As Soon As Possible, False Data And False Quality Should Be Publicized

The core point of this paper

1. The development of live e-commerce is far from the turning point and will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend;

2. The ability of supply chain is the key factor to decide the anchor's life and death;

3. The growth rate of live e-commerce is too fast, data fraud, false publicity, quality problems and so on need to be standardized as soon as possible.

"Get up! Wake up! I can't sleep tonight. I can't sleep for hundreds of yuan!"

"World alarm clock" Li Jiaqi urged hundreds of millions of netizens to order goods before live broadcast. No one thought that the opening of this year's double 11 is so lively.

According to the Taobao live broadcast list, Li Jiaqi and Weiya received 162 million and 148 million person time views respectively during the live broadcast from October 20 to October 21. The total sales volume of the National Day films is nearly 2.9 billion yuan, which is nearly 70 million yuan.

This is also a few months ago, Li Jiaqi surpassed Weiya in live data, becoming the "strongest worker" on the first day of the "double 11" pre-sale.

After experiencing the suspension of broadcasting due to illness, assistant single flight, and past doubt, Li Jiaqi once again proved the strength of his "first brother" in live broadcasting with goods. Also let people see that the development of live e-commerce is far from the top.

The turning point of the trillion market is not yet reached

2016 is known as the first year of live broadcasting. In this year, Li Jiaqi signed up with meione to become a beauty anchor.

Taobao's exploration in live delivery with goods also started this year. "From 2016 to 2018, the transaction volume growth driven by Taobao live broadcast has been more than 150%, but the absolute transaction scale was relatively small before, and it was not widely concerned by the capital market and the consumer public." Taobao live MCN operation director Li Ming introduced.

In 2019, live delivery with goods will break out in all major platforms. The anchor ecosystem of "two super and multi strong" has been gradually established. Weiya has become the anchor of ＂ Taobao platform, while Li Jiaqi is out of the circle with the help of short video.

The epidemic situation in 2020 will push the live e-commerce to the forefront. According to the survey report of iResearch, the number of users of live network broadcast increased sharply during the epidemic period, and nearly 30% of the respondents watched live broadcast with goods almost every day.

Hao Jianbin, director of the industry research center of Ali Research Institute, believes that there are three sources of value for live e-commerce.

First of all, it lies in the benefits of scale. In the past, the sales of e-commerce were fragmented. Now, there will be millions of sales in a few minutes in the live broadcasting room. Under this scale benefit, the cost will certainly be reduced.

Secondly, it is to disintegrate. The original industrial chain is offline, through multi-level price increase distribution; now, through the live broadcast room, the goods are directly transferred to consumers, and the intermediate channel is compressed, so that users can enjoy low-cost welfare.

Finally, it is the service premium. Offline, Li Jiaqi can only serve one customer at a time, but on-line live broadcast can reach millions or even tens of millions of people. In this process, everyone is actually enjoying high-end services at zero cost.

In recent years, e-commerce platforms have become more and more "routine" from receiving coupons, 50% discount for the whole venue and full reduction activities, to password red packets, team PK and cat upgrading. And Li Jiaqi's role is more like the friends of consumers, they help you color test, bargain for you, remind you to buy, so that people save a lot of "accounting" time.

"Li Jiaqi will tell us how to buy is the most cost-effective." This is an important reason why many netizens doze off and stay up at night in front of Li Jiaqi's studio.

Not long ago, Li Jiaqi was deeply questioned for various reasons.

On the one hand, traffic is divided up. Since the beginning of this year, he has always been dedicated in the number of live broadcast, the number of viewers and other data are not as good as Weiya, more because of repeated physical conditions and many times stopped broadcasting.

On the other hand, there are many negative news, such as calling the wrong guest's name, not sticking to the pot live broadcast "overturning", assistant Fu Peng's flying alone, and Li Jiaqi's voice is endless.

At the same time, after the epidemic, people's life gradually returned to the right track, and the attention to live broadcast began to decline. Coupled with the frequent hot search of the Star Live car rollover incident, people began to doubt, is the popularity of live e-commerce just a "flash in the pan"?

Today, Li Jiaqi has proved the strength of his "first brother" with his first day of pre-sale of "double 11", which is only the beginning of the activity.

"Now the development of e-commerce live broadcasting industry is far from reaching the turning point of the industry." Li Ming said, "the transaction volume of tmall's double 11 in 2019 is 263.5 billion yuan, of which the transaction volume guided by Taobao live broadcast is less than 20 billion yuan, accounting for only 7%, so there is still a lot of room for the development of live e-commerce."

According to the report jointly released by KPMG and Ali Research Institute, the overall scale of live e-commerce will reach 1.05 trillion yuan in 2020, and will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend, and will expand to nearly 2 trillion yuan by 2021.

From "people with goods" to "goods with people"

With the fierce competition for traffic from various platforms, the delivery logic of live e-commerce has begun to change subtly.

Compared with traditional e-commerce, live e-commerce has a shorter link and higher conversion rate. However, in the final analysis, the anchor is also a "middleman" between businesses and consumers, and there is still room for this link to be shortened.

An obvious trend is that Taobao is changing from supporting anchor with goods to guiding merchants to broadcast themselves.

Business self broadcast is the mainstay of Taobao's live broadcast, and it is also the unique live broadcast ecology of Taobao. More and more businesses realize that live broadcasting can drive sales growth, so they begin to try to do live broadcasting by themselves.

"The epidemic has actually accelerated this process. We once thought that it might not be suitable for e-commerce live broadcasting industry, especially 3C digital, which is partial to standard products. In fact, the growth of e-commerce live broadcasting is very fast this year." "Businesses will become a very important outbreak point for us," Li said

In this track, the current Taobao opponent is not pinduoduo, but Shuo Yin and fast hand.

Fast start to test the water e-commerce business in 2018, with a transaction volume of more than 35 billion yuan in 2019 and a target of 250 billion yuan in 2020. Simba has more than 65 million fans, and the total transaction volume of live delivery in 2019 will reach 13.3 billion yuan.

Customized supply chain system is an important support for its high sales volume. Simba often emphasizes that only with an excellent supply chain can we support high-quality live e-commerce content, "without good goods, we can't bring people. Goods are more important than anything else.".

The live broadcast e-commerce started late but grew rapidly. Especially after this year's epidemic, celebrities such as Luo Yonghao, Wang Zulan, Chen he and other celebrities were successively signed to carry out live delivery, and a series of policies were issued to support new arrivals.

The recommendation mechanism of Shuo Yin highlights the characteristics of "carrying people with goods". When a user searches for a certain product, Shuo Yin will push a batch of live broadcasting rooms selling the same products, so that users can "shop around". The price and quality of pass are not good enough.

It can be seen that live delivery with goods will eventually have to work on "goods". The ability of supply chain becomes the key factor to decide the anchor's life and death. If we don't get enough brands and low enough price, we will lose in the fierce competition.

This is also why Li Jiaqi and Weiya are extremely strict in terms of selection, and even haggle over each other in terms of price. The staff of Li Jiaqi's team once disclosed that "there is a 100 person critical team" and "only 5% of every 100 products will stay". Li Jiaqi himself once called out to the brand in the live broadcast: "if you want to do it, do it; if you don't, don't participate in the double 11."

Source: Sina Weibo @ Li Jiaqi Austin

But the price is too low to occupy the profit space of the merchants, and the contradiction between the brand and the anchor constantly breaks out. Some businessmen once complained about Li Jiaqi. On the day of "double 11", the link fee was 150000, and the share proportion was 20%. They cooperated with Li Jiaqi five times and lost three times. On the same day, they even lost 500000.

It's time to squeeze the water

Many third-party organizations have different statistical caliber and results on the live broadcast data of Li Jiaqi and Weiya, but they are basically more than 3 billion yuan, and the total number of viewers is about 300 million. However, many people have questioned the data.

For example, it doesn't mean that 300 million people watched the live broadcast. Because the data is not de duplicated, and the statistics are cumulative viewing times, and many consumers switch back and forth between the two live broadcasting rooms, and each time they enter the live broadcasting room is counted as one viewing, the actual number of viewers is difficult to estimate.

In the view of Li Chengdong, an analyst in the e-commerce industry, the sales of the anchors are generally too high. Because most of the anchors give the order amount when they send the official war report, the actual payment amount and the final completed order are not so much. Among the Gmv values disclosed by each platform, there are about 30% outstanding orders, 10% return orders and 10% brush orders.

He believes that even for Li Jiaqi and Weiya, the real data may only be 67% of the amount disclosed. This may be high, because there are still a lot of anchors who ask someone to brush up the bill in order to increase the pit fee, which is a complete data fraud.

In addition to this problem, the most common problem is that the products are not delivered and the quality is not paid.

In September last year, Li Jiaqi was questioned by consumers for publicizing "Yangcheng hairy crab" into "Yangcheng Lake hairy crab". Although the studio soon issued a statement explaining and apologizing, it still caused a lot of negative effects.

In this year's "double 11" pre-sale activities, Li Jiaqi was once again accused of selling a big brand cosmetics supply channel is not correct. The price of the same product in Li Jiaqi's studio is 789 yuan, which is 291 yuan lower than 1080 yuan in Weiya's studio. The price of the same product sold by most platforms and anchors is much higher than that.

Li Jiajian did not get a reply from the official customer service provider. For Li Jiaqi live studio supply is actually a certain overseas shopping website, not the official brand.

The growth rate of live e-commerce is too fast, and the management standards need to be improved.

On October 20, the State Administration of Market Supervision announced the measures for the supervision and administration of online transactions (Draft for comments). It is clear that "when meeting certain conditions, other network service providers such as online social networking and webcast shall perform the responsibilities of the operators of online trading platforms in accordance with the law", and stipulates that "the live webcast service providers shall provide a look back function for the online trading activities carried out by using the Webcast".

"With the continuous boom of live e-commerce, it is foreseeable that more stringent regulation will be included." In this regard, Wang Wei, a special researcher of the e-commerce research center of Netcom and senior partner of Beijing Yingke (Hangzhou) law firm, said.

Strict regulatory requirements will, to a certain extent, aggravate the survival of the fittest in the whole industry. "With the help of a more professional team, head anchors can better adapt to the entire regulatory environment, while some small anchors with weak strength and uneven product sales quality may gradually face the market elimination."

epilogue

At present, the Matthew effect is serious in the live broadcasting field, and the top 2% of the head anchors occupy nearly 80% of the market share.

Sydney, Taobao's anchor, ranked the third in the list of products on the first day of the "double 11" pre-sale, has been widened by Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi in terms of sales, number of viewers, fans and other data indicators, not to mention the future anchor.

Head anchors have already gone beyond carrying goods, and they themselves have become a brand.

Li Jiaqi has been deeply bound with the domestic cosmetics brands such as perfect diary and huaxizi, and has developed a number of CO branded products. Weiya is busy on variety shows, helping farmers for public welfare, and expanding her influence. Simba, on the other hand, has put more energy into the supply chain, successively launched "xinyouzhi strict selection" and "Xinxuan supply chain platform".

In the trillions of live e-commerce industry chain, they are no longer willing to be "workers".