U.S. Resistance To The Epidemic And Other Factors, Textile Industry Expectations Are Not Clear

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According to Mysteel data, in early April, the overall operating rate of the mill was 75.4%, 0.58% month on month, down 16.7% year on year; The inventory of major cotton industry in China was 26.8 days, down 6.9 days month on month, 15.5 days lower than the same period; The yarn production and sales rate was 82.3%, with a month on month decrease of 5% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%; The inventory of finished yarn was 29.8 days, increased by 5.6 days month on month, and increased by 16.5 days year on year.

At the beginning of April, the production and sales rate of grey fabric end was 73.3%, with a month on month decrease of 11.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%; Cotton cloth inventory in major cities nationwide was 49.4 days, 4.6 days and 13.8 days respectively.

Spinning immediate profit loss of 1000-1500 yuan / ton, and the loss of profits of textile enterprises will continue. In the middle of November 2021, China's textile enterprises c32s ring spinning spot profit loss, has continued to this day; Taking Shandong as an example, the current double 28 index cotton to the factory price is about 23100 yuan / ton, while the average price of Shandong pure cotton 32S ring spinning is 29500 yuan / ton, and the spinning profit is - 800.6 yuan / ton; Cotton price high shock, cotton yarn cost is difficult to reduce.

On the whole, cotton yarn and grey cloth end start-up showed a significant downward trend from March to April, finished yarn and cotton cloth inventory soared, and the market was still weak under the premise of the start-up decline; Market confidence is obviously insufficient. Affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, the system is down-regulated and even has a holiday of 7-10 days; Some manufacturers with high inventory and serious loss take the initiative to reduce the load; High inventory and negative profit of cotton yarn lead to trample on market price.

However, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2022, the cumulative retail value of China's clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles was 238.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.95 billion yuan or 5.28%; According to customs data, from January to February 2022, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $50.202 billion, an increase of 8.86% year-on-year, of which the cumulative export volume of textiles was 24.741 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 11.85%; The cumulative export volume of clothing was US $25.461 billion, up 6.01% year on year. In 2021, China's textile and clothing exports reached 322.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9%, an increase of 18.9% compared with that in 2019, accounting for 9.6% of China's total exports of goods. According to the statistics of foreign trade amount, China's textile and garment import and export reached the highest level in history in 2021. It is expected that in the short term, the two data will continue to grow year on year, with a slight decrease on the month on month basis, which will slightly support the textile market.

According to the consumption expenditure data of clothing, shoes and hats of Chinese households, the consumption amount of urban and rural households increased in the second quarter, which still has guidance for the textile market.

In addition, with the control of the epidemic situation and the unsealing of cities, the short-term market demand will appear; Internal and external cotton, cotton yarn prices upside down shows that China's cotton products are of high quality and low price, and short-term order backflow is not ruled out.