National Bureau Of Statistics: The Purchasing Managers' Index Of Manufacturing Industry Rose Slightly In June

On June 30, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.0%, up 0.2 percentage points over the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 53.2% and 52.3%, respectively, down 1.3 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be in the expansion range, and China's economy maintained a recovery trend of development.

1、 Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly

In June, the PMI of the manufacturing industry picked up slightly, and 12 of the 21 industries surveyed rose month on month, 4 more than that of the previous month. The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry improved.

（1） The index of production and demand has rebounded. The production index was 50.3%, up 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, returning to the expansion range, and the production activities of manufacturing enterprises accelerated; The index of new orders was 48.6%, up 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. From the perspective of industry, the two indexes of automobile, railway ship aerospace equipment, electrical mechanical equipment, computer communication electronic equipment and other industries are in the expansion range, and the production and demand release is fast.

（2） The price index is higher than that of last month. Recently, the prices of some bulk commodities continued to decline, and the market prices of the manufacturing industry generally fell, but the range was narrowed. The purchase price index of main raw materials and the ex factory price index were 45.0% and 43.9%, respectively, 4.2 and 2.3 percentage points higher than last month. The proportion of enterprises with high cost of raw materials and logistics reflected in the survey fell for four consecutive months, and the cost pressure of enterprises eased.

（3） PMI of large enterprises returns to the expansion range. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. In particular, the production index and new order index were higher than the critical point for two consecutive months, and the production and demand continued to grow, significantly driving the PMI of the manufacturing industry this month; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.9%, 1.3 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the prosperity level was improved; The PMI of small enterprises was 46.4%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month.

（4） Some key industries continued to expand. The PMI of equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry was 50.9% and 51.2% respectively, up 0.5 and 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, both rebounding for two consecutive months, and the industry expansion has increased; The PMI of the consumer goods industry is 50.7%, and the industry operates stably; The PMI of energy intensive industries was 46.6%, up 0.8 percentage points over the previous month.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index continued to expand

In June, the non manufacturing business activity index was 53.2%, continuing to maintain the expansion trend.

（1） The service industry continued to recover. The business activity index of the service industry was 52.8%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, still in the expansion range, and the service industry continued to maintain its recovery and development trend. From the perspective of industry, the business activity index of air transport, postal express, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries are all in the high boom range of 60.0% or above, and the total business volume has grown rapidly. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities was 60.3%, up 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, and the confidence of service industry enterprises was strengthened. Among them, the expected index of business activities in railway transportation, air transportation, catering, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services and other industries is higher than 67.0%, and the industry development is expected to continue to be good.

（2） The construction industry expanded rapidly. The business activity index of the construction industry was 55.7%, down 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, still in a high boom zone, and the production of the construction industry maintained a rapid growth. Among them, the business activity index and new order index of civil engineering construction industry were 64.3% and 53.9% respectively, up 2.6 and 2.2 percentage points over the previous month. The expansion of production and demand of civil engineering construction industry accelerated. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 60.3%, which has been at a high boom range of more than 60.0% since this year. Construction enterprises have strong confidence in the development of the industry.

3、 Comprehensive PMI output index continues to expand

In June, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.3%, which continued to be in the expansion range, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 50.3% and 53.2% respectively.