National Bureau Of Statistics: Manufacturing PMI Continued To Rise In July

On July 31, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

In July, the purchasing managers' index of the manufacturing industry was 49.3%, up 0.3 percentage points over the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 51.5% and 51.1% respectively, both of which were in the expansion range for seven consecutive months. China's economy continued to recover. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of manufacturing production and operation activities and the expected index of non manufacturing business activities are 55.1% and 59.0% respectively, both in a relatively high boom zone, and the overall confidence of enterprises is stable.

1、 Manufacturing PMI continued to rise

In July, the PMI of the manufacturing industry rose slightly for two consecutive months. Ten of the 21 industries surveyed were in the expansion range, two more than the previous month. The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to improve.

(I) The production index keeps expanding. The production index was 50.2%, which was basically the same as that of the previous month and remained in the expansion range. The new order index was 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of the manufacturing industry were stable and the prosperity of market demand was improved. In terms of industry, the production index and new order index of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, special equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer communication electronic equipment and other industries are higher than the critical point, and the production and demand are expanding simultaneously.

(II) The price index continued to rise. The purchase price index of main raw materials and the ex factory price index were 52.4% and 48.6% respectively, up 7.4 and 4.7 percentage points over the previous month. The purchase price index of main raw materials rose to the expansion range, and the overall price level of raw materials for manufacturing production rose. In terms of industry, the purchase price index of main raw materials in agricultural and sideline food processing, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing and other industries rose to more than 60.0%, and the purchase price of some raw materials rose significantly.

（3） The prosperity level of small enterprises has improved. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, and continued to be in the expansion range, which significantly supported the overall manufacturing industry. The production index of large enterprises and the new order index were in the expansion range for 7 consecutive months and 3 consecutive months, respectively, and the production and demand kept growing. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.0%, up 0.1 percentage point over the previous month; The PMI of small enterprises was 47.4%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level improved.

（4） The expectation index rose to a higher boom zone. The expected index of production and business activities was 55.1%, 1.7 percentage points higher than that of last month, indicating that with the introduction of a series of policies to promote the development and growth of the private economy, expand domestic demand and promote consumption, positive factors for market development continued to increase and enterprise confidence increased. In particular, the expected index of production and operation activities in the consumer goods industry has always been higher than 55.0% this year, rising to 58.0% this month. Enterprises have a better expectation of the recent development of the industry.

Globally, the initial PMI of manufacturing in the United States and the euro area in July was 49.0% and 42.7%, respectively, which continued to be below the critical point. Manufacturing in Europe, the United States and other major economic systems continued to shrink. Although China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.3% this month, some enterprises in the survey reflected that the current external environment is complex and severe, overseas orders are reduced, and insufficient demand is still the main difficulty faced by enterprises.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index is still expanding

In July, the non manufacturing business activity index was 51.5%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. The non manufacturing industry continued to expand.

（1） The service industry continued to recover. The business activity index of the service industry was 51.5%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that of last month, still in the expansion range. The total business volume of the service industry continued to grow, but the growth slowed down.

From the perspective of industry, driven by summer consumption, residents' leisure consumption and tourism travel have increased. The business activity index of railway transport, air transport, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries are all located in the high boom zone of more than 55.0%, and the market activity has significantly increased; The new driving force of the service industry continued to release. The business activity index of telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, Internet software, information technology services and other industries was higher than 60.0%. The business activities of enterprises were accelerated, and the total business volume continued to expand. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 58.7%, maintaining a high level of operation. Among the 21 industries surveyed, except for the real estate industry, the expected index of business activities of other industries is in the boom zone, and the confidence of service industry enterprises is relatively stable.

（2） The construction industry continued to expand. The business activity index of the construction industry was 51.2%, 4.5 percentage points lower than that of last month, still in the expansion range, indicating that the construction progress of the construction industry has slowed down recently due to adverse factors such as high temperature and rainy weather. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 60.5%, up 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that although the prosperity level of the construction industry has fallen, most enterprises are still optimistic about the development of the construction industry.

3、 Continuous expansion of comprehensive PMI output index

In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.1%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, still in the expansion range, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand in general. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index are 50.2% and 51.5% respectively.