Monthly Analysis Of Cotton Textile Industry: Export Stabilized And Recovered, And Domestic Consumption Increased

In November, the Federal Reserve still slowed down the pace of interest rate increase and kept the federal fund interest rate stable, which helped to stabilize market confidence. Superimposed on the improvement of market consumption, textile and clothing consumption showed marginal signs of improvement. However, the overall market demand is still lower than that of the same period in previous years. With the increase of new cotton supply in China, the spot price of cotton fell, the quantity and price of cotton yarn and grey cloth weakened, downstream customers stayed on the sidelines, and product inventory accumulated. The year-on-year decrease of yarn and cloth production narrowed

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the yarn output of cotton textile enterprises above designated size dropped 0.92% year on year, 0.23 percentage points lower than that from January to October; The cloth production has decreased by 3.78% year on year, 0.44 percentage points lower than that from January to October.

Export stabilized and recovered, and domestic consumption increased

Export continued to stabilize and showed strong development resilience. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, from January to November, China's textile and clothing exports fell 8.9% year on year, narrowing for four consecutive months, and keeping the overall trend of recovery. In November, China's textile and clothing exports fell 1.8% year on year. Among the four traditional markets, the United States, ASEAN, the European Union and Japan accounted for 50.6% of China's exports in total. Among them, exports to the United States rose 4.5% year on year, maintaining growth for the third consecutive month; Exports to ASEAN fell by 5.7% year on year, significantly narrower than that in October; Exports to the EU continued to decline at a double-digit rate, down 13.8% year on year; Exports to Japan declined by 14.3%, and their share in China's export market continued to decline. Domestic terminal textile consumption accelerated. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, and knitwear and textiles above the designated size increased by 11.5% year on year, 1.3 percentage points higher than that from January to October, and 7.2% higher than that of the total retail sales of consumer goods; The online retail sales of physical goods and clothing goods increased by 9.2% year on year, 1.6 percentage points higher than that from January to September, and lower than the 11.0% growth rate of the national online retail sales.

The price of products is lower and the inventory pressure is increased

In November, the focus of domestic cotton spot price continued to move downward, and the purchase and sales weakened. Textile enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales. Weaving enterprises' orders were lower than those in the same period of previous years. Cotton yarn was purchased as needed, and the pressure on gray fabric inventory increased. Taking the price difference between 32 pure cotton yarns and 3128B standard grade cotton as a representative, the average price difference of fancy yarns in November was about 6300 yuan/ton, slightly better than that in October, but according to the spot profit, the enterprise is still in a loss state.

The decline of major economic indicators continued to narrow

The decline in major economic indicators of the cotton textile industry continued to narrow. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the operating revenue of cotton spinning enterprises above designated size dropped 5.96% year on year, 1.07 percentage points lower than that from January to October, the total profit turned from negative to positive, with a year-on-year growth of 8.81%, and the loss area was 25.59%, 1.31 percentage points lower than that from January to October; The operating revenue of cotton weaving enterprises decreased by 3.55% year on year, 0.97 percentage points lower than that of January October, and the total profit decreased by 0.78% year on year, 4.05 percentage points lower than that of January October, 20.16% lower than that of January October, 1.15 percentage points lower than that of January October. Although the revenue of cotton spinning and cotton weaving industries above designated size decreased more than that of the textile industry from January to November, the total profit of cotton spinning and cotton weaving industries was better than that of the textile industry as a whole, and the benefits of cotton textile enterprises were gradually improved.

On the whole, there are some positive factors in China's foreign trade. Inflation in Europe and the United States has cooled. Overseas markets have entered the traditional sales season, and consumer demand has been released. At the same time, under the effect of a series of consumption promotion policies, the domestic consumer market has continued to recover and its development resilience has continued to show. However, the external environment is still complex and severe, and the current residents' consumption capacity and confidence are still insufficient, which will have an impact on textile and clothing consumption to a certain extent.