Pay Attention To American Cotton Growers Who Plan To Plant 9.8 Million Acres Of Cotton This Year

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According to the 43rd annual early planting intention survey of the National Cotton Council (NCC), American cotton growers plan to plant 9.8 million acres of cotton this spring, down 3.7% from 2023.

The intention of upland cotton is 9.6 million acres, down 4.3% from 2023, and the intention of extra long fiber cotton (ELS) is 202 thousand acres, up 37.7%.

Dr. Jody Campiche, vice chairman of NCC in charge of economic and policy analysis, said: "The planting area is only one of the factors that determine the supply of cotton and cottonseed. The final weather and agronomic conditions are important factors that determine the crop yield."

According to the 10-year average seed rejection rate and considering the current humidity conditions and some state level adjustments, the total cotton belt harvest area will be 8.1 million acres in 2024, and the seed rejection rate in the United States will be 17.9%. Using the 5-year average yield in the southeast and central south and the 10-year average yield in the southwest and west, the cotton output will reach 14.6 million bales, of which 14 million bales are upland cotton and 538000 bales are ELS cotton.

NCC will mail a questionnaire to cotton belt growers in 17 states in mid December 2023, asking them about the number of cotton and other crops planted in 2023 and the planned planting area for the next season. The survey responses were collected to the middle of January.

Campiche pointed out: "History shows that American farmers will respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. Compared with the average futures prices in the first quarter of 2023, the prices of all commodities during the survey period are low, but cotton prices have the smallest decline. Therefore, the price ratio of cotton to corn and soybeans is higher than that in 2023. According to the historical price relationship, this usually means an increase in cotton planting area. However, the 2024 crop year may violate this relationship, because the production cost is higher than the current price. "

Southeast respondents said that the cotton planting area will decline by 4.8% to 2.1 million acres. In Alabama, the survey results show that the cotton planting area will be reduced by 8.8%. In Florida, respondents said that the cotton planting area will be reduced by 6.2%. The cotton planting area in Georgia is expected to decrease by 0.6%, and the survey shows that the cotton planting area in North Carolina will decrease by 12.6%. South Carolina growers expect a 3.3% reduction in cotton acreage and Virginia growers expect a 9.6% reduction in cotton acreage. According to the survey results, the expected decrease in cotton planting area is due to the increase in the planting area of corn, soybeans and peanuts.

Central and southern growers plan to plant 1.6 million acres, 2.4% less than last year. The cotton planting area in Arkansas is expected to decrease by 7.3%, and that in Louisiana is expected to decrease by 5.0%. Mississippi cotton planting area is expected to increase by 1.3%. The cotton planting area in Missouri is expected to increase by 0.3%, while that in Tennessee is expected to decrease by 0.8%. The survey results show that the planting area of soybean and "other crops" has increased.

Southwestern growers plan to reduce cotton planting by 5.2%. Kansas cotton growers expect the cotton planting area to decrease by 0.8%, and Oklahoma cotton growers expect the cotton planting area to decrease by 6.9%. Texas planting area is expected to decline by 5.1%. Interviewees from southwest China said that the planting area of corn, sorghum and wheat will increase in 2024.

In the west, the land cotton planting area is expected to increase by 21.5%. It is estimated that Arizona's land cotton planting area will increase by 3.7%, California will increase by 62.9%, and New Mexico will increase by 46.9%. According to the survey results, the expected increase in land cotton planting area is due to the decrease of corn and "other crops" planting area.

It is estimated that the area of extra long fiber cotton (ELS) will increase by 37.7% in 2024. Arizona growers are expected to increase their ELS cotton planting by 14.3%, and California growers are expected to increase their ELS cotton planting by 62.2%. Due to the excessively humid weather in 2023, some land cannot be planted, and more normal weather conditions are expected to play a role in the increase of planting area. New Mexico ELS cotton planting area is expected to decline by 42.1%, and Texas growers expect ELS cotton planting area to increase by 22.0%. In general, American cotton growers plan to plant 202000 acres of ELS cotton in 2024.

The expectation is based on the intention snapshot of market conditions at the time of survey, and the actual planting is affected by market conditions and weather changes. Before the final determination of planting area in 2024, growers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs. Since the survey period, cotton prices have increased, while corn and soybean prices have further declined. The change of price ratio may lead to higher cotton planting area than NCC survey report.