Interpretation: CPI And PPI Rose Slightly In June 2021

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (Industrial producer price index) data for June 2021. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

First, CPI month on month decline expanded, year-on-year growth fell back

In June, China's economy maintained a stable recovery, the overall supply of the consumer market was sufficient, and the consumer price was running smoothly.

On a month on month basis, CPI fell by 0.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the food price decreased by 2.2%, and the decline rate expanded by 0.5%, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.40%. In food, the pork price continued to drop by 13.6% due to the continuous recovery of pig production capacity, the concentrated marketing of barren pigs and the seasonal weakness of consumer demand; The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits dropped by 2.3% and 4.5% respectively; Affected by factors such as continued tight supply, freshwater fish prices continued to rise by 2.4%. Non food prices were flat from a 0.2% rise last month. Among non food products, the price of gasoline and diesel increased by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively due to the rise of international crude oil price; During the off-season of travel, combined with the impact of epidemic situation in local areas, the prices of air tickets, hotel accommodation, tourism and transport rental fees decreased by 1.3% - 9.2%.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 1.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the food price increased from 0.3% in the previous month to a decrease of 1.7%, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.31%, mainly driven by the expansion of pork price decline. In food, the price of pork decreased by 36.5%, an increase of 12.7 percentage points over the previous month; The price of freshwater fish increased by 33.5%, and the increase fell by 0.2%; The prices of eggs and edible vegetable oil rose by 21.7% and 9.5% respectively, with both increases expanding. Non food prices rose 1.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 1.38%. Among non food items, the price of air ticket increased by 27.0%, and the increase fell by 5.3%; The prices of gasoline, diesel and LPG rose by 24.3%, 26.8% and 11.1% respectively; The prices of industrial consumer goods such as air conditioners, television sets, desktop computers and housing decoration materials all rose by 1.8% - 3.2%.

It is estimated that among the 1.1% year-on-year increase in June, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 0.8 percentage points, 0.1 percentage points larger than that of the previous month; The impact of the new price increase was about 0.3 percentage points, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year, the same increase as last month.

Second, PPI rose both month on month and year-on-year

In June, the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and price of domestic bulk commodities initially appeared, the relationship between supply and demand in the market tended to improve, and the price rise of industrial products slowed down.

On a month on month basis, PPI rose 0.3%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.5%, and the increase fell by 1.6%; The price of means of living increased from 0.1% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.2%. Affected by the policy of ensuring the supply and price of raw materials, the excessive rising trend of steel and non-ferrous metal industry prices has been initially curbed, and the prices have changed from up to down. Among them, the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have decreased by 0.7%, and the prices of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have decreased by 0.1%. The high temperature weather led to a strong demand for steam coal, which led to a 5.2% rise in the price of coal mining and washing industry. However, under the effect of measures to increase production and supply, the increase fell by 5.4%. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has led to the increase of domestic oil related industries. The price of oil exploitation increased by 3.0%, and the manufacturing price of refined petroleum products increased by 2.5%, with the increase of 0.8% and 0.1% respectively. In addition, the prices of agricultural materials rose rapidly, including fertilizer manufacturing prices rising by 4.8% and pesticide manufacturing prices by 1.2%.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 11.8%, and the increase fell by 0.2%; The price of means of living rose by 0.3% and fell by 0.2%. Among the major industries, the oil and gas exploitation industry saw a decline in price increase, with an increase of 53.6% and a decrease of 45.5%; Ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 34.4% and fell by 3.7%; Nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 27.8% and fell by 2.6%; Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, up 20.3%, down 0.6%. Coal mining and washing industry increased by 37.4% and 7.7% respectively; Oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 36.1% and expanded by 1.8 percentage points.

It is estimated that among the 8.8% year-on-year increase in June, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 2.4 percentage points, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; The impact of the new price increase was about 6.4 percentage points, with an increase of 0.4 percentage points.