PTA Short Cycle Memory Gap Market Or Strong Finishing

Introduction: International oil prices fell slightly, with US commercial crude oil inventories falling for the sixth consecutive week, providing positive support. However, most of the production interrupted by the hurricane in the US Gulf region has recovered, and the UAE may increase its production plan to curb the increase. As of September 2, 2020, WTI range is 41.51-43.04 USD / barrel, Brent is 44.43-45.58 USD / barrel, PTA price is closed at 3565 yuan / ton.

Market Overview:

PTA market rebounded slightly recently. From the cost side, the crude oil market continued to stay high, supporting naphtha and PX prices moved up to varying degrees, and PX processing was still expected to repair, so the cost side remained relatively strong shock. In terms of supply and demand, although the load of Hanbang line and Huabin line increased, the load of fuhaichuang decreased and the maintenance of Yisheng Ningbo plant was implemented, and the market supply was reduced, while the polyester end unit was running stably, maintaining a high demand for PTA, so the supply and demand of PTA Market continued to accumulate slightly. In addition, driven by the better chemical commodity market, the overall price went up, and PTA price also rose slightly. On the whole, the short-term PTA market supply and demand continues to be de stocked, but the situation of excessive supply and demand in the medium and long term is difficult to be significantly improved. It is expected that the short-term PTA market will be slightly stronger.

Demand side: in recent years, domestic polyester industry equipment restart and maintenance coexist, Xingbang and Hengli early maintenance units restart within the week, but there are also Yijin device production reduction, therefore, domestic polyester output showed a narrow rise trend, weekly output was 1.0925 million tons, up 0.81% compared with last week. Recently, in order to stimulate the sales of polyester enterprises, the mainstream factories of polyester filament have given preferential sales promotion, and the market focus has dropped significantly, and the production and sales of factories have been in large volume. Subsequently, under the support of rising polymerization costs and better production and sales, the factory raised the quotation more, and the focus of market negotiation rose slightly. However, after a moderate down stream replenishment, there is a certain resistance to high price goods, and the demand has not substantially warmed up, and the factory production and sales data fell back to a light level. More, more stable quotation.

Future forecast:

Table analysis and forecast of domestic PTA weekly supply and demand balance table

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: Longzhong information

In terms of short-term supply and demand situation, Fuhai Chuang load plan will be increased next week, Luoyang Petrochemical Storage and restart is expected, and the other half of Huabin plant is planned to stop, while Eason Ningbo 2.2 million ton unit continues to be shut down. Therefore, overall, the market supply increase is limited, and the output is expected to be about 936800 tons. There are plant restart plans in the downstream polyester plant, such as Zhuocheng maintenance unit, Yijin production reduction device, etc., and Hengchao new unit is expected to be put into operation within the week. The polyester plant may start operation or maintain an upward trend. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester production will be around 1.09-1.1 million tons next week.

Generally speaking, the short-term PTA market is supported by good demand, and there is still a gap in the supply and demand market in the short term, but the supply and demand in the medium and long term is still in a relaxed state; at present, it is difficult for the cost side to have upward momentum, so we think that the market is still dominated by shocks. However, it should be noted that the current chemical commodity market sentiment is strong, Ta is easy to be driven. It is expected that TA operation space will maintain 3500-3700 yuan / ton fluctuation next week.