Index Release: The PMI Of Manufacturing Industry In January Was 51.3%, Which Was In The Expansion Range For 11 Consecutive Months

On January 31, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In January, the overall business climate continued to stay in the expansion range. The purchasing manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index of China's manufacturing industry were 51.3%, 52.4% and 52.8%, respectively, down 0.6%, 3.3 and 2.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, all of which remained above the boom and bust line.

In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3%, but it was above the critical point for 11 consecutive months and 51.0% for 7 consecutive months. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the traditional off-season of China's manufacturing industry was around the Spring Festival, and the recent local clustering epidemic had a certain impact on the production and operation of some enterprises, and the overall expansion momentum of the manufacturing industry slowed down.

"In January, the PMI index continued to decline, but remained above the boom and bust line, indicating that China's economy continued to maintain a steady recovery. Looking from the historical trend, the PMI index in January of most years is lower than that of last month, which may be related to the seasonal characteristics at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. " Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, said.

In January, the expansion of both sides of production and demand of manufacturing industry was weaker than that of last month. The production index and new order index were 53.5% and 52.3% respectively, down 0.7% and 1.3% compared with the previous month, and remained in the expansion range. From the regional situation, Hebei, Jilin, Heilongjiang and other places were more affected by the epidemic this month, and some enterprises reported that production, procurement, transportation and other activities were facing difficulties in the near future.

In January, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 52.1% and 51.4% respectively, which were lower than 0.6% and 1.3% of the previous month, but both were in the boom range. The PMI of large enterprises was at 52.0% and above for 8 consecutive months, which played an important role in supporting the steady recovery of the manufacturing industry. The PMI of small enterprises was 49.4%, which was 0.6% higher than that of the previous month, but it remained below the critical point and the business climate was still weak.

"It is worth noting that the current enterprise costs are facing the problem of rapid increase." China logistics information center expert Wen Tao said. In January, the purchasing price index and the ex factory price index of main raw materials were 67.1% and 57.2%, respectively, which were lower than 0.9% and 1.7% of the previous month, but remained at a higher level.

In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 52.4%, lower than 3.3% of the previous month, and the recovery of non manufacturing industry slowed down.

Affected by the local clustering epidemic, the business activity index of the service industry was 3.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, accounting for 51.1%. Zhao Qinghe said that although the service industry still maintained the recovery trend, the prosperity level has declined. The business activity index of producer service industry and life service industry in this month were 56.2% and 49.1%, respectively, lower than 2.0% and 6.3% of the previous month. The producer service industry still maintained a high prosperity level, while the domestic service industry fell back to the contraction range.

Wu Wei, an expert from China Logistics Information Center, said that at present, China has accumulated rich experience in epidemic prevention and control, which can better control the spread of the epidemic. The impact of the epidemic on service consumption related industries is short-lived, and the service consumption related industries are expected to recover after the festival.

In January, the composite PMI output index was 52.8%, lower than 2.3 percentage points of the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 53.5% and 52.4% respectively.

Wen Tao said that with the construction and improvement of the new development pattern, the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry will continue to promote, and the economic growth trend is better.

Zhou Maohua, financial market analyst of China Everbright Bank, believes that as the Spring Festival holiday and epidemic prevention measures will continue to restrain manufacturing and service activities, it is expected that the PMI index of manufacturing and service industries will fall further in February. After March and April, the recovery of domestic economic activities is expected to accelerate gradually.

Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that in the next stage, macro policies should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, increase precision support, and accelerate the recovery of manufacturing industry and small enterprises.