The Demand For Influenza Vaccine In Autumn And Winter Increases Sharply, And The Docking Mechanism Between Supply And Demand Needs To Be Innovated

"At present, influenza vaccine is very tight. We will inform you when the vaccine comes." On October 20, a staff member of Gaobeidian community health service center in Chaoyang District, Beijing, said in response to an appointment demand of reporters from the 21st century economic report that more than 1000 people were waiting in line for a notice.

The above-mentioned vaccine appointment in the health service center is only a microcosm of the current influenza vaccine. The 21st century economic report reporter learned from some 3A hospitals that it is difficult to get a single dose of influenza vaccine. It is understood that since autumn and winter, the news of influenza vaccine supply shortage has been constantly spreading.

Yin Jie, head of Ali health and immunization planning center, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that on the Ali health platform, online influenza vaccine service bookings increased 35 times in recent months compared with last year, and 6 times from August to September.

As for the imbalance between supply and demand of influenza vaccine, vaccine experts and vaccine manufacturers have said that the current situation is basically finalized because there is no time for production. Vaccine expert Tao Lina told the 21st century economic reporter that it is necessary to innovate a supply-demand docking mechanism.

According to Yin Jie, although there was a shortage of vaccine supply last year, 20% of the vaccines were scrapped due to the uneven matching of regional supply and demand. Many enterprises produced according to last year's production capacity. At present, what can be done is to figure out the specific demand through digital Internet. Now there is a window period of one and a half months. The long-term solution mechanism is to use digital mechanism to build the demand of the coming year. The supply is ready, the quantity is allocated, and the digital supply and demand match. However, it is not ruled out that some demands are dynamic. If the process technology of the enterprise can keep up with it, the supply can be accelerated, such as the use of gene recombination technology.

Demand expansion

Zhang Hui, vice president of China's food industry, estimated that more than 3000 copies of influenza vaccine had been issued by the 30th people's Congress of China's food industry by the end of the 8th of 2020.

According to the batch issuance data of influenza vaccines issued by the Central Inspection Institute, a total of 33.96 million influenza vaccines were approved and issued in China from January to September, which has exceeded the total of 30.78 million in the whole year last year.

In fact, it can be seen from the above data that the production capacity in 2020 has actually increased significantly. Why is it difficult to get a needle?

Yin Jie analyzed to the 21st century economic report reporter that due to the impact of the new epidemic situation, the public awareness of vaccination has been improved, which has brought about a large increase in demand; at the same time, the new epidemic situation and influenza factors are superimposed, many governments have strengthened the vaccination of high-risk groups such as the elderly and children, and purchased from the government.

On September 29, the comprehensive group of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council released the 2020 version of the national influenza prevention and control plan (hereinafter referred to as the "plan"). This is the third year in a row that China has released a national influenza prevention and control program. According to the plan, influenza vaccination is an effective means to prevent and control influenza.

Different from the common cold, influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease, fever and systemic symptoms are more obvious, seriously endangering people's health.

Wang Chen, President of Peking Union Medical College, Academician Wang Chen, an expert in respiratory diseases and critical care medicine, and Professor Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of infection of Shanghai Huashan Hospital, have repeatedly recommended influenza vaccination.

Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and prevention, said recently that the demand for influenza vaccination has increased significantly this year, and Beijing has also increased the procurement of vaccines. The amount of vaccine purchased at one's own expense was twice as much as that of last year. However, the number of vaccines delivered in batches increased by 21% compared with last year.

Feng Luzhao, executive vice president of the school of medicine and public health of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, said the annual influenza vaccination rate in China is between 2% and 3%, and it is expected to reach 4% this year.

In this context, Hua'an Securities believes that at present, the penetration rate of influenza vaccine in China is low. With the increase of approved manufacturers, the increase of production capacity and the provision of free vaccination for key groups in regions with strong economic strength, there is a large space for industry growth, and the future market size will exceed 10 billion yuan. Tianfeng Securities believes that the public's attention and demand for influenza vaccine may increase significantly this year, and it is optimistic that the sales of influenza vaccine will exceed expectations this year.

Supply and demand docking mechanism waiting for innovation

However, with regard to the imbalance between the supply and demand of influenza vaccines, vaccine experts and vaccine manufacturers have told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the current situation is basically finalized.

"The production capacity is basically determined at the time of workshop construction. The increase of output can only be achieved by prolonging the production season, so it can not solve the current situation. Because of the extension of the production season, the batch issuance of vaccines produced later will also be delayed accordingly. " A person in charge of a vaccine manufacturer pointed out.

According to reports, vaccine manufacturers need to determine the R & D and production plan of influenza vaccine in the next influenza season according to the recommendation of who every year.

At present, although there are new gene recombination techniques, the mainstream technology in China is still chicken embryos (special eggs hatched about 10 days after fertilization). As the most mature influenza vaccine technology, chicken embryo technology was born in the 1940s. The influenza vaccine produced is safe, effective and low-cost, but the cycle is long, usually in 4-6 months, and will be limited by the supply of chicken embryos. In this way, the earliest time to market influenza vaccine every year is in June and July.

Such a long period also makes it difficult for vaccine enterprises to adjust production flexibly according to demand. Since the influenza vaccine is only valid for one year, and the influenza virus strains are changing every year, if the vaccine of the previous year is not used up, it must be destroyed, and all the vaccines put into production may lead to overproduction. From the perspective of production enterprises, 20% of scrapping is likely to lead to losses, and dare not expand production when the demand is not determined.

In fact, in addition to product loss, there will be medical waste treatment, transportation and other costs. Therefore, in order to avoid waste, vaccine manufacturers can only determine the production volume of the new year according to the market demand and raw materials of the previous year.

In this regard, Torina believes that a new supply-demand docking mechanism needs to be established: to determine production according to demand and to float appropriately.

Yin Jie analyzed to the 21st century economic reporter that through digital matching, the government and enterprises can understand the demand of vaccination population and the distribution of vaccine supply, so as to optimize the regional demand and supply.

It is understood that the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France and other countries have established a pre ordering system to order the vaccine needed for the next influenza season 7-10 months in advance. Yin Jie also said that digital matching can be carried out from the source of orders, and a linkage mechanism between supply and demand can be established, so that enterprises can prepare for production in advance and carry out order based supply.

"There will also be some changes in vaccine demand, because the vaccine production cycle is long, and the data collected in March may change in September. Enterprises can consider optimizing the process from the production process and digital supply-demand matching, and make real-time adjustments," Yin said

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