National Bureau Of Statistics: CPI PPI And Interpretation Of The Data Of 0.8% Year-On-Year Decline In Factory Prices Of Industrial Producers In January

In January 2023, the ex factory price of industrial producers across the country dropped 0.8% year on year and 0.4% month on month; The purchase price of industrial producers rose 0.1% year on year and fell 0.7% month on month.

1、 YoY changes in industrial producer prices in January

Among the ex factory prices of industrial producers, the price of means of production dropped by 1.4%, affecting the overall level of ex factory prices of industrial producers by about 1.10 percentage points. Among them, the price of mining industry rose by 2.0%, the price of raw material industry fell by 0.1%, and the price of processing industry fell by 2.3%. The price of means of living rose by 1.5%, affecting the overall level of factory prices of industrial producers by 0.35 percentage points. Among them, food prices rose 2.8%, clothing prices rose 1.9%, general commodity prices rose 1.2%, and durable consumer goods prices rose 0.3%.

Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the price of fuel and power increased by 7.2%, and the price of agricultural and sideline products increased by 5.2%; The prices of ferrous materials fell 7.8%, building materials and non-metallic materials fell 5.3%, chemical raw materials fell 4.7%, and non-ferrous materials and wires fell 1.8%.

2、 Change of industrial producer prices in January on a month on month basis

Among the ex factory prices of industrial producers, the price of means of production dropped by 0.5%, which affected the overall level of ex factory prices of industrial producers by about 0.38 percentage points. Among them, the price of mining industry dropped by 1.0%, the price of raw material industry dropped by 0.7%, and the price of processing industry dropped by 0.4%. The price of means of living fell by 0.3%, which affected the overall level of factory prices of industrial producers by about 0.06 percentage points. Among them, the price of food fell by 0.5%, the price of clothing fell by 0.3%, the price of general daily necessities remained flat, and the price of durable consumer goods fell by 0.2%.

Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of agricultural and sideline products fell by 2.3%, fuel and power by 1.3%, chemical raw materials by 1.2%, building materials and non-metallic materials by 0.7%; The price of ferrous materials rose 0.7%, and the price of nonferrous materials and wires rose 0.4%.

Issued by the National Bureau of Statistics today The national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) data in January 2023 were obtained. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

1、 CPI increased

In January, affected by the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, consumer prices rose.

On a month on month basis, CPI increased 0.8% from flat last month. Among them, food prices rose by 2.8%, 2.3 percentage points higher than that of last month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.52 percentage points. In food, influenced by seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh mushrooms, fresh fruits, potatoes and aquatic products increased by 19.6%, 13.8%, 9.2%, 6.4% and 5.5% respectively, which were larger than those of last month; The supply of live pigs continued to increase, and the price of pork fell by 10.8%, 2.1 percentage points more than that of last month. Non food prices rose 0.3% from a 0.2% drop last month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.25 percentage points. In non food, with the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption has increased significantly, and the prices of air tickets, vehicle rental fees, film and performance tickets, and tourism have increased by 20.3%, 13.0%, 10.7%, and 9.3% respectively; Affected by the return of migrant workers and the increased demand for services before the festival, the prices of domestic services, pet services, vehicle repair and maintenance, hairdressing and other services all rose, with an increase of 3.8% - 5.6%; Affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell by 2.4% and 2.6% respectively.

From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 2.1%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, food prices rose by 6.2%, 1.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 1.13 percentage points. In food, the prices of fresh mushrooms, fruits and vegetables rose by 15.9%, 13.1% and 6.7% respectively; Pork prices rose 11.8%, down 10.4 percentage points from the previous month; The prices of eggs, poultry and aquatic products rose by 8.6%, 8.0% and 4.8% respectively; The prices of grain and edible oil rose by 2.7% and 6.5% respectively. Non food prices rose 1.2%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth of about 0.98 percentage points. Among non food products, service prices rose by 1.0%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; Energy prices rose by 3.0%, 2.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, of which gasoline, diesel and LPG prices rose by 5.5%, 5.9% and 4.9% respectively, all of which fell back.

It is estimated that among the 2.1% year-on-year CPI increase in January, the tail lifting impact of last year's price change is about 1.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases is about 0.8 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.0% year on year, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month.

2、 PPI continues to decline

In January, due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and the downward trend of domestic coal prices, the overall price of industrial products continued to decline.

On a month on month basis, PPI fell by 0.4%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 0.5%, and the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; The price of means of living fell by 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point. The import factors affected the price decline of domestic oil related industries, among which the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry dropped by 5.5%, the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry dropped by 3.2%, and the price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry dropped by 1.3%. The coal supply guarantee continued to work, and the price of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 0.5% from 0.8% last month. The steel market is expected to improve. The price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 1.5%, or 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the prices of agricultural and sideline food processing industry dropped by 1.4%, the prices of computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry dropped by 1.2%, and the prices of textile industry dropped by 0.7%; The prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries were flat.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 0.8%, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production dropped by 1.4%, the same as that of the previous month; The price of means of living rose by 1.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. Of the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, 15 saw their prices fall, the same as last month. In major industries, the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 11.7%, or 3.0 percentage points; The price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 5.1%, the same as that of last month; The price of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 4.4%, with a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; The price of the textile industry dropped by 3.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points. In addition, the prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 6.2%, falling 3.9 percentage points; The price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry rose 5.3%, down 9.1 percentage points; The price of coal mining and washing industry increased by 0.4% from 2.7% last month.

It is estimated that among the 0.8% year-on-year decline in PPI in January, the tail raising impact of last year's price change is about - 0.4 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases is about - 0.4 percentage points.