National Bureau Of Statistics: Purchasing Managers Index Fell Back To The Contraction Range In March
On March 31, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.
Recently, there have been a lot of aggregation public health events in many places in China, coupled with the significant increase of international geopolitical instability factors, the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have been affected to a certain extent. In March, the purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.5%, 48.4% and 48.8%, respectively, which were lower than 0.7%, 3.2% and 2.4% of the previous month. The three indexes all dropped below the critical point, indicating that the overall prosperity level of China's economy has declined. At the same time, the survey enterprises reflect that with the effective control of local public health events, the restrained production and demand will gradually recover, and the market is expected to recover.
1、 Manufacturing PMI below critical point
In March, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.5%, and the production and operation activities of manufacturing industry generally slowed down.
(1) both sides of production and demand have declined simultaneously. Affected by this round of public health events, some enterprises in some areas temporarily reduced production and stopped production, and affected the normal production and operation of upstream and downstream related enterprises; At the same time, the recent international geopolitical conflicts have intensified, some enterprises' export orders have been reduced or cancelled, and the manufacturing activities and market demand have weakened. The production index and new order index were 49.5% and 48.8% respectively, down 0.9 and 1.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, both falling to the contraction range. From the industry situation, the production index and new order index of textile, textile, clothing, general equipment and other industries dropped to the low level below 45.0%, and the industry supply and demand were weak; The two indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine beverage refined tea, electrical machinery equipment and other industries were higher than the critical point, and the production and demand kept expanding.
(2) the price index continued to rise. Affected by the recent sharp fluctuation of international commodity prices and other factors, the purchase price index of main raw materials and the ex factory price index were 66.1% and 56.7%, respectively, which were 6.1% and 2.6% higher than the previous month, and both rose to the highest points in nearly five months. In terms of the industry situation, the purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in upstream industries such as petroleum coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing are all over 70.0%, which brings great cost pressure to the middle and lower reaches of the industry.
(3) the high-tech manufacturing industry continued to expand. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry was 50.4%, which was lower than that of last month, but it continued to be in the expansion range. From the perspective of enterprise employment and market expectation, the employment index and business activity expectation index of high-tech manufacturing industry are 52.0% and 57.8%, respectively, which are 3.4 and 2.1 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry. It shows that high-tech manufacturing industry has strong development toughness, and enterprises continue to be optimistic about the future market development.
(4) the operation of large enterprises is relatively stable. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.3%, lower than 0.5% of the previous month, but 1.8% higher than that of the manufacturing industry as a whole. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.5%, lower than 2.9 percentage points of the previous month, falling to the contraction range. The PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, which continued to be below the critical point.
At the same time, some enterprises surveyed reported that due to the impact of this round of public health events, the number of personnel on duty was insufficient, the logistics transportation was not smooth, and the delivery period was prolonged. The supplier delivery time index of this month was 46.5%, lower than 1.7% of the previous month, which was the low point since March 2020. The stability of the manufacturing supply chain was affected to a certain extent.
2、 Non manufacturing business activity index fell significantly
In March, the non manufacturing business activity index was 48.4%, lower than 3.2% of the previous month. The prosperity level of the non manufacturing industry declined, and the overall business activities of enterprises slowed down.
(1) the prosperity level of the service industry has dropped significantly. The service industry was significantly affected by this round of public health events. The business activity index was 46.7%, which was 3.8% and 8.5% lower than that of last month and the same period of last year, respectively. From the perspective of the industry, railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering and other contact aggregation industries are greatly affected by public health events, business activities are significantly reduced, business activity index is decreased by more than 20.0 percentage points, and the business pressure of enterprises is increased. At the same time, the prosperity level of some industries is relatively high. The business activity index of Telecom, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services industries are all in the high boom range of more than 60.0%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly.
(2) the prosperity level of the construction industry increased slightly. With the warming climate, the construction progress of the construction industry has been accelerated. The business activity index was 58.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 64.7%, higher than 6.1% of the previous month, rising to the high prosperity range. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 60.3%, which is somewhat lower than that of last month, but it is still in the high boom range, and enterprises are still optimistic about the development prospect of the industry.
3、 The composite PMI output index fell to the contraction range
In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 48.8%, lower than 2.4% of the previous month, indicating that the prosperity level of production and operation of Chinese enterprises has declined. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, are 49.5% and 48.4% respectively. Although the overall prosperity level of China's economy has declined, the expected index of manufacturing and non manufacturing business activities are 55.7% and 54.6% respectively, which continue to stay in the boom range, and most enterprises are still confident of market development.
(source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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