Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Decline Is Good, But The Market Negotiation Price Is Falling

Since the middle of September, the domestic ethylene glycol inventory in the main port decreased slowly. After a National Day holiday, the international crude oil went up and the cost was supported. In addition, the good performance of the downstream polyester end and the polyester staple fiber futures were added, the market sentiment was optimistic, the market price went up, and the buying mentality played an important role. The enterprises and the port shipped well, and the main port inventory remained in the following time However, near the end of the month, the market price fell in reverse, catching up with the root cause, the downstream demand was lower than expected, and the increase in supply was obviously caused.

Figure 1 Comparison of domestic ethylene glycol inventory in main ports in East China

Source: Longzhong information

The total amount of MEG in East China decreased by 183000 tons from last Monday. In detail, Zhangjiagang 702800 tons, Taicang 156000 tons, Ningbo 98000 tons, Shanghai and Changshu 84200 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou 111000 tons. According to Longzhong information data, ethylene glycol is still in the stock removal stage in the fourth quarter, and the follow-up shipping schedule shows that the import volume is expected to decrease. In addition, the domestic new production capacity has not been put into full swing, and the number of terminal orders is acceptable, so ethylene glycol is expected to continue to go to the warehouse in the later period.

Up to now, the newly added production capacity of Zhongke refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Tianye 400000 tons will be released at the end of October and the beginning of November. At that time, the overall supply will increase significantly. In order to restrain the overall unloading speed of main ports in East China, the rebound of ethylene glycol is limited. In addition, in the medium and long term, there are still a large number of ethylene glycol production capacity and restart plans in China. The 300000 ton plant of Shanxi woneng was restarted, the capacity of Yongjin in Yongcheng of Henan Province was expanded by 200000 tons, the 300000 tons of sanning in Hubei Province and the 300000 tons of Weihe in Shaanxi Province were put into operation. After December, especially in January to February of next year, the load of terminal loom has obviously weakened, and the polyester demand will be at that time The amount of ethylene glycol will again face accumulation expectations.

in summary, Foreign public health events have affected demand expectations, international crude oil has continued to fall in recent years, and affected domestic polyester end orders; in addition, the domestic supply side of incremental expectations compared to determine the negative; domestic ethylene glycol market prices fell high, short-term negotiations around the focus of 3700-3800.

PS: the changes in the market are mostly due to speculation