Who Is "Stealing" The Limelight Of Goldwind Technology?

On June 22, China Huaneng, Yunnan Wenshan Tianmashan wind power plant and other five wind turbine procurement projects with a total scale of 1.39gw announced the pre winning information, Sany Heavy energy and Yuanjing energy won two bid sections respectively.

The domestic wind power giant Jinfeng technology naturally participated in the bidding of the above projects, along with its old competitors such as Mingyang intelligent, Sany Heavy energy and Yuanjing energy. But in the end, it failed to carve up the big cake.

As a big brother in the field of wind turbines in China, the first domestic market share in the past ten years has made Goldwind technology feel confident when interacting with investors on the interactive platform. The reality, however, is that the company's lead is shrinking.

In May, UBS Securities gave a rare "sell" rating on Goldwind's H shares and lowered its target price. It is worth mentioning that before the bearish report, UBS once held nearly 5% of Goldwind's H shares.

Behind the change of attitude of the organization, Goldwind technology is indeed facing many challenges.

"Houlang" orders will catch up with "big brother"

In retrospect, Goldwind technology traces its history back to "1985-1997" and regards it as an exploration period.

Even with the establishment of the company in 1998 as a reference, Jinfeng technology is nearly ten years earlier than the birth of Mingyang energy, prospect energy and Sany Heavy energy.

Regardless of the company's history or market size, Goldwind technology's role as the "big brother" in the domestic wind power field cannot be shaken, but this can not prevent the "back wave" from surging.

In April this year, WoodMac, a consultancy, released the 2020 global wind turbine enterprise market share ranking. Not surprisingly, Goldwind technology ranks second in the world and the first in China with a market share of 12.8%. Compared with the situation in 2019, the market share of Goldwind technology has slightly increased, driving the global ranking forward. What's expected is that the future energy industry has narrowed the gap, and its market share difference with Goldwind technology has decreased from 3% in 2019 to 2.8% in 2020.

In recent years, the ability of future energy to take orders in domestic wind power projects can not be underestimated. According to the incomplete statistics of wind power headlines in the industry, in the bidding of 233 wind power project developers from central enterprises in 2020, prospective energy won the first place with the bid winning scale of 5.61gw, accounting for 24.06% of the total. At the bottom of the list is Goldwind technology, with a cumulative bid winning scale of about 4.48gw, accounting for 19.24%.

The number of orders in hand is an important support for the future performance growth of wind power enterprises. Domestic wind power bidding has entered 2021, ushering in a dramatic change. Compared with previous years, this year's fan prices continue to fall, causing heated discussion in the industry. Under the intense price war, wind turbine manufacturers have won the bid this year. The traditional leading enterprises, such as Jinfeng technology, are suppressed by the "houlang" represented by Mingyang intelligent, Sany Heavy energy and prospective energy. According to the 21st century economic reporter's analysis, in the purchase of several large-scale wind turbines this year, Goldwind technology either failed or got a small share.

In April 2021, China Huaneng 2.88gw wind turbine procurement project came to an end. In this big cake, Sany Heavy energy and Yunda wind power have become the biggest winners, with both winning the bid exceeding 1GW. Although Jinfeng technology has won two decentralized wind power projects, the bid winning scale is 60MW, accounting for only 2.08%.

As a matter of fact, Goldwind technology has won many 100 MW projects this year. In the middle of June, the bid opening of the 270mw wind turbine procurement project of PowerChina was held, and Jinfeng technology and Beijing dongkuo Qiankun shared food. The company won the bid for Henan Taikang 100MW wind power project and Henan Xiayi Huineng 20MW distributed wind power project. The single unit scale of wind turbines in both projects was 3.0MW; In March this year, the procurement of wind turbine equipment and tower of the Three Gorges new energy Kangbao 100MW affordable online demonstration project was released, and Jinfeng technology won the bid.

However, in sharp contrast to golden wind technology's many missed major projects, Mingyang intelligent, prospective energy and Sany Heavy energy are in full swing this year. The continuous increase in the number of orders in hand, also let some "after wave" order size is about to catch up with "big brother.". Taking Mingyang intelligent as an example, as of the first quarter, the on hand orders of Mingyang intelligent were 15.77gw. Over the same period, the number of orders of Goldwind technology in hand was about 15.96gw.

There is also Sany Chongneng.

In mid June, SDIC announced the bid price of wind turbine for 200MW wind power plant in area B of the seventh wind farm of Jiuquan North Bridge in Gansu Province. Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. quoted a price of 2360 yuan / kW with tower drum, and the quotation of brush fan was new low.

Sany energy, which set off this round of wind turbine price war, wants to enter the first echelon of domestic wind turbine manufacturers.

In the above "2020 global wind turbine enterprise market share ranking", Sany Heavy Energy Co., Ltd. ranks 13th in the world and 9th in China with 3.7% market share. However, Sany is determined to increase its market share this year. The biggest driving force is Sany energy, which is impacting the IPO of the science and technology innovation board. It needs to obtain more orders to increase its performance imagination.

The company's prospectus shows that in recent years, Sany's revenue scale has increased with each passing day: in 2018, its revenue was only 1.035 billion yuan, while in the first three quarters of 2020, the company's revenue increased sharply to 5.036 billion yuan. But that is clearly not enough. Electric wind power, which is also listed on the science and technology innovation board, has a revenue scale of more than 20 billion yuan in 2020.

Through price competition, Sany energy wants to carve up the market. "The market share ranking of onshore wind power will be further improved in 2021," it said in its prospectus

What are the reasons for the low valuation

With revenue of 50 billion yuan and net profit of nearly 3 billion yuan, the market value of Goldwind technology, which is not bad, is back to two years ago.

Even, compared with Longji, a leading photovoltaic company, the revenue of Goldwind technology in 2020 will be higher.

This wind power leading enterprise's valuation in the capital market, the highlight point appeared in the fourth quarter of last year to the middle of the first quarter of this year. At that time, under the atmosphere of the whole A-share hot speculation in wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy sectors, the total market value of Goldwind technology once exceeded 70 billion yuan, with the highest dynamic P / E ratio of about 27 times. But this has obviously become a "ceiling" - over the same period, Longji shares have a price earnings ratio of 57 times and a total market value of more than 460 billion yuan.

Goldwind's valuation is cold, largely related to its industry.

The goal of "carbon peak, carbon neutral" has given birth to new opportunities for the development of domestic renewable energy, and wind power and photovoltaic have become the main force of domestic energy structure adjustment“ China's energy structure has entered a stage that must be adjusted, and wind power and photovoltaic power will jointly dominate. " A senior analyst in the new energy industry told the 21st century economic report that although the development of the new energy industry in the future must be that wind power and photovoltaic will complement each other, it is an indisputable fact that wind power and photovoltaic industry compete with each other secretly.

Compared with the "savage growth" of the photovoltaic industry, the wind power industry in the past "13th five year plan" period did not have a qualitative change. In the case of an annual increase of about 30GW, the wind power industry did not appear as fierce capacity expansion and fierce price competition as the photovoltaic industry. At the same time, compared with the current situation that domestic photovoltaic industry technology innovation has led the world, domestic wind power enterprises are still facing strong competition from foreign enterprises, which is enough to affect the industry imagination space of two different sectors.

In the secondary market, the capital is obviously more enthusiastic about photovoltaic plate. After "holding out" three companies with a market value of 100 billion, including Longji shares, Tongwei shares and sunshine power supply, Zhonghuan shares has recently joined the club with a market value of 100 billion yuan. By the end of June 24, the company's total market value was about 109.2 billion yuan.

Under the restriction of industry imagination space, Goldwind technology, as the leader, once again "goes through" in the secondary market with a lower P / E ratio.

At the same time, in this year's wind turbine price war, Goldwind technology did not offer a low-cost strategy, trying to "protect oneself".

In fact, compared with its peers in gross profit margin in the past few years, the advantages of Goldwind technology are not obvious. In 2020, the gross profit margin of the company's wind turbine sales is 14.58%. Over the same period, the gross profit margin of Mingyang intelligent was 2 percentage points higher.

This is due to the different technical routes of the products, but Goldwind is also determined to maintain the gross profit margin. According to the company's 2021 business target guidance, the gross profit rate of wind turbines is expected to be 18% this year.

Financial data show that in the first quarter of this year, the overall gross profit rate of Goldwind technology returned to 28.39%. But the real test is the next three quarters. "The average price and profit of the company's wind turbines peaked in the first quarter of this year," UBS Securities said

The gross profit rate forecast given by S & P is relatively cautious. In the credit rating released in April, S & P lowered Goldwind's long-term issuer credit rating from "BBB -" to "BB +", "thanks to efficiency improvement, streamlined production and further cost reduction measures, Goldwind's wind turbine sales gross margin will return to 16.5% - 17.5%

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