Automobile "Core Shortage" Expected To Ease In The Second Half Of The Year: How To Solve The Problem Of Long-Term Supply Security?

Chip shortage, the impact on the automotive industry is still continuing. In auto forum such as auto home and car understanding, for many popular models, "new car delivery delay caused by shortage of supply" has become a hot topic for consumers. The main engine factory is also trying to adjust the inventory, stay in the supplier and other ways to deal with.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, all industries in the world are facing the problem of semiconductor supply shortage, especially the automobile industry. This "core shortage" of automobile industry is generally believed to be due to the mismatch between automobile industry demand and semiconductor industry cycle. At the beginning of 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the automobile industry had low market expectations, and actively reduced semiconductor orders, which made part of the production capacity of the semiconductor industry transferred to consumer electronics. As a result, when the global market recovered at the end of the year, it was difficult for the semiconductor industry to complete the capacity switching and restore the supply of products. In addition, the spread of global epidemic, fire, earthquake and other factors further restrict the production capacity of the semiconductor industry.

At the 11th China automobile forum held from June 17 to 19, "core shortage" has also become the focus of discussion in the industry. However, it is worth noting that the discussion on the shortage of automotive chips is no longer limited to how to solve this wave of crisis, but more attention is paid to the long-term security and stability of the automotive semiconductor supply chain, and how to launch a more appropriate Chinese solution with the increase of chip supply brought about by the development of intelligent connected vehicles.

"The shortage of automotive semiconductor supply is not only a global common problem, but also reflects the deep-seated problem that the supply and demand of China's automobile industry and semiconductor industry do not match. This "core shortage" of automobiles also makes the industry fully aware of the importance of safety and stability of automotive semiconductor supply chain. " On June 19, Dong Xiaoping, deputy director of the electronic information department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the China Automotive forum.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, all industries in the world are facing the problem of semiconductor supply shortage, especially the automobile industry - Visual China

The higher the degree of intelligence, the greater the impact

On June 17, the global automotive market outlook report 2021 released by the consulting and Research Institute ireport showed that the problem of core shortage continued to affect the automotive industry. It is predicted that the semiconductor shortage will reduce the global automobile net output by 3.9 million units and the loss will reach 110 billion US dollars. It is expected that the core shortage problem will be alleviated in the fourth quarter of this year.

China Automobile Industry Association's forecast is relatively optimistic, that chip supply for the impact of China's car market is expected to make up in the second half of the year.

"The shortage of automobile chips will reach the peak in the second quarter. It is optimistic that the short supply of automobile chips will begin to ease in the second half of the year. The impact of the whole year is expected to be smoothed out. In mid-2022, the supply of automobile chips is expected to return to normal." Ye Shengji, chief engineer and Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, said.

However, from the actual situation, in recent months, dealers' inventory has continued to be low. In order to ensure operating profits, dealers' preferential activities and manufacturer's promotion policies have been revised back, which may have a certain impact on automobile sales.

"In the current environment, there should be no factory that can not be affected by (chip problems), but the degree has something to do with the intelligence (level) of cars. The more intelligent the chip is, the more likely the chip will be affected. We are also trying to find a way. " On June 19, Lin Jie, general manager of Lingke Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter.

At the same time, the price of car chips is also rising.

"Chips are not only in short supply now. The shortage has led to people desperately searching for goods. At the same time, the price of chips is also rising. The original chip with a price of more than 20 yuan has risen to more than 1000 yuan, which will exert pressure on automobile enterprises and have a certain impact on the automobile market." On June 18, Shi Jianhua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said in an interview with the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

Although the industry generally believes that this round of "core shortage" will be alleviated before the end of the year, there are also views that the impact will continue.

"The western world, led by the United States, continues to crack down on our high-tech field, which has disrupted the order of the supply chain for decades. In addition, our digital economy is growing very fast. Therefore, we should be prepared for the current situation of" core shortage "and the possible duration." Feng Yanchun, chairman of independent innovation and Security Technology Committee of China electronics chamber of Commerce, said.

According to yuan Chengyin, general manager of national new energy vehicle technology innovation center and Secretary General of China Automotive chip industry innovation strategic alliance, if the industry maintains global supply, the problem of chip shortage can be solved within a year. However, considering the future regional competition, international confrontation and other factors, it may become a long-term problem.

The Ministry of industry and information technology will guide enterprises to increase the capacity of automotive semiconductors

Ye Shengji said that in 2019, the global semiconductor market size will be 412.3 billion US dollars, of which the global automotive semiconductor market is 41 billion US dollars, accounting for about 10% of the semiconductor market size. It is estimated that the automotive semiconductor market size is expected to reach 65.1 billion US dollars in 2022, accounting for 12% of the total, and it will become the fastest growing part of the semiconductors segment.

However, it should be pointed out that China's auto chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 5%. On the whole, the domestic automobile industry relies on large international component groups, especially the core component technology, electrical architecture and supply system in the semiconductor field. For the long-term security of the industrial chain, there is a huge potential risk.

Dong Xiaoping, deputy director of the electronic information department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that on the whole, domestic semiconductor enterprises have problems such as poor understanding of the automobile market demand, insufficient technology accumulation, insufficient product development experience, poor application and promotion, and poor supply capacity.

It is difficult for local chip enterprises to produce low-cost, large-scale, high stability and consistency chips, which leads to the widening gap between China's chip industry and foreign leading enterprises.

It is worth noting that it takes a long time for automotive chips to enter the supply chain system.

"The process of matching with automotive electronics, reliability certification, and doing car experiments will increase from 2-3 years of traditional chip development to 5-6 years of vehicle application in the automotive industry. Therefore, this industry is a strong binding and long industrial chain industry. In this process, close cooperation, mutual trust and mutual recognition between upstream and downstream must be required. " Yuan Chengyin said.

The consensus in the industry is that if we want to solve the supply of automobile chips, it involves the close cooperation between the automobile industry and the electronic information industry.

"At present, the development focus of the domestic semiconductor industry is not in the automotive sector. The automobile chip economy is not very good, the cost is still high, the cycle is still long, and the entry conditions are high. Automobile enterprises in the automobile industry have high requirements for parts supply. If there is any problem, they will ask for compensation or reduce the purchase price. Today's situation, the automotive industry also needs to reflect. " Ye Shengji said.

Ye Shengji believes that in order to vigorously promote the innovation and R & D of chip enterprises and automobile enterprises, host plants also need to actively create a good industrial chain ecology. Vehicle manufacturers and electronic system suppliers should be responsible for the cultivation of the upstream. Automobile, chip and component design companies, OEM factories, equipment manufacturers and raw material factories should be cultivated step by step to form a good ecological environment for the industrial chain and promote the development of automotive semiconductor industry. At the same time, automobile enterprises also need to improve and strengthen the supply chain management of chip products.

He also suggested that relevant departments should incorporate automotive chips into major technological development projects to solve the problem that vehicle manufacturers dare not use them. He thinks that the chips are mainly faced with problems such as reliability and performance stability. Vehicle enterprises should recognize from a strategic point of view. Vehicles should dare to use independent chips, give opportunities for chip enterprises to cultivate, and form national chip enterprises.

It is understood that the Ministry of industry and information technology of the people's Republic of China is actively promoting the communication and docking between the two industries, guiding automobile enterprises to fully tap the stock resources, adjust and optimize the production plan, urge the semiconductor industry to increase the allocation of production capacity, strengthen cooperation with upstream and downstream enterprises, and improve the supply capacity.

"In the next step, the Ministry of industry and information technology will continue to guide enterprises to increase the technology of automotive semiconductors and promote the improvement of manufacturing capacity of automotive semiconductor production lines. To guide the construction of vehicle inspection and certification capability, strengthen the application and promotion of excellent automotive semiconductor solutions, and create an atmosphere in which vehicle and component enterprises are willing to use, dare to use and take the initiative to use. " Dong Xiaoping said.

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