Nut Boom Fades, Leisure Food Performance Is Cold

Yanjin shop performance decline, three consecutive trading days limit, the stock price almost cut. On July 20, Yanjin shop (002847. SZ) issued an announcement and urgently put out the plan of increasing holdings.

According to the announcement, the company's actual controller, some directors and some senior managers plan to increase their holdings of the company's shares by no less than 50 million yuan based on their confidence in the company's future development prospects and their recognition of the company's value.

On July 15, the performance forecast of yanjinpuzi in the second half of 2021 shows that it is expected to make a net profit of 45 million yuan to 55 million yuan in the first half of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 57.68% to 65.38%. Yanjin shop said that the impact of the epidemic, market development and cultivation, rising raw material costs, equity incentives and other factors led to the decline in performance. The second quarter forecast has not been released yet.

The 21st century economic reporter called the general secretary office of Yanjin shop on July 20 to inquire about how to reduce the marketing cost and the relevant data of new product research. As of the time of publication, the company has not responded.

Coincidentally, the share price of liangpin shop in the same industry (603719. SH) opened low on July 19, and fell 9.86% in the session, approaching the limit. Wu Yifan, its former spokesman, recently got involved in a scandal. Liangpin shop posted a micro blog at more than 9:00 p.m. on July 18, saying: "the endorsement cooperation with Mr. Wu Yifan has expired in November 2020, and the relevant publicity cooperation has also been terminated." The former spokesperson event may have a certain impact on the stock price of listed companies, but in fact, the weakening of liangpinpu's share price does not start from this.

On the same day, Zhao Ronggang, a senior observer in the catering industry, said in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter: "the feedback from the market terminal is behind the sharp drop in stock prices. After all, leisure food is not just needed. The comprehensive performance price ratio of nut brand is too low, so it is easy to consume several kinds of products at will. With more and more choices of snack scenes, it is more and more difficult for franchisees to make money, and the rate of shop closures has increased sharply. Brands can keep doing stimulating activities online, and the price is much cheaper than offline stores. "

However, it should be noted that at present, China's leisure food industry has gradually stepped from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage. With the improvement of residents' consumption level, continuous upgrading of consumption and the increase of leisure food consumption scenarios, the leisure food industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of 5% in the next five years. Therefore, for companies in the incremental market stage, channel and category competition is still the core of the company's products entering the market.

Group buying shock

The rise of community group buying has a great impact on the agricultural and sideline products mainly through supermarkets and farmers' markets.

According to the first quarter report of yanjinpuzi, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 43.41% year-on-year to 82032800 yuan. However, the company has recently announced that the semi annual results have plummeted. It is expected to realize a net profit of 45 million yuan to 55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.68% to 65.38%. It also means a net loss of more than 30 million yuan in the second quarter.

As for the main reason for the year-on-year decline in performance, Yanjin shop said that it underestimated the emergence of new retail channels such as community group buying: "during the first half of 2020, the sales demand of the supermarket channel is strong, the sales revenue base is high, and the sales expenses are relatively low; The company underestimated the impact of new retail channels such as community group buying on the traditional supermarket channels. In the first half of 2021, the company invested too much (with redundancy) in personnel promotion, promotion and promotion of the supermarket channel, but the sales revenue growth and channel performance of the supermarket channel did not meet the expectations. "

An Yaze, an analyst with China Securities construction investment, believes that after the epidemic has slowed down, residents' shopping habits have not fully recovered, and the impact of community group buying has exerted a certain impact on the growth of Yanjin shops. But anyazar believes: "it belongs to short-term fluctuation, which does not affect the long-term logic of the company. The first curve of leisure (salty) snacks in Yanjin shop increased steadily, while the second curve of leisure baked snacks increased significantly, which initially laid the foundation for expanding from region to country. In the next five years, we will expand our business in accordance with the medium and long-term strategic plan of "multi brand, multi product, Omni channel and whole industry chain", and the long-term growth logic is still clear. "

Profit under pressure

From the perspective of the whole industry, the performance of the food industry showed weak growth in the first half of this year.

In the first half of last year, the revenue growth rate of yanjinpuzi was 47.5%, ranking first in the comprehensive food industry. This is due to the fact that some commodities are driven by the epidemic situation and consumption growth, resulting in a high performance base. This is also one of the reasons for the decline in performance this year.

In recent years, although the performance of liangpin shop has increased, the gross profit rate has declined. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of liangpin store was 6.378 billion yuan, 7.715 billion yuan and 7.894 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.58%, 20.97% and 2.32%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 239 million yuan, 340 million yuan and 344 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 520.65%, 42.68% and 0.95%. From 2019 to 2020, the gross profit margin of its main business is 32.15% and 31.13% respectively.

In addition, the weak profit growth led to the withdrawal of capital, and the reduction of large shareholders had a certain impact on the quality stores.

On July 14, liangpin shop announced that Hillhead capital reduced its holdings again. Zhuhai Hillard, Hong Kong hillock and Ningbo hillock have reduced their holdings of 4.8402 million shares, more than 1% of the total equity of the company, and the reduced market value exceeds 200 million yuan. After the equity change, the shares of Zhuhai hillock, Hong Kong hillock and Ningbo hillock decreased from 10.33% to 9.13%.

In the first half of this year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of laiyifen and three squirrels in the nut market increased by 774% and 81% respectively in the first half of this year. This was partly due to the serious impact of the epidemic on the income of offline stores last year, resulting in a sharp decline in net profit and a low performance base.

On the other hand, the rise of cost is also one of the reasons for the decrease of gross profit rate. Since March 2021, the prices of some raw materials, such as soybean oil, palm oil, milk powder, soybeans, quail eggs, ginger and so on, have increased greatly, which has increased the procurement cost of raw materials and led to the rise of production costs.

Zhao Ronggang pointed out: "the rising cost of raw materials has gradually become a normal in the industry, but some rising costs can be effectively transferred by tightening promotion expenses and other means. Generally speaking, it still has a certain impact on the level of profitability. Therefore, the future nut market needs to be iterated, and it needs to combine product innovation and scene innovation. "

Competition for channel categories

It is worth noting that there is room for growth in the packaging leisure food industry market. According to Euromonitor data, the market size of China's packaged leisure food industry will reach 342.9 billion yuan in 2020. Xie Ningling, an analyst at Dongfang securities, believes that at present, China's leisure food industry is gradually moving from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage. With the improvement of residents' consumption level, continuous upgrading of consumption and the increase of leisure food consumption scenarios, the leisure food industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of 5% in the next five years.

For companies in the incremental market, channel and category competition is the core to enter the market. In addition to the impact of the continuous epidemic situation and rising prices of raw materials, the high sales cost of Yanjin shops is also an important reason for reducing the company's profit margin.

According to the public information, Yanjin shops are mainly direct business super channel and dealer channel, while e-commerce channel is characterized by "late start and small proportion". Since 2014, Yanjin shop began to sell with the help of e-commerce platforms such as tmall and Jingdong. From 2017 to 2020, the operating revenue of e-commerce channels was 49.4743 million yuan, 102 million yuan, 70.195 million yuan and 109 million yuan, accounting for 6.56%, 9.23%, 5.02% and 5.58% respectively. An Yaze team, an analyst of China Securities construction investment, pointed out: "in order to cope with the decline in the sales volume of the supermarket, the company has invested too much in relevant market expenses such as personnel promotion, promotion and promotion in the supermarket channel."

In addition, the company strengthened the research and development of new products, and the R & D expenses in the second quarter reached 14.63 million yuan, an increase of 7.32 million yuan year on year.

And the company is looking for a break. The team of Liu Zhangming, an analyst of Tianfeng securities, points out that since 2020, "Yanjin shop has focused on the development of quantitative packaging and e-commerce. The marketing business department" takes customers as the center ", formulates product structure according to consumer demand, arranges bulk and quantitative loading, gathers resources in the fourth world war area to the front line, develops the quantitative loading market, promotes the sinking of channels, and implements differentiated marketing, Continue to strengthen the promotion of offline channels. "

In terms of quality shops, the company is also promoting the layout of offline and online channels. Xie Ningling, an analyst at Dongfang securities, pointed out that on the one hand, the company promoted the franchise mode to form differentiation advantages; on the other hand, it grasped the development opportunities of new online channels while combining the refined operation of traditional e-commerce platforms. And Xie Ningling also said: "the competitive advantage of liangpin stores also comes from the coverage of its whole category."

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