ICE Futures Continue To Be Active In The National Day Holiday Market

Although President trump "dramatically" contracted new crown pneumonia and miraculously recovered and discharged from hospital in three days during the "11" period; although the U.S. stock market and financial market experienced two shocks in more than a week, the market "plummeted and soared"; despite the decline in both the contracted export and shipment of upland cotton in 2020 / 21 of the previous week, ice cotton futures continued to rise like a chicken's blood, and the main contract was not It only broke through 66 cents / pound again, and there was no resistance at all from the previous two highs of 66.45 cents / pound and 66.93 cents / pound (short sellers voluntarily gave up and retreated). The intraday high broke the 68 cents / pound barrier (68.29 cents / pound), and the target and trend of 70 cents / pound remained unchanged. Within a week, ice's rise reached 5.29%, which is not a big deal. Moreover, it was a quick victory when the peripheral market, news and fundamentals were not "powerful". The focus of the main contract recovered and stabilized at 66 cents / pound.

Why is ice "rising" in the absence of Zheng Mian resonance and China's large number of contract procurement? Some foreign and domestic cotton enterprises and institutions are summarized as follows:

First, during the national day, the international agricultural products market "surging", red flags everywhere, cotton futures just "coerced" down. According to the statistics of "crude oil fermentation" and "soybean meal" in the main regions of the world, the growth rate of "crude oil" and "soybean meal" in the second month of the first month were 54.51% and 10.42% respectively in the first two months of the year, while the growth rates of "crude oil" and "soybean meal" were respectively 10.42% and 10.42% respectively In 2020 / 21, the laggard picking progress of US cotton supported the rise and fall of ice, including the increasing concerns of Chinese, Pakistan, Vietnam and other buyers about the quality, grade and delivery of US cotton by fashion ship this year; fourthly, the continued loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the US government's fiscal stimulus plan accelerated commodity inflation expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell warned on Tuesday that the U.S. economic outlook is "highly uncertain" and that too little policy support may lead to more family and business bankruptcies and trigger "recession momentum". Therefore, the industry judges that the minutes of the September fed meeting have two main points: expanding the willingness to ease and allowing inflation to rise; in addition, US President trump said on Thursday that the government and Congress had two points The negotiation on fiscal stimulus measures has been restarted, and there is a chance to reach an agreement; fifthly, the orderly promotion of the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States, and the faster than expected recovery of cotton consumption demand in Southeast Asia, Turkey, South America and other countries also make ice more confident to go up.