"No Speculation On Housing And Housing" In Big Cities And Rental Housing Will Become The "Target" Of Regulation And Control

The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 16 to 18. In the deployment of next year's key work, the meeting devoted a large part to real estate.

The meeting pointed out that the outstanding housing problems in big cities should be solved next year. Housing problem is related to people's livelihood. We should adhere to the positioning that the house is for living, not for speculation, and take measures according to local conditions and take various measures simultaneously to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The meeting also pointed out that we should attach great importance to the construction of indemnificatory rental housing, accelerate the improvement of the long-term rental housing policy, gradually make rental housing enjoy the same rights in public services, and standardize the development of the long-term rental housing market. Land supply should be inclined to the construction of rental housing. The land use plan for rental housing should be listed separately, and the use of collective construction land and idle land owned by enterprises and institutions should be explored to build rental housing. Both state-owned and private enterprises should play a role. We should reduce the tax burden of rental housing, rectify the order of rental market, standardize market behavior, and reasonably regulate and control the rent level.

This is the central economic work conference in recent years, the most ink on real estate.

Among them, in addition to continuing to emphasize "housing without speculation", the meeting focused on housing issues in big cities for the first time, and comprehensively deployed the supervision of the rental market. Combined with the recent market changes, these two works are quite targeted and will become the policy highlights worthy of attention.

In the past few years, the real estate market has been running at a high level continuously, but the richness and flexibility of the property market regulation are also constantly strengthened, which also ensures that the market can maintain stability in the rapid development. Industry insiders believe that the market has gradually become accustomed to "keeping pace with regulation", and stability and standardization will become the main theme in the future.

Resilience and chaos

Affected by the new crown epidemic, since this year, the real estate market has shown a trend of first restraining and then rising.

From January to February this year, the scale of commercial housing sales in China once fell by nearly 40%. From the second quarter, with the gradual control of the epidemic situation and the implementation of loose monetary policy, the real estate market gradually recovered.

By August this year, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in China exceeded the same period last year for the first time. In the first 11 months of this year, for the first time, the cumulative sales volume and sales area of commercial housing in China have both increased positively for the first time. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing was 1508.34 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 14.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%.

Most institutions believe that under this resilience, the scale of transactions in the real estate market this year will exceed that of last year and remain at a historical high.

There are two main reasons for the rapid rise in sales. According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, the rapid warming of the early market is mainly due to the concentrated release of demand suppressed by the epidemic situation. Among them, the loose monetary environment stimulates the process of demand release.

In the later period, the market continued to be hot because of the stimulation of another policy. In August this year, the Prudential Management Policy of real estate finance represented by the "three red lines" began to be launched. For the purpose of deleveraging, many real estate enterprises choose to stimulate sales by way of profit sharing, which makes the market heat continue from September to now.

But in the process, some chaos will inevitably appear.

In the second quarter of this year, housing prices in some hot cities rose too fast. Due to the "upside down" of the first and second-hand house prices, some new housing projects were warmly welcomed when they opened, and made the panic spread to a certain extent. At the same time, the listing price of some second-hand housing sources has also pushed up the transaction price.

Therefore, since July, regulatory authorities and local governments have frequently introduced regulatory policies. In addition, the monetary policy has changed from loose to neutral, and the market has cooled rapidly. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, from July to November this year, there were 32, 32, 35, 22 and 33 times of real estate regulation and control policies.

By the end of the year, the real estate market has shown a steady trend of "price stability and volume rise", but some hot cities still have occasional "sparks". For example, Shenzhen once had a strong investment atmosphere, while Guangzhou's second-hand house price growth led 70 large and medium-sized cities in November.

"Strong management and control" era of leasing market

In fact, the regulation frequency of the property market at the end of the year has not decreased, but the specifications have been raised again. The proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on formulating the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035, which was issued on November 4, pointed out that we should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation. We should promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market by combining rent and purchase with urban policies.

On December 3, Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, held a forum at the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, stressing that "housing and housing do not stir fry". The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on December 11 said that "we should promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market".

The central economic work conference again mentioned "housing does not stir fry", is considered to be the continuation of the existing regulatory tone. This is also the central economic work conference for three consecutive years mentioned "housing does not fry.".

Zhang Dawei told the 21st century economic report that this shows that the future property market policy will continue to crack down on investment speculation and protect real residential demand. The regulatory authorities have given flexibility to local conditions. Even if the policy is slightly adjusted, it will be in favor of the rigid demand.

In addition, the meeting for the first time clearly put forward "to solve the outstanding housing problems in big cities". Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute, told the 21st century economic report that in 2020, under the background of loose monetary policy, capital will inevitably overflow into the real estate market, and big cities will become the "high point" for funds to rush for. The contradiction between supply and demand of housing in big cities is big, and the rapid rise of housing prices will block the inflow of population to a certain extent, which is not conducive to urban development. Therefore, the regulatory authorities will promote the solution of housing problems in big cities to an important strategic position.

He believes that to solve the housing problem in big cities, we should also pay attention to "adjusting measures to local conditions and taking multiple measures simultaneously". Summing up the experience of multi land regulation since the second half of 2020, the policy will not only restrict the demand side, but also stabilize the market fluctuation by increasing the supply of residential land, building talent housing, rental housing and other supply side means, and promoting regional coordinated development.

Most respondents believe that after years of practice, today's real estate market regulation and control "combination fist" means are rich and diverse, the policy department's ability to monitor and perceive the market is more sensitive, and the operation is more leisurely. Under the existing policy framework, the real estate market will continue to operate smoothly, and there will be no significant fluctuations in volume and price.

It is worth noting that the conference also used 168 words to specifically refer to the rental market.

In recent years, the leasing market has developed rapidly under the policy guidance of both rent and purchase. However, due to vicious competition, lack of supervision and other reasons, the rental market is in chaos. In the past two years, some operators of long-term rental apartments have broken their capital chain, even run away, and some operators such as eggshell and free will have disputes. The rights and interests of landlords, tenants, financial institutions and employees are damaged, which has a great social impact.

The meeting proposed to rectify the order of the rental market, regulate market behavior and regulate the level of rent. The meticulous management and control is rare in the past. Some practitioners told the 21st century economic report that the era of "strong control" in the leasing market is coming, and the leasing industry is expected to bid farewell to the era of "savage growth".

However, at the same time, the meeting also proposed to strengthen the supply of rental housing through multiple channels, and emphasized the same right to rent and purchase again, which was understood as a good thing.

Xu Xiaole believes that the regulatory authorities still hold a positive attitude of supporting the leasing market, and the future supervision of the leasing market will be institutionalized and normalized. First, the operation supervision of leasing institutions will be further strengthened, especially for the management and control of operational risks, and the supervision before, during and after the event shall be strengthened; second, cultivation and standardization shall be carried out simultaneously, including financial and tax support for leasing enterprises and business behavior norms; third, guiding price and management of rent level to prevent the rent level from rising too fast and affecting residents' affordability 。

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