Is The Myth Of "Dissatisfaction" And "Unbeaten" Of Over 40% New Shares Being Broken In The Year?

? ? ? Listing for enterprises is undoubtedly a highlight in the development process, but if the raised funds are not as expected, the luster of listing will be greatly reduced.

On May 24, joy home (300997), a listed company on the gem, opened online and offline subscription. The company, which is engaged in the R & D, production and sales of canned fruits, vegetable protein drinks, juice drinks, lactic acid bacteria drinks and other food and beverage products, initially plans to raise 1.292 billion yuan for the company's business development and upgrading, of which 150 million yuan is also planned to be used to supplement working capital and repay bank loans.

? ? ? However, after the results of off-line inquiry were released, the final raised funds of the company's listing shrank to 445 million yuan, accounting for 34.4% of the expected amount. After deducting the issuance expenses, the company actually raised only 374 million yuan, deducting 150 million yuan used to repay bank loans and replenish the flow, and there was little capital left for the actual development of the enterprise.

? ? ? Happy home is not an example. According to Ifind statistics, of the 171 companies that have completed the IPO since the beginning of 2021, 72 of them have actually raised less funds than expected. Among them, 13 companies actually raised more than half of the expected funds, accounting for only 29.3% of the funds to be raised.

? ? ? A person in charge of investment banking business of small and medium-sized domestic securities companies told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the situation that the funds raised by enterprises listed on the stock market was not as expected frequently. There were reasons for the price reduction of institutional partnership in the inquiry stage, and there were also misunderstanding of the issuer's own expectations. Many issuers gave the expected pricing with a higher P / E ratio. In addition, the stock price performance of the secondary market, especially the small market value companies, has been relatively low recently, which has further lowered the IPO pricing of individual companies.

Price reduction of institutions

? ? ? The phenomenon of "dissatisfaction" in the batch of listed companies began in the second half of last year. It is considered that the important reason is that institutions hold together to lower prices.

An extreme case is Shangwei Xincai (688585), a listed company on the science and technology innovation board. The company's offering price is 2.49 yuan per share. According to the company's issuance standard, if the issue price is lower by one cent, Shangwei new material will become the first company to be suspended because it fails to meet the listing standard.

The issue price of 2.49 yuan / share is quite mysterious. In September 2020, Shangwei Xincai disclosed the offline inquiry results. The effective quotation of Shangwei Xincai was 2.49 yuan / share, and 2.50 yuan / share was the elimination price. A total of 415 institutional investors participated in the inquiry, of which 399 companies uniformly quoted the price of 2.49 yuan / share, with a concentration of 96%. This suspected "collusion" quotation situation also caused a high degree of regulatory concern. At the end of 2020, the exchange suggests that the buyer's institution should prevent the disclosure of quotation information before the end of inquiry, and not inquire about the quotation information of other institutions.

At present, in order to prevent the "three highs" of new share pricing under the registration system, the current inquiry system of new shares on the science and technology innovation board and the growth enterprise market has adopted the rules of mandatory elimination of the 10% maximum quotation. In the view of the market, this regulation also gives the inquiry agency "price reduction" power.

? ? “ Personally, I don't agree with the saying of "collusion in quotation" or "price reduction by partnership". Inquiry agencies are also trying to ensure that they win the bid. " There are buyers of institutional investors said.

"At the beginning, we all had no experience. We followed the bidding report and offered a variety of quotations. Later, I played a lot, and slowly found out the pricing center that can ensure the winning of the bid. Because we want to eliminate the highest quotation of 10%, the whole quotation range starts to move down, rather lower than higher. " Said the buyer.

Another public fund source in Beijing said that in this process, on the one hand, the "institution price reduction" is for the sake of its own interests. The lower the price, the more secure the income will be in the subsequent exit; On the other hand, it's "open up the door when you see it.". In order to reduce the impact of price reduction as much as possible, some sponsor institutions will increase the quotation range within a certain range, which on the contrary makes the institutions more motivated to carry out "price reduction"“ At the end of the day, the price is always lower than the base price Said the public offering fund.

According to the incomplete statistics of 21st century economic report reporters, among the 114 listed companies with comparable pricing forecasts in 2021, 92 listed companies issued lower than the lower limit of the price range of the investment report given by the sponsor, accounting for 90% of the total. In the interview, Dong Secretary of a company to be listed said that issuing below the predicted price and price reduction by institutions have become the normal market.

Inquiry issuance was originally a fair trade. Why did the balance begin to tilt towards the institution?

Some people said that the first thing is that under the current inquiry system, the organization is "one dominant". At present, small and medium-sized investors do not participate in the quotation, IPO enterprises lack the right to speak in pricing, and the pricing power is completely in the hands of inquiry institutions. Inquiry agencies have a strong incentive to keep prices down as much as possible without affecting the listing of enterprises.

On the other hand, under the registration system, the scarcity of listed companies is not the more fundamental motivation.

A person in charge of the investment banking business of a small and medium-sized securities firm said that in recent years, the Matthew effect of A-share is outstanding, and the overall performance of small cap stocks in the secondary market is far inferior to that of the industry leaders. In addition, since this year, the overall capital increment of A-share is not as good as before, and the number of listed companies has been increasing. Among them, there are few real industry leaders, and many new shares are not highly investable, which makes the buyer's organization further strengthen the motivation to lower the price and ensure the investment income.

Unacknowledged high expectations

? ? ? In the view of some intermediaries, although price reduction has become a prescribed action, the high expectations of some issuers are obviously not in line with the reality, which is also the main reason for the "dissatisfaction" of some projects.

According to the statistics of Ifind of tonghuashun, among the 72 listed companies whose actual raised funds were lower than expected in 2021, 21 listed companies listed at a price higher than 23 times the IPO P / E ratio, and 15 companies were higher than the IPO P / E ratio of 20 times. This means that the actual pricing of these companies is still not low, even though the fund-raising is not as expected.

? ? ? Take Yunzhong Technology (688260), which actually raised less than expected, as an example. The company plans to raise 985 million yuan, but actually only raises 289 million yuan. After simple calculation, it can be found that the initial IPO price of Yunzhong technology is around 32.83 yuan / share, and the corresponding post IPO P / E ratio is more than 70 times, which is significantly higher than the static P / E ratio of 50 times of the company's industry.

For such a high issuance expectation, the institutions choose to "vote with feet" uniformly. The company's offline inquiry allocation range is 9.63 yuan-9.69 yuan. Among the 495 institutional investors participating in the offline inquiry of the company, 445 of them gave quotations concentrated in the scope of "seven cents". Finally, the IPO price of the company is 9.63 yuan / share, corresponding to 22.28 times P / E ratio.

? ? ? Why is there such a big difference between the two sides“ Before that, the best quality science and technology innovation companies have achieved A-share listing, and the quality of follow-up projects has declined, which may also lead to the buyer's organization's disagreement with the price given by the issuer. " Have Beijing area senior investment bank personage to guess.

However, from a fundamental point of view, Yunzhong's performance is not excellent. In 2020, the net profit is only 48.02 million yuan, which is also 2.96% lower than that in the same period in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, Yunzhong technology achieved a revenue of 135 million yuan, while its net profit fell again, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.53% to 8.6826 million yuan.

? ? It is worth mentioning that Yunzhong technology's stock price did reach a high of 32 yuan / share on the first day of listing, but then it started a one month decline period, with the lowest falling to 16.48 yuan / share. As of May 24, the company's share price was 22.12 yuan / share. This means that the company still enjoys the valuation premium brought by listing.

Rational view on the survival of the fittest under the registration system

Although many companies have not raised enough funds, many enterprises have realized over raising.

Zhonghong medical (300981. SZ), which was listed on the gem on April 27, originally planned to raise 708 million yuan, but actually raised 2.025 billion yuan, exceeding 186%.

In this regard, some investment banks believe that the issue of new shares, whether under raised or over raised, is actually a normal phenomenon, and the successful issuance itself is not an inevitable event. In a rational market, it is inevitable that some projects will be issued successfully and some projects will fail. At present, the IPO market has begun to appear obvious differentiation, and the over financing and insufficient fund-raising of new shares coexist, and the new issuance frequently occurs, and the return rate of new shares is also declining. Under the multi-party game, "dissatisfaction" is expected to appear in batches.

"In the future, when one or two failed companies appear, investment banks will take the initiative to shield some small-scale and poor investment enterprises from listing, which is not necessarily a bad thing for the market." The investment bank said.

? ? ? In terms of mechanism optimization, some industry insiders suggest that we can improve the inquiry mechanism by introducing third-party institutions to participate in the quotation and modifying the corresponding inquiry terms.

The relevant person in charge of the investment banking business of small and medium-sized securities companies has said frankly that it has been nearly two years since the registration system was fully implemented. However, the sponsor of securities companies still lacks scientific and systematic means when making investment report for new shares, "most of them are still referring to the average p / E ratio of listed companies of the same type.".

? ? “ It is suggested that third-party institutions should be cultivated to issue new share investment reports, which can be used to support each other with the sponsor. In addition, combined with the recent performance of small and medium-sized stocks, companies with only 10 million or 20 million new shares under the registration system can set prices directly. As for whether they will fail to issue shares or whether investors in the secondary market will buy or not, it will be left to the market to judge. " The person in charge said.

Prior to this, Wang Jiyue, a senior investment banker, suggested that "10% of the highest bidding amount in the total amount of subscription to be applied" in the rules should be revised to "remove all applications corresponding to prices higher than or lower than 50% of the median of all quotations or weighted average", Or "eliminate all the subscription applications corresponding to the quotations other than the standard deviation of the lower value of the median of all quotations and the weighted average", so as to guide the market from crossing out to eliminating extreme quotations.

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