PTA Short-Term Trend Also Depends On Cost

After the Spring Festival, affected by the cold wave in North America, the center of gravity of international oil price rose sharply, and the polyester industry chain quickly set off a round of rapid rise. However, the good time was not long. With the high level of crude oil and the weakening macro atmosphere, the polyester Market turned down sharply, and PTA futures fell under pressure. The 2105 contract fell from a high of 4788 yuan / ton at the end of February to 4356 yuan / ton on March 23, a drop of 9 02%, the core logic of this wave is mainly cost driven. The author believes that the cost driven logic is still effective under the current situation that the supply and demand side is intertwined and the processing difference is low.

Strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market

In terms of crude oil, the recent European epidemic situation has been repeated, and the market has become more worried about the oil market demand. In addition, the strong US dollar has led to a pressure drop in international oil prices. However, the short-term active production reduction and long-term passive tightening of the supply side still play a supporting role in crude oil prices. The short-term international oil prices are expected to be mainly adjusted in a wide range. Due to the early benefit recovery of PX link, the willingness of the factory to start operation has been enhanced. However, due to the maintenance of multiple sets of PTA units in the downstream, the supply and demand side of PX has gradually turned into a surplus situation. At present, the market is not clear about the future direction, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong, and the short-term oscillation mainly follows the cost side. Pxn maintained the range of 220-270 USD / T before the positive appeared.

The maintenance of the device has been strengthened

According to the law of previous years, the second quarter of each year is the centralized maintenance period of PTA plant, and the maintenance time is generally two or three weeks. However, if the enterprise benefits are considerable, some manufacturers tend to postpone the maintenance. ACP was reached at $870 / T in March this year, far higher than the level of $705 / T in February. In addition, the price of acetic acid, another raw material of PTA, also showed strong performance, reaching a 10-year high. The cost pressure of PTA plant increased significantly, and the spot processing difference continued to hover around 300 yuan / T. the extremely low processing poor level led to the loss of most units. Since the middle of March, the PTA Market device maintenance news frequently, including Hengli, Yisheng and other large line devices announced annual maintenance plan, the second quarter of the plant maintenance plan is gradually clear. Specifically, from March to June, the planned maintenance capacity of PTA plant reached 18.35 million tons, and the average maintenance time was calculated according to 15 days, and the equivalent output loss was around 750000 tons. In addition to equipment maintenance, recently, the two major head manufacturers have announced that the contract supply in April was reduced to 70% and 80% respectively.

In terms of inventory, due to the maintenance of multiple sets of units at the supply end, PTA social inventory has decreased to 4.111 million tons this week, 130.8 thousand tons lower than the previous value, but the absolute level is still at the historical high level, and there are still many new units in operation plan in this year, and it is expected that the subsequent daily inventory will become normal. In recent years, under the background of stronger basis, the cancellation of warehouse receipts increased, and the outflow of futures inventory accelerated. As of March 23, the volume of PTA warehouse receipts was 351900, equivalent to 1759500 tons of PTA, a decrease of 223000 tons compared with the previous high of 1982500 tons, and the circulation source of goods on the market increased.

Accumulation of polyester varieties increased

As of March 19, the polyester factory load was 94.2%, which was far higher than the same period in previous years. From the inventory point of view, the replenishment action from bottom to top in the industrial chain after the festival drove all kinds of polyester fiber to go to the warehouse quickly. However, due to the sufficient raw material stock in the downstream of polyester and the cooling of purchasing action, the production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were mostly in the second two weeks Around 30%. Polyester production and sales turn weak background, polyester inventory turn up. Specifically, polyester POY inventory rose most significantly. As of March 19, POY inventory index was 14.5 days, with a month on month increase of 5.1 days. FDY and DTY Inventory were both more than 20 days. Although polyester short inventory was still operating at a negative level, it had been relieved a lot during the most serious period of oversold. At present, the short fiber inventory was about - 0.9 days. It can be said that the inventory pressure of polyester sector has appeared.

At present, the inventory of terminal raw materials is at a high level, which can be used until the middle and late April. However, the raw material inventory will be digested sooner or later. Therefore, the market generally has expectations for the release of new terminal orders in April.

Generally speaking, PTA fundamentals are interwoven with each other. Although there is a contraction at the supply end, the pressure on the demand side gradually appears. Under the background of low processing error, the absolute price of short-term PTA is still led by the cost side, focusing on the situation of downstream replenishment in mid and late April.