Market Observation: What Is The Impact Of The Epidemic On Cotton Planting In India?

According to the Federation of seed industries of India, although the second wave of new crown outbreak in India has affected production, transportation and sales to some extent, there has been no report of a decline in crop seed sales so far. As of late May, autumn crop seeds had reached most destinations and cotton seed sales in Punjab and Haryana had ended.

In short, the impact of the outbreak in mid March on India's cotton planting in 2021 can be ignored, because not only cotton seeds but also other seed sales progress are normal; Moreover, with the turning point of the domestic epidemic situation in India, India has been unsealed on a large scale since the early morning of April 7, and most epidemic prevention restrictions have been relaxed in some states. Therefore, not only the cotton textile and clothing industries have resumed their work and production, but also the restrictions on farmers' mobility have been lifted, which will help speed up the growth of new cotton in 2021.

According to the feedback from several private cotton enterprises in Gujarat and Maharashtra, the impact of the epidemic on India's cotton planting in 2021 is inevitable, but it is not too prominent. It is not as serious as some institutions and media claim, nor is it the judgment of government departments that "steals the bell". For the reasons why cotton seed sales have not been affected, Indian cotton enterprises summed up the following three points:

First, in recent years, the supply of genetically modified cotton seeds is relatively tight or even in short supply, so most farmers book in advance with agricultural materials dealers and cotton seed companies;

Second, the Indian government issued an order to increase the price of genetically modified cotton seeds by 5% in the fiscal year beginning in March (the actual price increase of agricultural material suppliers was significantly higher than 5%). Due to the fear that the price increase of agricultural material suppliers in the sowing period would be "stuck", most farmers would buy seeds ahead of schedule;

Third, due to the improvement of epidemic prevention and control level in some states in April / may, the flow of personnel and vehicles was restricted. Some farmers ordered seeds from agricultural material suppliers and cotton seed companies through telephone and e-mail, but the actual delivery and sowing of seeds were highly variable.

Why is the impact of the new crown epidemic in March may on cotton planting in India not so prominent?

First, the cotton growing area in India has a long planting period and a long span. In northern Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, sowing can be started in early April, while the planting period in central and Southern cotton areas is from May to July. Therefore, from the perspective of time, sowing in the central cotton region has been delayed, but the impact is controllable;

Secondly, the cotton planting in northern India was not only well irrigated, but also cultivated in a neat and mechanized way;

Third, India's blockade is mainly concentrated in large and medium-sized cities and disaster areas, while it is difficult to prevent and control the blockade in rural areas due to the needs of life and production, material circulation, marriage, funeral and marriage, etc; A certain number of migrant workers returned to the countryside in March / April, so cotton planting was affected by labor shortage, but the constraints on cotton planting progress were not prominent.

It should be noted that although the impact of the epidemic on cotton planting in India is limited from March to may, the price of corn and soybean and other agricultural products will rise sharply in 2020 / 2021, and the supply of genetically modified cotton seeds will be insufficient, which will lead to a year-on-year decline of cotton planting area in India in 2021. According to a cotton enterprise in Gujarat, since most of the crops in the central cotton region rely on natural precipitation, when the southwest monsoon will arrive in June, how strong and how long it will last will have a great impact on cotton planting in 2021.