Good News Of Secondary High-End Liquor: Both Shede And Fenjiu Exceeded Expectations, And High-End Nationalization Was The Growth Method

The secondary high-end liquor is making a new comeback.

After July 12, Shanxi Fenjiu (600809. SH) and shede liquor (600702. SH) successively released semi annual performance forecasts with profit growth of more than 100%.

Two announcements brought up the plate market. Affected by the good news, on July 13, A-share liquor plate opened higher, shede liquor industry quickly pulled up the seal plate, and Jinhui liquor (603919. SH), Shanxi Fenjiu, jinzhongjiu (600199. SH) followed.

Wind data showed that as of the closing, A-share liquor index rose 2.86%; Shede rose 10.00% to 213.40 yuan / share; Shanxi Fenjiu rose 9.71% to 341.20 yuan / share.

Blue and white series is the main reason for the growth of Fen Liquor

According to the performance pre increase announcement, Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to increase its business income by 4.830 billion yuan to 5.520 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%; Net profit increased by 1.766 billion yuan to 2.087 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 110% - 130%.

Shanxi Fenjiu said that since the company acquired 51% equity of Shanxi Xinghua village Fenjiu Group Liquor Industry Development Zone Co., Ltd. in 2020, according to the accounting standards for business enterprises - consolidated financial statements, the company restated the operating data of the half year of 2020.

After restatement, Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue in the first half of 2021 is expected to increase by 4.833 billion yuan - 5.523 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%; Net profit increased by 1.792 billion yuan to 2.118 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 110% - 130%.

According to this calculation, Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve revenue of 4.4 billion yuan - 5.09 billion yuan in the second quarter of this year, with a year-on-year growth of 59% - 84%, and a net profit of 1.19-1.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 213% - 297%.

After the release of the pre increase announcement, many securities analysts said that Shanxi Fenjiu's performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations.

For example, China Merchants Securities pointed out that the second quarter revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu was in line with expectations, and its profits were much higher than market expectations; It is estimated that the net interest rate in the second quarter may reach 29.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4%.

Why is the performance of Shanxi Fenjiu so good?

In the pre increase announcement, Shanxi Fenjiu said that during the reporting period, the company promoted the implementation of "two major actions": first, Fenjiu's three-year reform action and benchmarking world-class management improvement action; The second is to implement the "two wheel drive" strategy, around the "1357 + 10" market layout, accelerate the expansion of the market outside the province, optimize the product structure of Fen Liquor, and promote the implementation of high-end product strategy.

"The medium and high-end blue and white series is the main driver of performance growth. In the first half of the year, Fenjiu also actively controlled the amount of low-end Bofen series. " A private fund manager told reporters.

Specifically, the blue and white series of blue and white 20, blue and white 30 and Renaissance version in the first half of the year have good performance.

Everbright Securities said that the blue and white 20 accounted for a relatively high proportion, and its revenue more than doubled year-on-year. The revenue scale of the blue and white 30 series is estimated to be more than 1 billion, and the market acceptance of the Renaissance version is good.

Among them, the products listed in October last year and completed the market introduction in the first half of this year are the core products of Fenjiu in the "14th five year plan" period. At present, the blue and white 30 Renaissance edition continues to implement the quota system, in order to stabilize the price of 1000 yuan.

The approval price and inventory data at the end of June this year showed that the group purchase price of the blue and white 30 Renaissance edition was 960-1100 yuan, and the approval price was flat month on month.

In addition to the high-end product structure, the market expansion outside the province is also an important reason for the high performance of Shanxi Fenjiu.

Shanxi Fenjiu said in the pre increase announcement that the number of controllable terminal outlets in the national market broke through 1 million in the first half of the year, and the revenue of the surrounding Shanxi market and the southern market increased significantly.

According to the agency's forecast, the growth rate of Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue in the first half of the year was about 20% in the provincial market, while the revenue in the market outside the province doubled year on year, accounting for 60% of the total revenue.

Henan, which has a leading market outside the province, has achieved the sales volume of blue and white 20 in the first half of the year, and the sales volume of blue and white 30 is close to that of the whole year of 2020.

Verification of growth logic of secondary high end

Compared with Shanxi Fenjiu, the performance growth rate of shede liquor industry in the first half of the year is more brilliant.

According to the announcement, shede is expected to achieve a net profit of 710 million yuan - 750 million yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 332.42% - 356.78%.

According to this calculation, the net profit of shede liquor industry in the second quarter of this year was 408 million yuan - 448 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 196.8% - 225.9%.

The profit forecast range of shede liquor industry exceeded the market expectation significantly. A public fund consumption researcher told 21st century economic report that they had expected the second quarter profit of shede to be about 330 million yuan to 350 million yuan.

At the same time, the net interest rate of shede liquor industry is also rising. Cinda securities forecasts that the net interest rate of shede wine industry has increased from 20% in the past to 30%, and it is expected that the net interest rate will continue to maintain about 30% in the second quarter.

As for the reasons for the sharp increase in performance, shede said that the company was affected by the epidemic in the same period of last year, and its operating performance base was low. In the first half of this year, due to the gradual control of the domestic epidemic situation, the consumption market of medium and high-end liquor has obviously recovered, and the company's liquor strategy has been gradually accepted by the market.

"Old wine" strategy is the development strategy proposed by shede in 2019. This strategy aims to make full use of 120000 tons of old wine, and make "shede" the first brand and the second high-end price leader of old wine category.

"As a large single product of the company, shede encountered the resistance of brand positioning in the development process. The quality is good, but the price is relatively cheap. The main reason is that the price has not gone up and the scale has not gone up. Willing to deal with the present, to find a solution to its problems and open up a new track, old wine is the first, the fundamental purpose is to improve the brand and price. " At the shareholders' meeting of shede liquor at the end of June, the company once explained the old liquor strategy in this way.

In the second quarter of this year, the approval rates of some brands of shede were improved, with the approval rates of taste shede and wisdom shede standing at 350 yuan and 480 yuan respectively, with the approval prices increasing by more than 50 yuan year-on-year.

In addition to the "old wine strategy" mentioned by the company, many organizations pointed out that "Tuopai" customized business and blank market investment promotion were the main reasons for the growth of the second quarter performance.

In terms of dealers, the feedback from channel research shows that in the first half of 2021, the company has developed more than 300 new distributors.

Taking into account Jiugui Liquor (000799. SZ), which predicted that the net profit of the first half of the year increased by 170.96% - 181.79% on July 8, as of July 12, there were three liquor companies in a share company disclosing the semi annual pre increase announcement.

The 21st century economic reporter noticed that Jiugui Liquor, shede liquor and Shanxi Fenjiu are all secondary high-end liquor enterprises.

Although the second quarter has always been the off-season of liquor industry, the channel research information shows that the secondary high-end liquor still has a considerable prosperity in the second quarter: the inventory of core single products of many enterprises is at a historical low level, and some secondary high-end important products are even out of stock in the core Market.

The high growth performance of the three liquor companies not only reflects the prosperity of secondary high-end liquor, but also verifies the Growth Logic of secondary high-end liquor. In conclusion, the common ground of their playing methods is to develop medium and high-end products and expand the national market.

Tianfeng Securities pointed out that under the background of consumption upgrading, famous and excellent liquor enterprises can stand firmly in the secondary high-end price band and enjoy the dividend of both quantity and price. The "strength" of secondary high-end liquor is expected to run through the whole year.

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