After The Big Rise Or Ushered In Consolidation Cotton Market Shock

1、 Price quotation

According to business agency data, the price of 3128b lint was about 18079 yuan / ton on the 16th and 18510 yuan / ton on the 20th, up 431 yuan / ton or 2.38% compared with last Friday, and 8.09% higher than last month.

2、 Market analysis

Last week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices hit new highs. On August 20, the average price of 3128b cotton index in China was 18497 yuan / ton, which was 594 yuan / ton higher than last Friday. At present, the supply of high-quality cotton in the market is still relatively scarce, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to trade is not reduced. The resonance effect of the price rise of reserved cotton is strong, which supports the trend of cotton price in the spot market. On the one hand, the rising power of cotton market comes from the preheating of domestic gold, silver and ten. Downstream demand continues to warm up, orders increase, cotton consumption increases significantly, and commercial inventory gradually falls. The latest data showed that cotton inventory was 49.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. On the other hand, after the cotton listing in Xinjiang in 2020, there will be a large area of local grabbing phenomenon, seed cotton prices are also going up all the way. Last week, Zheng cotton's market rose first and then fell, with the settlement price of 18070 yuan / ton on the 16th and 17805 yuan / ton on the 20th, down 265 yuan / ton. At present, the macro environment is weak, the market confidence is insufficient, the commodity market is weak, and the Zheng cotton market is falling accordingly.

Internationally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the monthly supply and demand report in August, reducing the U.S. and global cotton production in 2021 / 2022, with an estimated decrease of 536000 bales to 17.26 million bales month on month. This led to a decrease of 200000 bales in US cotton exports and 300000 bales in year-end inventory estimates, respectively. The expected decline in global cotton production, increased consumption and decrease in end of term inventory have gradually increased domestic and foreign cotton prices. The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to reduce stimulus measures this year led to the dollar's rise to this year's high, and cotton in ice period fell sharply on the 19th. US dollar interest rate hike is getting closer and closer, and commodity callback is imperative.

3、 Downstream industry chain

As the cotton price rose to a high level, the market chill began to show, the downstream textile enterprises lack of new orders, the wait-and-see sentiment increased, and the resistance of price downward transmission increased. Polyester industry chain market is weak, prices have continued to fall since August, to a certain extent, shake the market's confidence in the continued rise of cotton market. At present, yarn enterprises start relatively stable, product inventory is still at a low level, and the market is still looking forward to the textile peak season and order return, so the short-term market volatility is stable.