Interpretation: Both The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index And The Non Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rose In November

On November 30, 2020, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

With the remarkable achievements made in the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, China's economy has continued to recover steadily. In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 52.1%, 56.4% and 55.7%, respectively, higher than 0.7%, 0.2% and 0.4% of the previous month. The three major indexes were all at the high points of the year, higher than the critical point for 9 consecutive months.

　　 1、 Purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry increased significantly

In November, the PMI of the manufacturing industry was 52.1%, and the sub indexes were generally improved. The market vitality of the manufacturing industry was further strengthened, and the recovery growth was significantly accelerated. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the number of PMI in the expansion range increased to 19, and the prosperity of manufacturing industry expanded. Main features of the month:

First, both sides of production and demand work together. The production index and new order index were 54.7% and 53.9%, respectively, 0.8% and 1.1% higher than the previous month, both rising to the high point of the year. The difference between the two indexes has narrowed month by month since June, from 2.5% to 0.8%, indicating that the manufacturing industry continues to enhance its vitality and the supply and demand cycle continues to improve. From the perspective of the industry, the production index and new order index of pharmaceutical, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communication electronic equipment, instruments and meters related to high-tech manufacturing are all higher than 56.0%, which are in a relatively high boom zone, and the production and demand release is accelerated, and the overall leading and driving role of the manufacturing industry is further enhanced.

Second, the import and export landscape has been steadily rising. This month, the new export order index and import index were 51.5% and 50.9%, respectively higher than 0.5% and 0.1% of the previous month, both of which were the high points of the year, and they were in the expansion range for three consecutive months, maintaining the trend of monthly recovery, and China's import and export continued to recover.

Third, the price index has increased greatly. With the recent general rise in commodity prices, as well as the accelerated production and procurement activities of enterprises, the purchase price of raw materials and the sales price of products in the manufacturing industry increased significantly this month. The purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 62.6% and 56.5%, respectively, which were 3.8 and 3.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, both of which were the highest points in the year. From the industry situation, driven by the demand of downstream industries, the price rise of upstream products is more obvious. This month, the two price indices of petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing and other industries were all in the high boom range of above 60.0%.

Fourth, the prosperity of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 53.0%, 52.0% and 50.1%, respectively, higher than 0.4%, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage points of the previous month, all of which were above the critical point. The prosperity of enterprises of different sizes recovered. The survey results show that the production and operation situation of small enterprises has improved in this month. The proportion of small enterprises that reflect the shortage of funds is 42.3%, which is 2.6 percentage points lower than that of last month, which is the low point since this year. It shows that the policy measures such as helping enterprises and financial support for small and micro enterprises are effective.

The survey results also show that the recovery of the manufacturing industry is still uneven, among which PMI of textile, clothing and apparel industry has always been below the critical point since this year, and the industry prosperity continues to be weak. In addition, 18.8% of export enterprises reflected the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation, which was 1.7% higher than that of last month. Some enterprises said that with the continuous appreciation of RMB in recent years, their profits were under pressure, and export orders decreased.

2. The index of non manufacturing business activities rose slightly

In November, the non manufacturing business activity index was 56.4%, higher than 0.2% of the previous month. For four consecutive months, the non manufacturing business activity index was higher than 55.0%.

The recovery of the service industry continued to improve. The business activity index of the service industry was 55.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and has been in a relatively high boom range since September. On the whole, under the organic combination of standardized and accurate prevention and control and local emergency response, the consumer market gradually recovered in an orderly manner, and the recovery pace of the service industry was steady. From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunication, radio and television satellite transmission service, finance and other industries is in the high prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and the total business volume has increased significantly; at the same time, the business activity index of real estate, ecological protection and environmental management industries has dropped below the critical point, and the business prosperity has declined. From the price point of view, the sales price index was 50.9%, 2.0 percentage points higher than the previous month, and rose above the critical point for the first time since the outbreak of the epidemic, indicating that the market demand for the service industry continues to pick up. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities was 61.1%, higher than 61.0% for five consecutive months, indicating that most service enterprises are optimistic about the development of the industry in the near future.

The construction industry has recovered from a high level. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.5%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, returning to the high economic range, and the construction industry production activities generally accelerated. From the perspective of labor demand, the employment index was 54.4%, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, reflecting the increase in labor demand of construction enterprises in order to meet the production needs and ensure the construction progress.

　 3. The comprehensive PMI output index rebounded for four consecutive months

In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 55.7%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to accelerate, and the recovery trend was further consolidated. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 54.7% and 56.4% respectively.