Dialogue With Qianhai Kaiyuan Fan Jie: How To See The Logic Of 2021 Biomedical Industry

Fan Jie, who graduated from Fudan University as an undergraduate and graduated from Peking Union Medical College as a graduate student, realized that she had a stronger logical thinking ability, was more sensitive to numbers, and had more interests in the financial field, so she transferred to Hong Kong University of science and technology to study economics.

In 2014, Fan Jie joined the Qianhai open source fund, starting from a researcher in the pharmaceutical industry to a fund manager assistant and fund manager. At present, she manages five funds with a management scale of 8.456 billion yuan.

The 21st century economic reporter interviewed Fan Jie a few days ago. In terms of investment, Fan Jie recalled the changes in the past three years. At first, she was afraid to add more positions and dare not chase higher stocks. Later, she overcame her inner worries. She firmly held the leading enterprises in the high prosperity track by the way of research driven investment and selecting individual stocks from bottom to top. Finally, she achieved 121.61% income in 2020. According to Morningstar data, Qianhai Kaiyuan medical and health a2020 has the best performance in the same category (industry mix medicine).

She analyzed: "investment itself is to face a lot of uncertainty, which is also an important part of investment. Looking for certainty in uncertainty will bring about excess returns."

Logical choice under the change of industry

《 21st century: Mr. Buffett said that if you have to choose an indicator, you will use ROE (return on equity). In your opinion, what is the standard of excellent companies and how to find bull stocks?

Fan Jie: this indicator of Warren Buffett is a universally applicable indicator, which is applicable to various industries.

In my opinion, the pharmaceutical industry has its particularity. For example, innovative pharmaceutical enterprises need to pay attention to the product pipeline itself, whether the company's product pipeline can support its long-term development, and whether these product pipelines are at a relatively advanced level in the same industry.

For some medical service enterprises, it depends on their operation level and efficiency, and whether they can support the expanding business map. Therefore, different types of pharmaceutical enterprises have different research methods.

I have two ways to observe the view of leading stocks: first, this track is the Red Sea market, and the competition among enterprises in the Red Sea market is fierce. If a company can occupy a relatively large market share and open a large gap with the second and third companies, the enterprise can be regarded as a leading enterprise. The reasons for its formation are various, which may be the product ratio More advanced, strong executive management or strong sales team. Second, this track is a blue ocean track, and there are not many companies. At this time, we need to pay attention to the enterprise's grasp of the forward-looking, and make a correct judgment at the turning point of the market. Such an enterprise can open a gap with its competitors and can also be regarded as a potential leading enterprise.

21st century: pharmaceutical industry is one of the fastest growing industries in recent years. What changes have you seen?

Fan Jie: in the past five years, the income or profit of the pharmaceutical industry has maintained a double-digit growth. The growth is due to two factors: one is the continuous expansion of terminal demand; the other is the improvement of everyone's ability to pay and willingness to pay.

From a relatively micro level, the whole industrial structure has changed greatly in the past five years. The difference between the top ten pharmaceutical companies with market value before 2015 and the top ten companies with current market value is very big. The logic behind is the change of industrial structure. The policy guidance is more to encourage the innovation of industrial institutions. Some companies with advanced technology are in this process It has developed and expanded.

Biopharmaceutical industry research is mainly based on bottom-up stock selection. It is a basic starting point to study clearly the industry track, competitors and product characteristics of the company. The other is that we need to be clear about the current policy orientation and the starting point of policy makers to judge the general trend of the industry in the future.

In the century of biology, we should be optimistic about two directions

"21st century": in the past year, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry was relatively large. How to see the market of pharmaceutical sector in 2021?

Fan Jie: I think the pharmaceutical sector in 2021 is more of a structural opportunity, not likely to see the general rise of the past year.

First of all, the impact of the epidemic on the production and operation of enterprises is basically over, and the possibility of large-scale outbreak in China in the future is not very great. Most of the enterprises in the pharmaceutical industry, whose income source is still domestic, have basically recovered from the negative impact of the epidemic situation to the state of normal operation.

The other is from the perspective of the situation abroad, because vaccines have begun to be inoculated in succession, the overseas epidemic prevention and control tends to be optimistic, so the marginal impact of the overseas epidemic on the pharmaceutical industry in 2021 is also weakening.

Another is from the perspective of policy, because in 2020, the centralized purchase of high-value consumables and the negotiation of medical insurance innovative drugs have been successively carried out, so some relevant policies will have some pressure on the short-term performance of the industry, and these pressures may gradually be reflected in the enterprise's statements in 2021.

Therefore, the overall judgment of the general rise of the industry in 2021 may be relatively small, and more structural market.

21st century: in the pharmaceutical industry, which sub sectors are more optimistic in the future?

Fan Jie: as a biology student, I feel that the 21st century is the century of biology. At this stage, there are a lot of innovations in the industry, and the idea of investing in biomedicine is not the same as in the past. In the past, the biomedical industry was divided into pharmaceutical products, equipment, services and other sub industries according to a relatively extensive framework. However, great changes are taking place in the pharmaceutical industry, and more and more research has been done The deeper the industry is, the more detailed the industry is, and the classification standards are different. In the more subdivided fields, I prefer two tracks:

One is the innovation of enterprises in the industrial chain, including pharmaceutical enterprises, equipment enterprises, service providers, etc. from the perspective of enterprise management, the most practical means for pharmaceutical enterprises to break through the tide of industrial upgrading is to carry out innovation.

The other is consumption upgrading. After the per capita GDP has exceeded $10000, people's desire for a better life is increasing, so they will pay for things that are not necessary but can increase life experience. For example, medical beauty is a typical consumption upgrade. In the past, this kind of subdivision was subject to the consumer's willingness to spend and the ability to pay. The penetration rate among the population is not high, and it is expected to get higher in the future Market penetration.

?