Market Analysis: The First Week Of Throwing Reserve, Cotton Prices Rose Positively

? ? ? On the domestic side, as of July 9, the spot price of cotton rose, the main basis of Zheng cotton expanded to 196 yuan / ton, and the difference between domestic and foreign spot price of cotton expanded to 1542 yuan / ton; The price of Zheng cotton futures rose sharply in the early stage, with the highest quotation of 16670 yuan / ton, which reached a new high since March. The price of main 2109 contract rose by 0.43% to close at 16355 yuan / ton; Zhengmian warehouse receipt + effective forecast totaled 17128 sheets (about 685100 tons), which continued to flow out. Supply side: last week was the first week of storage, and the planned 477.824 million tons of reserved cotton were sold, with an average price of 16398 yuan / ton, which was about 17743 yuan / ton at 3128b. The turnover of textile enterprises accounted for 60% of the total turnover, indicating that the enterprises had a high enthusiasm for stock preparation, which provided positive support for market sentiment and price. Demand side: according to the recent market survey of China Cotton Association, the downstream enterprises of cotton textile cluster are running smoothly, and the spinning market is better than the weaving Market.

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? Internationally, as of July 9, the price of American cotton fluctuated. The average price of standard grade spot in the seven major American markets was 83.88 cents / pound, up 0.58% from the previous week; The settlement price of the main cotton futures contract in December was 87.71 cents / pound, up 0.85% compared with the previous week, and the main price difference between domestic and foreign cotton futures expanded to 2552 yuan / ton. Supply side: at present, the seedling situation of American cotton is basically stable. As of July 4, the budding progress of American cotton was 42%, increased by 10% compared with the previous week, the boll setting progress was 11%, increased by 4% compared with the previous week, and 52% of the cotton with good production status accounted for 52%, which was the same as that of the previous week. Demand side: as of July 1, the signing and shipping performance of US cotton export was relatively strong, with 13100 tons of US cotton signed weekly (28.43% higher than that of the previous week), 3.8429 million tons of US cotton were signed in 20 / 21, accounting for 107.61% of the annual export forecast value of 3.571 million tons (USDA forecast value in June), and the total shipment volume of American cotton in 20 / 21 years was 3.3234 million tons, and the shipment completion rate was 86.48%.

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? Generally speaking, under the current situation of good turnover and stable downstream, the short-term domestic cotton price is expected to remain stable; In addition, affected by the tropical storm, there is a risk of flooding in the southeast cotton producing areas of the United States. Pay attention to the market impact brought by weather changes. Follow up on USDA's July supply and demand report, new cotton growth, epidemic development, import quota issuance, etc.