also improve. "

Xun Yugen, deputy director and chief analyst of Haitong Securities Research Institute, also told reporters of the 21st century economic report that "this market-oriented trading system may indeed lead to the price fluctuation of some individual stocks, but it will not change the overall trend of the gem, or the impact will be small. Looking back at the science and technology innovation board, its rise and fall has been set at 20%, but in fact, the proportion of enterprises whose trading range reaches 10% - 20% is very low, about 3%. "

Xie Yaxuan also pointed out: "referring to the experience of developed countries, after the deepening of the market, the expansion of the limit of rise and fall, the maturity of the market and the further marketization of the market trading mechanism are both positive feedback to each other. However, the wider and wider trading range itself does not necessarily lead to greater volatility in the stock market."

Xie Yaxuan also said: "the stock market investment has always been the buyer's own conceit, investors must be responsible for their own position, attention, rather than regardless of the position. From this perspective, the relaxation of the rise and fall of the transaction is also a good opportunity for market education and investment education."

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