Market Dynamics: Cotton Yarn Production And Sales Are Blocked, And The Stock Accumulation Rate Of Yarn Mills Is Rising

Since the end of February, Zheng Sha has continuously dived to the bottom, and the main CY2405 contract has dropped from 22535 yuan to 21010 yuan, down 1525 points, or 6.77%; In the same period, Zheng Mian's CF2405 contract only fell from 16450 yuan to 15815 yuan, down 635 points, or 3.86%. The strength and extent of the callback were significantly weaker than Zheng Sha's. What is more puzzling is that, since March, under the impact of the unexpected new orders, the obvious lack of "gold, silver and four" quality in the cotton textile and clothing industry, and the import cotton/cotton yarn is still "soaring", most cotton mills and traders have started a downward trend in cotton yarn quotations, but the cumulative range is more than 300-500 yuan/ton, which is weaker than the current falling space of cotton, It was more obviously lower than the decline of Zheng yarn CY2405 contract, and the spot could not stop Zheng yarn from falling back quickly.

According to the analysis of the insiders, the callback range and strength of Zheng yarn are much stronger than that of cotton and cotton yarn spot. There are several reasons for a relatively independent market:

On the one hand, Zheng Sha lacks hype and financial attention. After 186 warehouse receipts were cancelled by Zheng Yarn at the end of February, the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts in the whole month of March has been "0" (4 valid forecasts), which shows that Zheng Yarn can not appeal to cotton mills and cotton yarn trading enterprises at all, and the market is a game of speculation and capital. Once the wind direction deflects, it will trigger the panic of speculation, amplify the bad mood and trample on each other.

On the other hand, Chengya cotton yarn spot, defeated by cotton yarn spot, futures "wind vane" effect appears. Since December 2023, the cotton yarn market of cotton yarn spot has recovered in an all-round way. The main reason for the acceleration of de stocking is the return of large areas of profits and export traceability orders. When the new orders after the festival are significantly lower than expected, the lack of "gold, silver and four" quality has been hammered, the production and sales of cotton yarn have been blocked, the stock accumulation rate of yarn mills has risen, and anxiety and bearish sentiment continue to rise in the spot market, In addition, the cotton period is now falling back, and Zheng Shacheng has become a breakthrough to hit the plate and test the resistance of multiple heads.

Moreover, since 2023/24, the explosive growth of imported cotton and cotton yarn has had an increasing impact on the production and consumption of domestic cotton yarn, and Zheng yarn has been passively "back cooking". According to customs statistics, from January to February 2024, China imported about 640000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times; In the first six months of 2023/24, China imported about 1.733 million tons of cotton, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. From January to February 2024, China imported 240000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 55.4%; 902000 tons of imported cotton yarn in the first six months of 2023/24, up 94.4% year on year.

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