Investors Need To Lower Their Expectations In The Year Of The Ox

The year of the ox fund net value appears large-scale drop, many star fund became the disaster area.

On February 22, Baotuan shares fell sharply. According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, the net value of 504 funds (A / C shares are calculated separately) fell by more than 5%, involving many star fund managers, including Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun, Xiao Nan, Wang Zonghe, Feng Bo, GE LAN, Zhou Yingbo, Mao Wei, etc.

If the time is extended to three trading days since the year of the ox, as many as 1996 funds have fallen by more than 5%, involving more star fund managers, including Liu Gesong, Zhao Yi, Yuan Fang, Huang Xingliang, etc.

Yang Xiaolei, market strategy analyst of Hua'an fund, said, "if the follow-up market continues to fall, then it is not ruled out that the follow-up will cause certain redemption pressure on the industry."

However, most of the industry insiders interviewed by the 21st century economic report believe that Baotuan shares have not collapsed, but that the market situation may have come to an end. They still favor Baima leading stocks in the medium and long term, and believe that investment funds are more suitable for long-term holding, not just short-term fluctuations.

Baotuan fund "catastrophe"

According to wind data statistics, the reporter found that on February 22 alone, the net value of 6179 funds fell, accounting for 60%. Mainly equity funds.

On the same day, in the stock funds, 1613 fund net value fell, only 197 fund net value increased. But in the mixed fund, 3892 fund net value fell on the same day, only 245 fund net value increased. Both equity funds and hybrid funds accounted for just 94% of the decline in net worth on February 22.

Overall, on February 22, Yimin's quality upgrading, the largest decline in net worth, fell 8.02%, followed by 7.90% in China Merchants liquor, 7.74% in Yimin innovation advantage and 7.73% in Penghua liquor ETF.

In the three trading days of the year of the ox, according to wind data, the cumulative decline of 141 funds was more than 10%, and that of 1996 funds was more than 5%.

It is worth noting that not only the general equity funds, but also a large number of funds managed by star fund managers have fallen sharply, especially those involving liquor, medicine and other early group stocks.

For example, Zhang Kun, the "first brother of public offering", became the first fund manager to manage more than 100 billion yuan because of the scale of active equity funds managed by him exceeded 120 billion yuan.

On February 22, e fund blue chips managed by Zhang Kun fell 5.05%. During the three trading days of the year of the ox, e fund's blue chip selection fell by 6.44%.

Liu Yanchun, a star fund manager with a management scale of nearly 80 billion yuan, had a net value decrease of more than 5%, including a decline of 6.44% in the growth of Great Wall Jiying in two years, a decrease of 6.26% in domestic demand growth of Jingshun Great Wall, 6.25% in domestic demand growth No.2 of Jingshun Great Wall, 6.18% in Xinxing growth of Jingshun Great Wall, 6.14% in Jingshun Dingyi and 5.91% in excellent growth of Jingshun Great Wall.

Among them, Jingshun Great Wall emerging growth not only fell by more than 6% on February 22, but also dropped by 10% in the three trading days since the year of the ox.

In contrast, the six funds managed by Liu Yanchun will have an annual return of more than 85% in 2020.

Xiao Nan is known as the "king of consumption". On February 22, the five funds under his banner also fell by more than 5%, including e-fund consumer industry fell by 6.47%, e-fund fell by 6.22%, e-fund's consumer selection fell by 5.68%, e-fund's big health theme fell by 5.44%, and e-fund's Ruiheng fell by 5.43%.

If we extend the time to the first three trading days after the Spring Festival (February 18, 19 and 22), the list of funds with a cumulative decline of 5% also includes: Liu Gesong's seven funds, Zhao Yi's one fund, Yuan Fang's four funds, and Huang Xingliang's Fund

Investors are advised to lower their expectations

There has been a large-scale decline in the fund market, and a large number of funds managed by star fund managers have become a disaster area when group stocks fall. Industry insiders believe that this is a normal phenomenon.

Taking Zhang Kun's blue chip selection of e fund as an example, the top ten heavy positions of the fund in the fourth quarter of last year were Guizhou Maotai, meituan-w, Yanghe shares, Tencent holdings, Wuliangye, Hong Kong stock exchange, Luzhou Laojiao, Hikvision, Aier ophthalmology and Yihai international.

On February 22, all the top 10 blue chip stocks selected by e fund fell.

At the end of the fourth quarter, liquor accounted for four seats in the top 10 stocks of the fund. On February 22, Guizhou Maotai fell by 6.99%, Yanghe shares by 8.56%, Wuliangye by 9.10% and Luzhou Laojiao by 8.94%.

In addition to liquor stocks, all the four Hong Kong stocks held by the fund also fell, with meituan-w down 5.52%, Tencent holdings down 3.71%, Hong Kong stock exchange down 0.79% and Yihai international down 7.32%.

In addition, two of the remaining 10 heavyweights, Hikvision, fell 4.93% and Aier Eye fell 7.41%.

At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, e fund's blue chip stock position was as high as 91.12%, and its holdings were very concentrated. The top 10 heavy positions accounted for 78% of the net asset value of the fund.

Looking back on February 22, liquor and pharmaceutical stocks led the decline. Liquor index (884705. WI) led the decline by 6.61%, with a cumulative decline of 8.79% in the three trading days after the festival; the medical service (consistent rating) index (8841365. WI) fell 4.87% on the same day and 6.92% after the festival.

In this regard, Yang Xiaolei said: "since most fund positions are mainly in the direction of" core assets ", there has been a certain amount of net worth withdrawal since the year of the ox. relatively speaking, the withdrawal of theme funds whose positions are more concentrated in consumer and pharmaceutical industries is relatively large."

In fact, most of the funds that have fallen sharply recently are heavily invested in liquor and pharmaceutical stocks.

For example, there are 5 liquor stocks in Jingshun Changcheng Dingyi managed by Liu Yanchun in the fourth quarter of 2020; e Fangda consumer industry stock fund managed by Xiao Nan also has 5 liquor stocks at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020; Gelan manages the pharmaceutical theme fund.

However, for this wave of Baotuan stocks, according to the reporter's interview, most fund managers are not pessimistic.

On February 22, Penghua liquor ETF fell 7.73%, and Zhang Yuxiang, its fund manager, said: "the recent adjustment of the liquor sector is mainly due to the influence of sentiment and monetary policy."

Zhang Yuxiang believes that the current overseas and domestic monetary policies have a negative impact on the overvalued sectors, and the liquor sector with a large increase in the early stage has a demand for adjustment. The complete actual sales situation during the Spring Festival will take 1-2 weeks to truly summarize from the channels. During the Spring Festival, liquor consumption is good, dynamic sales is good, inventory is low, and price is stable. After releasing negative emotions, the liquor sector will adjust temporarily, and wait for the first quarter business data to be implemented to verify the performance.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out that "because the shares of bailongma rose a lot before the festival, and the group stocks of these funds after the festival all showed a relatively large decline, so the funds with heavy positions also fell relatively large. Because the increase was relatively large before, it is now falling faster."

When Baotuan shares fell sharply, Yang Delong said to reporters: "in the long run, I will continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of Baima shares. In the short term, Baotuan stocks may still be affected by style change, but in the long run, stocks with good performance will continue to rise. So this year, I think the focus of investment is still white dragon horse, or consumption of white horse. I think it is not a problem to invest in them. Investment funds should pay more attention to long-term opportunities rather than short-term fluctuations. "

Many fund companies give investors early vaccination.

"From this year on, we have been emphasizing the need for investors to 'lower their expectations'. After all, after two consecutive years of' fund year ', the market needs a certain rest. From the perspective of the overall allocation of funds, it is suggested that investors should maintain a "balanced allocation" between equity funds and absolute return funds, and grasp the structural opportunities of the market through high-quality fund managers Yang Xiaolei said.

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