Cotton Market: National "Guarantee Supply And Stable Price" Escorts The Relocation Of Cotton Price

This week, domestic cotton prices rose slightly, while international cotton prices rose slightly; Domestic cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the international cotton yarn price continued to rise; Polyester staple fiber prices stop falling and rise.

1、 Domestic cotton prices rose slightly

This week, the domestic cotton market stable operation, Xinjiang lint spot trading volume increased, domestic cotton prices experienced a period of decline after a technical rebound. From May 30 to June 4, 2021, the average settlement price of main cotton futures contracts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 15631 yuan / ton, up 19 yuan / ton or 0.1% over the previous week; The average price of national cotton price B index, which represents the market price of standard grade lint in mainland China, was 15794 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton or 0.2% over the previous week.

2、 International cotton prices rose slightly

This week, supported by the US $6 trillion stimulus package, the international cotton price showed a significant rebound. From May 30, 2021 to June 4, 2021, the average settlement price of Cotton Futures (ice) main contract of Intercontinental Exchange was 84.05 cents / pound, up 1.51 cents / pound or 1.8% compared with the previous week; The average price of international cotton index (m), representing the average CIF price of China's main ports, was 93.42 cents / pound, up 2.22 cents / pound or 2.4% over the previous week. The import cost of RMB 15005 yuan / ton (calculated by 1% tariff, including port miscellaneous and freight) was 207 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous week, or 1.4%. The international cotton price was 789 yuan / ton lower than that of domestic cotton price, and the internal and external price difference was reduced by 182 yuan / ton compared with last week.

3、 Domestic cotton yarn prices rose slightly after falling slightly ? ? International cotton yarn prices continue to rise slightly

This week, the domestic pure cotton yarn market has a stronger wait-and-see mood. Large textile mills' orders are relatively stable, and the prices of finished products are slightly higher. Small and medium-sized factories mainly sell short-term orders to make profits. With the rebound of cotton prices, the overall price of pure cotton yarn shows a slight drop and a sign of price increase again; After India, the epidemic situation in Vietnam was again fermented, and textile production and shipping in Southeast Asia were further restricted, and the price of supporting outer yarn was continuously raised; At present, the price of conventional yarn is 217 yuan / ton higher than that of domestic yarn. The downstream grey fabric market is stable as a whole, and the conventional grey fabric is dominated by small and medium orders. The price competition of some varieties is fierce, and it is difficult to receive orders. The overall profit margin is general.

4、 Future prospects

The employment situation in the United States has improved, the tone of the Federal Reserve's loose policy remains difficult to change in the short term, the epidemic situation has intensified, and the performance of industrial chains in various countries has been differentiated, and the international cotton price has continued to adjust. Private jobs in the United States increased by 978000 in May, the largest increase in 11 months, indicating that the situation of the labor market is improving, and the dollar index is rising rapidly. However, the Fed has not sent a signal to take tightening action, and market doubts and concerns are still rising. In terms of the international cotton market, the US cotton planting progress accelerated. As of May 30, the US cotton planting progress was 64%, which was the same as that of the same period last year.

The southwest monsoon in India is coming this week. Judging from the fact that the cotton seed sales in India have not decreased, the epidemic situation has no impact on the epidemic sowing; At present, the opening rate of India's clothing export distribution centers in New Delhi has dropped to 40-50%, and about 20% of orders are delayed or transferred to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and other countries; After India, the spread of the epidemic in Vietnam led to serious disruption of the textile industry supply chain. In the week of May 22, the retail sales of Red Book rose slightly to 13.6% year-on-year. In May, the consumer confidence index of the euro area narrowed to - 5.1, with the previous value of - 8.1.

To sum up, the global epidemic situation is changeable, the activity of cotton industry chain in various countries is still highly differentiated, the United States continues to ignore inflation, continues to increase liquidity supply, the international cotton market continues to adjust at a high level, and there is a risk of continued turbulence.

The economy shows strong production and weak demand, and the cotton price lacks the power to rise sharply. The impact of the rise in raw material prices in May was reflected. The performance of the production side was stronger than that of the demand side, and the performance of enterprises of different sizes was different. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the PMI production index in May was 52.7%, higher than 0.5% of the previous month, the new order index was 51.3%, lower than 0.7% of the previous month, and the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 51.8% and 51.1%, respectively, higher than 0.1% and 0.8% of the previous month, The PMI of small enterprises was 48.8%, lower than 2.0 percentage points of the previous month, falling to the contraction range.

In terms of domestic cotton market, after the cotton planting in southern Xinjiang, the growth of cotton seedlings was about one week later than that in previous years. With the recent temperature rise, some cotton buds have appeared, and the late weather change is very important for the new cotton yield; The spot market supply is still abundant, and the import cotton inventory continues to increase. The market estimates that the domestic import cotton inventory has accumulated to more than 750000 tons. This week, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang area continued to rise to 92000 tons, up 2.2% compared with last week.

Cotton enterprises may increase the willingness to reduce inventory. At present, the orders received and arranged by the textile mills above the designated size are basically normal, and the spinning profits are still high. Meanwhile, with the aggravation of the epidemic situation in Vietnam, the return of orders to China is expected to increase. In the near future, the terminal purchase of fabrics, fabrics and clothing in the downstream has slowed down. The epidemic situation has led to the suspension of operation of Guangzhou clothing wholesale market, which has affected the market activity. In the short term, the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth in coastal areas may increase.

To sum up, the domestic cotton supply is relatively abundant, and the downstream of the industrial chain is "cold and warm uneven", but the market sentiment is still strong. In view of the state's repeatedly proposed to do a good job in maintaining the supply and price of bulk commodities, and there are sufficient macro-control policy tools to solve the prominent problems in the economic operation such as the rise of bulk commodity prices, the realistic driving force of the sharp rise in domestic cotton prices has been weakened.