International Observation: Price Rise Of Indian Cotton Is Resisted, Cotton Export Decreases Year On Year

According to the feedback from several international cotton merchants and cotton import enterprises, since the end of December, Indian domestic cotton S-6, J34, mcu5 and other spot and McX futures prices have risen sharply, especially the Gubang S-6 quotation. On December 20, CCI was listed for sale, and the benchmark price of 2020 / 21 cotton rose by 200 rupees / Kandi again compared with two weeks ago.

A cotton exporter in Bombay said that the strong rebound in Indian cotton prices in the past week or more was caused by the smooth receipt of orders by Indian textile and clothing enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2021 (some cotton mill orders are scheduled to be after June 2022), the continued strong demand for cotton, the possibility of the Indian government's short-term cancellation of the 10% tariff on imported cotton is unlikely, CCI cotton inventory has basically bottomed out, leading to the government's regulation and control of cotton prices The supply capacity of resources is greatly weak.

On the one hand, some textile brand enterprises and retailers in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea have clearly informed Indian enterprises that if the contract price is increased or the delivery is delayed, the orders will be transferred to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia and other neighboring countries; On the other hand, India's FOB, CNF and CIF prices continued to rise, causing strong resistance from buyers from China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and other countries, and the contracted export volume of cotton showed a rapid downward trend. According to statistics, Indian cotton exports in October and November 2021 are only 700000 bales, a decrease of more than 40% compared with the same period last year.

According to the survey, affected by the rise of domestic cotton S-6 in India and the main contract price of cotton in ice period exceeding 110 cents / pound, China's main ports bonded from December 28 to 29 quoted 117.8-118.8 cents / pound for Indian cotton m1-5 / 32 in 2020 / 21 (basis difference 7.5-8 cents / pound, Qingdao port's lower "buy it now price" 114-116 US cents / pound), which was increased by 2.5-3 cents / pound compared with the middle of December; The "buy it now" price of Indian cotton m1-5 / 32 rose to 21100-21300 yuan / ton (including CCI shipping resources), and the price difference between Indian cotton m1-5 / 32 and American cotton 31-3 / 31-436 / 37 narrowed to about 2000 yuan / ton.

Some traders reflected that although the number of Brazilian cotton and American cotton bonded at ports was small since mid December, cotton mills and middlemen holding 1% tariff cotton import quota were still not "cold" with Indian cotton, and the transaction continued to be cold.