USDA: 2023/24 Global Cotton Market Forecast

Global Cotton 2023/24 Outlook

It is estimated that the global cotton harvest area in 2023/24 will be 31.5 million hectares, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%; The output was 25.04 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% (mainly due to the expected increase in the output of the United States and Pakistan, which offset the expected production reduction in China and Turkey); The consumption will increase with the slow improvement of the world economy, and is expected to be 25.15 million tons, up 4.4% year on year; The ending inventory was 19.29 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%; The inventory consumption ratio was 76.7%, down 3.8% year on year.

China Cotton 2023/24 Outlook

It is estimated that the cotton harvest area of China in 2023/24 will be 3 million hectares, a slight decrease on a year-on-year basis; The output was 5.94 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; Consumption was 8.06 million tons, up 2.8% year on year (consumption growth was mainly based on the International Monetary Fund's expectation of China's economic growth recovery in 2023 and 2024, as well as the expectation that household savings would increase during the epidemic blockade period, thus increasing residents' consumption of cotton products); The ending inventory was 7.86 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; The inventory consumption ratio was 97.3%, down 6.4% year on year.

2023/24 Outlook of American Cotton

It is estimated that the planting area of American cotton in 2023/24 will be 10.9 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% (previously NCC forecast was 11.4 million acres); The harvest area was 8.9 million acres, up 19.6% year on year; Abandoned yield was 18.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%; The average yield per unit area was 852 pounds/acre, down 10% year on year; The output was 3.44 million tons, an increase of 7.6% year on year (the increase in output was mainly due to the increase in harvest area and the decrease in abandoned yield); The consumption was 500000 tons, up 9.5% year on year; The export will increase with the improvement of the global economy, which is expected to be 3 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15%; The ending inventory was 870000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%; The inventory consumption ratio was 24.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%.