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    2013/4/7 17:33:00 151

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  在戰略層面,貴人鳥<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">從產品、市場和供應鏈管理等方面提升公司的核心競爭力,整合內外資源,不斷優化產品結構、豐富產品品類</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">的描述,已經被遠遠落在這個行業領先者身后。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  公布《首次公開發行股票招股說明書》一年之久,過會至今也有<font face="Times New Roman">10</font><font face="宋體">個月,貴人鳥仍未等到證監會批文。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥能否在行業變局之中踏著領先者的蹤跡后發制人,擺脫已經暴露的戰略迷失、關聯交易、家族造富游戲的<font face="Times New Roman">IPO</font><font face="宋體">敗筆,尚不可知。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">遭遇模式之變</span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o:p></o:p></span></p>


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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  但貴人鳥這個計劃未及完全實施,整個行業已經發生巨變<font face="Times New Roman">—</font><font face="宋體">領先者已經紛紛深陷泥淖,反思求變也已經開展。

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    按其在</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">12</font><font face="宋體">月</font><font face="Times New Roman">17</font><font face="宋體">日發出的預警公告,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">財年是李寧公司上市八年來的首次虧損。

    根據財報,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年上半年李寧公司收入為人民幣</font><font face="Times New Roman">38.8</font><font face="宋體">億元,凈利潤同比下跌</font><font face="Times New Roman">85</font><font face="宋體">%至</font><font face="Times New Roman">0.6</font><font face="宋體">億元。

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    由于對該行業前景預期悲觀,境內外投行已經下調</font></span><span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><a href="http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp">特步</a></span></span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">、</span><span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><a href="http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp">安踏</a></span></span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">等上市公司的評級。

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    公開數據顯示,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年上半年,李寧、安踏、</font><font face="Times New Roman">361</font><font face="宋體">度、特步、匹克等</font><font face="Times New Roman">42</font><font face="宋體">家上市服裝企業存貨總量就高達</font><font face="Times New Roman">483</font><font face="宋體">億元。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">告別高增長階段</span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o:p></o:p></span></p>


    'p class ='p0 'style ='margin -top:0pt;'margin -bottom:0pt' -'span style ='font -family: Times New Roman', font -size: 10.5pt;mso -spcerun:yes' '???? ??? ???? ??? ????.

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    <font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年,貴人鳥</font><font face="Times New Roman">3</font><font face="宋體">年的營業收入分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">60483.16</font><font face="宋體">萬元、</font><font face="Times New Roman">153499.55</font><font face="宋體">萬元和</font><font face="Times New Roman">264893.40</font><font face="宋體">萬元。

    同時,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年歸屬于公司股東的凈利潤則分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">7928.80</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">22238.42 </font><font face="宋體">萬元和</font><font face="Times New Roman">40784.08</font><font face="宋體">萬元。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  鑒于前述服裝行業整體變局以及行業模式之變,<a href="http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp">貴人鳥</a>所依賴的發展模式已經無法繼續支撐其未來的快速發展。

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    數據顯示,貴人鳥的存貨周轉率從<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">6.40</font><font face="宋體">次提高到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">9.44</font><font face="宋體">次,也就是存貨周轉天數由</font><font face="Times New Roman">56</font><font face="宋體">天縮短至</font><font face="Times New Roman">38</font><font face="宋體">天。

    但是公司</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年庫存商品卻較</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年末增加</font><font face="Times New Roman">0.57</font><font face="宋體">億元,增幅達</font><font face="Times New Roman">65.68%</font><font face="宋體">。

    同時,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的庫存商品更是高于</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年的庫存商品</font><font face="Times New Roman">4900.27</font><font face="宋體">萬元。

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    貴人鳥<font face="Times New Roman">2008</font><font face="宋體">年起開始享受國家兩免三減半的稅收優惠,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font><font face="宋體">年和 </font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年期間免征所得稅,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年至</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年期間減半征收所得稅,所得稅稅率為</font><font face="Times New Roman">12.5%</font><font face="宋體">。

    </font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年、</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年和</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年,所得稅優惠占凈利潤比分別達到</font><font face="Times New Roman">10.36%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">14.85%</font><font face="宋體">和</font><font face="Times New Roman">30.46%</font><font face="宋體">。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥于<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">~2011</font><font face="宋體">年上半年期間,主營業務的毛利率分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">27.04%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">31.95%</font><font face="宋體">及</font><font face="Times New Roman">38.66%</font><font face="宋體">,雖然增長較快,但對比同以二、三、四線城市用戶為目標客戶群的</font><font face="Times New Roman">361</font><font face="宋體">度、特步的毛利率都要低。

    以特步為例,其在</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">~2011</font><font face="宋體">年上半年期間毛利率分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">39.14%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">40.65%</font><font face="宋體">和</font><font face="Times New Roman">40.91%</font><font face="宋體">,而行業的平均值為</font><font face="Times New Roman">38.62%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">40.95%</font><font face="宋體">及</font><font face="Times New Roman">41.86%</font><font face="宋體">,貴人鳥毛利率尚未達到平均水平。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥品牌零售終端的平效由<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">4915.16</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米上升至</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">7044.45</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米,單位面積銷售收入雖有提升,但仍不及安踏、匹克和特步。

    </font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年度運動鞋服行業代表企業安踏、匹克和特步的收入平效分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">8495.77</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米、</font><font face="Times New Roman">7682.95</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米和</font><font face="Times New Roman">7428.66</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">系統性風險</span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o:p></o:p></span></p>


    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  行業發展到現在階段,領先者經歷著模式巨變之痛,貴人鳥卻仍然沉浸在<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">落后業態</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">不能自已。

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    'p class ='p0 'style ='margin -top:0pt;'margin -bottom:0pt' -'span style ='font -family: Times New Roman', font -size: 10.5pt;mso -spacerun:yes ''yes'? ??? ??? ?? ??? ?? ? ?? ??? ???? ???.

    ???? ??, ?? ?? ??? ????? ?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ????.

    以特步為例,特步<font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年的店鋪數量增長計劃將由</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">800~1000</font><font face="宋體">間,縮減至</font><font face="Times New Roman">400</font><font face="宋體">間。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥<font face="Times New Roman">2009~2011</font><font face="宋體">年品牌零售終端數由</font><font face="Times New Roman">1847 </font><font face="宋體">家擴張至</font><font face="Times New Roman">5067</font><font face="宋體">家,復合增長率</font><font face="Times New Roman">65.63%</font><font face="宋體">。

    </font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年內,貴人鳥在新開</font><font face="Times New Roman">1306</font><font face="宋體">家零售終端的同時,又關閉了</font><font face="Times New Roman">266</font><font face="宋體">家零售終端。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥的<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">全國戰略店鋪</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">,未來必將成為雞肋。

    ??? ?? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??? ????.

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    'p class ='p0 'style ='margin -top: 0pt, margin -bottom: 0pclassslasss ='ppclassssyle ='p0' style ='p0 'styttttstyle ='margpin -pt: 0pt, margin -bottom -bottttom: 0pt ((# (# # # (# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #??????? ??? ??? ??? ????.

    2010 <? ??? ?? ?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??, ?? ?? ???? ??? ?? ? ? ??? ?? ??? ?? ????.

    </font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年年底,安踏發布公告稱已經檢討</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的開店面計劃,并擬采取更審慎的方向,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年店面數量目標由原來的</font><font face="Times New Roman">8200</font><font face="宋體">家調為</font><font face="Times New Roman">7800~8000</font><font face="宋體">家。

    特步今年的店鋪數量增長計劃也將由去年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">800</font><font face="宋體">至</font><font face="Times New Roman">1000</font><font face="宋體">間,減少至</font><font face="Times New Roman">400</font><font face="宋體">間。

    ‘font face =‘Times New Roman ’? ??? ??? ??? ???? < font >? < font face >? ?? ???.

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥的<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">全國戰略店鋪</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">是貴人鳥擁有戰略店鋪的所有權或使用權,然后</font><font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">將經營權交給當地經銷商,意在加強與當地經銷商合作,加強零售終端控制能力</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">。

    'font (Times New Roman)'?'span style ='font -family)''Times New Roman'? ???, font -size: 10.5pt, mso -spaceun: yes ''yes' '-'? ??? span' '' -(span)'


    'p class ='p0 'style ='margin -top:0pt;'margin -bottom:0pt' -'span style ='font -family: Times New Roman', font -size: 10.5pt;mso -spcerun:yes''yes'? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??.

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥經銷商銷售收入占比已經逐年提高,<font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年已達到</font><font face="Times New Roman">99.61%</font><font face="宋體">。

    ??5???? ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????- < < ??? ?? ??.

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    <font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年度貴人鳥銷售收入較</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年增長</font><font face="Times New Roman">72.59%</font><font face="宋體">,凈利潤增長</font><font face="Times New Roman">83.34%</font><font face="宋體">。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  在高速增長的同時,貴人鳥期末現金及現金等價物余額卻較<font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年減少,應收帳款卻成倍增加,其增幅超越了銷售收入和凈利潤的增幅。

    貴人鳥</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年度應收賬款凈額分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">1.90</font><font face="宋體">億元、</font><font face="Times New Roman">4.07</font><font face="宋體">億元和</font><font face="Times New Roman">5.91</font><font face="宋體">億元。

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    貴人鳥應收賬款巨大,<font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">5.9</font><font face="宋體">億的應收帳款占流動資產超過</font><font face="Times New Roman">44%</font><font face="宋體">,巨額存貨跌價準備對利潤將構成巨大威脅。

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    'p class ='p0 'style ='margin -top:0pt;'margin -bottom:0pt''span style ='font -family: Times New Roman', font -size: 10.5pt;mso -spcerun:yes)'? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ?? ????.

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">林氏家族的<font face="Times New Roman">IPO</font><font face="宋體">游戲</font></span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o:p></o:p></span></p>


    'p class ='p0 'style ='margin -top:0pt;'margin -bottom:0pt' -'span style ='font -family: Times New Roman', font -size: 10.5pt;mso -spcerun:yes''yes' '?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???.

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    ‘p class =‘p0 ’ style =‘margin -top:0pt, margin -bottom:0pt ’? ‘span style =‘font -family: Times New Roman ’, font -size: 10.5pt, mso -spcerun:yes ’(yes)’? ???? ?? ???? ? ? ?? ? ??.

    貴人鳥集團持有公司股份比例為<font face="Times New Roman">92.26%</font><font face="宋體">,億興投資持有公司股份比例為</font><font face="Times New Roman">4.74%</font><font face="宋體">,貴人鳥投資持有公司股份比例為</font><font face="Times New Roman">2%</font><font face="宋體">,弘智投資持有公司股份比例為</font><font face="Times New Roman">1%</font><font face="宋體">。

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    'p class ='p0 'style ='margin -totop: 0pt, margin -bottom: 0pclassslasss ='ppclassstttttttttttttttttttttsyle ='margpin -top -pt, margin -bottttom: pt, margin -bottttttpppt: (# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #‘font face =‘?? ’? ?? 92.26%, ‘???? ?? ??? ’? ?? (`

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥畸形的股權結構浮出水面<font face="Times New Roman">——</font><font face="宋體">貴人鳥集團、貴人鳥投資、弘智投資的實際控制人均為林氏家族成員,存在關聯關系。

    ?? ????????????????????????? ????.

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  非林氏家族的億興投資之所以能持有貴人鳥股份,是在即將<font face="Times New Roman">IPO</font><font face="宋體">沖刺的最后階段,貴人鳥迫于證券監督的壓力,突擊引進投資人億興投資。

    億興投資成立于</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">6</font><font face="宋體">月</font><font face="Times New Roman">22</font><font face="宋體">日,其股東為林國清(持股</font><font face="Times New Roman">70%</font><font face="宋體">)和唐向榮(持股</font><font face="Times New Roman">30%</font><font face="宋體">)。

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    <p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">  貴人鳥向樂益鞋材、泰昌鞋材關聯采購總額占<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年至</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年期間當期鞋材采購總額的比例分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">2.45%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">10.17%</font><font face="宋體">和</font><font face="Times New Roman">6.68%</font><font face="宋體">,占比較高,對公司經營成果產生重大影響。

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    比如</font><font face="Times New Roman">PU</font><font face="宋體">鞋底,市場價僅為</font><font face="Times New Roman">12.84</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">雙,而貴人鳥的采購價高達</font><font face="Times New Roman">17.10</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">雙,是市場價的</font><font face="Times New Roman">1.33</font><font face="宋體">倍。

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