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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 在戰(zhàn)略層面,貴人鳥<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">從產(chǎn)品、市場和供應(yīng)鏈管理等方面提升公司的核心競爭力,整合內(nèi)外資源,不斷優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、豐富產(chǎn)品品類</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">的描述,已經(jīng)被遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落在這個(gè)行業(yè)領(lǐng)先者身后。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 公布《首次公開發(fā)行股票招股說明書》一年之久,過會至今也有<font face="Times New Roman">10</font><font face="宋體">個(gè)月,貴人鳥仍未等到證監(jiān)會批文。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥能否在行業(yè)變局之中踏著領(lǐng)先者的蹤跡后發(fā)制人,擺脫已經(jīng)暴露的戰(zhàn)略迷失、關(guān)聯(lián)交易、家族造富游戲的<font face="Times New Roman">IPO</font><font face="宋體">敗筆,尚不可知。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">遭遇模式之變</span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o(jì):p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 但貴人鳥這個(gè)計(jì)劃未及完全實(shí)施,整個(gè)行業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)生巨變<font face="Times New Roman">—</font><font face="宋體">領(lǐng)先者已經(jīng)紛紛深陷泥淖,反思求變也已經(jīng)開展。
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按其在</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">12</font><font face="宋體">月</font><font face="Times New Roman">17</font><font face="宋體">日發(fā)出的預(yù)警公告,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">財(cái)年是李寧公司上市八年來的首次虧損。
根據(jù)財(cái)報(bào),</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年上半年李寧公司收入為人民幣</font><font face="Times New Roman">38.8</font><font face="宋體">億元,凈利潤同比下跌</font><font face="Times New Roman">85</font><font face="宋體">%至</font><font face="Times New Roman">0.6</font><font face="宋體">億元。
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由于對該行業(yè)前景預(yù)期悲觀,境內(nèi)外投行已經(jīng)下調(diào)</font></span><span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><a href="http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp">特步</a></span></span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">、</span><span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><a href="http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp">安踏</a></span></span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">等上市公司的評級。
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公開數(shù)據(jù)顯示,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年上半年,李寧、安踏、</font><font face="Times New Roman">361</font><font face="宋體">度、特步、匹克等</font><font face="Times New Roman">42</font><font face="宋體">家上市服裝企業(yè)存貨總量就高達(dá)</font><font face="Times New Roman">483</font><font face="宋體">億元。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">告別高增長階段</span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o(jì):p></o:p></span></p>
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<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年,貴人鳥</font><font face="Times New Roman">3</font><font face="宋體">年的營業(yè)收入分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">60483.16</font><font face="宋體">萬元、</font><font face="Times New Roman">153499.55</font><font face="宋體">萬元和</font><font face="Times New Roman">264893.40</font><font face="宋體">萬元。
同時(shí),</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年歸屬于公司股東的凈利潤則分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">7928.80</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">22238.42 </font><font face="宋體">萬元和</font><font face="Times New Roman">40784.08</font><font face="宋體">萬元。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 鑒于前述服裝行業(yè)整體變局以及行業(yè)模式之變,<a href="http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp">貴人鳥</a>所依賴的發(fā)展模式已經(jīng)無法繼續(xù)支撐其未來的快速發(fā)展。
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數(shù)據(jù)顯示,貴人鳥的存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率從<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">6.40</font><font face="宋體">次提高到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">9.44</font><font face="宋體">次,也就是存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)由</font><font face="Times New Roman">56</font><font face="宋體">天縮短至</font><font face="Times New Roman">38</font><font face="宋體">天。
但是公司</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年庫存商品卻較</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年末增加</font><font face="Times New Roman">0.57</font><font face="宋體">億元,增幅達(dá)</font><font face="Times New Roman">65.68%</font><font face="宋體">。
同時(shí),</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的庫存商品更是高于</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年的庫存商品</font><font face="Times New Roman">4900.27</font><font face="宋體">萬元。
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貴人鳥<font face="Times New Roman">2008</font><font face="宋體">年起開始享受國家兩免三減半的稅收優(yōu)惠,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font><font face="宋體">年和 </font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年期間免征所得稅,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年至</font><font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年期間減半征收所得稅,所得稅稅率為</font><font face="Times New Roman">12.5%</font><font face="宋體">。
</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年、</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年和</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年,所得稅優(yōu)惠占凈利潤比分別達(dá)到</font><font face="Times New Roman">10.36%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">14.85%</font><font face="宋體">和</font><font face="Times New Roman">30.46%</font><font face="宋體">。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥于<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">~2011</font><font face="宋體">年上半年期間,主營業(yè)務(wù)的毛利率分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">27.04%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">31.95%</font><font face="宋體">及</font><font face="Times New Roman">38.66%</font><font face="宋體">,雖然增長較快,但對比同以二、三、四線城市用戶為目標(biāo)客戶群的</font><font face="Times New Roman">361</font><font face="宋體">度、特步的毛利率都要低。
以特步為例,其在</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">~2011</font><font face="宋體">年上半年期間毛利率分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">39.14%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">40.65%</font><font face="宋體">和</font><font face="Times New Roman">40.91%</font><font face="宋體">,而行業(yè)的平均值為</font><font face="Times New Roman">38.62%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">40.95%</font><font face="宋體">及</font><font face="Times New Roman">41.86%</font><font face="宋體">,貴人鳥毛利率尚未達(dá)到平均水平。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥品牌零售終端的平效由<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">4915.16</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米上升至</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">7044.45</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米,單位面積銷售收入雖有提升,但仍不及安踏、匹克和特步。
</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年度運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋服行業(yè)代表企業(yè)安踏、匹克和特步的收入平效分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">8495.77</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米、</font><font face="Times New Roman">7682.95</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米和</font><font face="Times New Roman">7428.66</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">平方米。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o(jì):p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 行業(yè)發(fā)展到現(xiàn)在階段,領(lǐng)先者經(jīng)歷著模式巨變之痛,貴人鳥卻仍然沉浸在<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">落后業(yè)態(tài)</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">不能自已。
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以特步為例,特步<font face="Times New Roman">2012</font><font face="宋體">年的店鋪數(shù)量增長計(jì)劃將由</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">800~1000</font><font face="宋體">間,縮減至</font><font face="Times New Roman">400</font><font face="宋體">間。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥<font face="Times New Roman">2009~2011</font><font face="宋體">年品牌零售終端數(shù)由</font><font face="Times New Roman">1847 </font><font face="宋體">家擴(kuò)張至</font><font face="Times New Roman">5067</font><font face="宋體">家,復(fù)合增長率</font><font face="Times New Roman">65.63%</font><font face="宋體">。
</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年內(nèi),貴人鳥在新開</font><font face="Times New Roman">1306</font><font face="宋體">家零售終端的同時(shí),又關(guān)閉了</font><font face="Times New Roman">266</font><font face="宋體">家零售終端。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥的<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">全國戰(zhàn)略店鋪</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">,未來必將成為雞肋。
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</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年年底,安踏發(fā)布公告稱已經(jīng)檢討</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年的開店面計(jì)劃,并擬采取更審慎的方向,</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年店面數(shù)量目標(biāo)由原來的</font><font face="Times New Roman">8200</font><font face="宋體">家調(diào)為</font><font face="Times New Roman">7800~8000</font><font face="宋體">家。
特步今年的店鋪數(shù)量增長計(jì)劃也將由去年的</font><font face="Times New Roman">800</font><font face="宋體">至</font><font face="Times New Roman">1000</font><font face="宋體">間,減少至</font><font face="Times New Roman">400</font><font face="宋體">間。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥的<font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">全國戰(zhàn)略店鋪</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">是貴人鳥擁有戰(zhàn)略店鋪的所有權(quán)或使用權(quán),然后</font><font face="Times New Roman">“</font><font face="宋體">將經(jīng)營權(quán)交給當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)銷商,意在加強(qiáng)與當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)銷商合作,加強(qiáng)零售終端控制能力</font><font face="Times New Roman">”</font><font face="宋體">。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥經(jīng)銷商銷售收入占比已經(jīng)逐年提高,<font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年已達(dá)到</font><font face="Times New Roman">99.61%</font><font face="宋體">。
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<font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年度貴人鳥銷售收入較</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年增長</font><font face="Times New Roman">72.59%</font><font face="宋體">,凈利潤增長</font><font face="Times New Roman">83.34%</font><font face="宋體">。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 在高速增長的同時(shí),貴人鳥期末現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價(jià)物余額卻較<font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年減少,應(yīng)收帳款卻成倍增加,其增幅超越了銷售收入和凈利潤的增幅。
貴人鳥</font><font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年到</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年度應(yīng)收賬款凈額分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">1.90</font><font face="宋體">億元、</font><font face="Times New Roman">4.07</font><font face="宋體">億元和</font><font face="Times New Roman">5.91</font><font face="宋體">億元。
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貴人鳥應(yīng)收賬款巨大,<font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">5.9</font><font face="宋體">億的應(yīng)收帳款占流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)超過</font><font face="Times New Roman">44%</font><font face="宋體">,巨額存貨跌價(jià)準(zhǔn)備對利潤將構(gòu)成巨大威脅。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> </span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘">林氏家族的<font face="Times New Roman">IPO</font><font face="宋體">游戲</font></span><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"><o(jì):p></o:p></span></p>
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貴人鳥集團(tuán)持有公司股份比例為<font face="Times New Roman">92.26%</font><font face="宋體">,億興投資持有公司股份比例為</font><font face="Times New Roman">4.74%</font><font face="宋體">,貴人鳥投資持有公司股份比例為</font><font face="Times New Roman">2%</font><font face="宋體">,弘智投資持有公司股份比例為</font><font face="Times New Roman">1%</font><font face="宋體">。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥畸形的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)浮出水面<font face="Times New Roman">——</font><font face="宋體">貴人鳥集團(tuán)、貴人鳥投資、弘智投資的實(shí)際控制人均為林氏家族成員,存在關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 非林氏家族的億興投資之所以能持有貴人鳥股份,是在即將<font face="Times New Roman">IPO</font><font face="宋體">沖刺的最后階段,貴人鳥迫于證券監(jiān)督的壓力,突擊引進(jìn)投資人億興投資。
億興投資成立于</font><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font><font face="宋體">年</font><font face="Times New Roman">6</font><font face="宋體">月</font><font face="Times New Roman">22</font><font face="宋體">日,其股東為林國清(持股</font><font face="Times New Roman">70%</font><font face="宋體">)和唐向榮(持股</font><font face="Times New Roman">30%</font><font face="宋體">)。
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<p class="p0" style="margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt"><span style="font-family: ‘Times New Roman‘; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-spacerun: ‘yes‘"> 貴人鳥向樂益鞋材、泰昌鞋材關(guān)聯(lián)采購總額占<font face="Times New Roman">2009</font><font face="宋體">年至</font><font face="Times New Roman">2011</font><font face="宋體">年期間當(dāng)期鞋材采購總額的比例分別為</font><font face="Times New Roman">2.45%</font><font face="宋體">、</font><font face="Times New Roman">10.17%</font><font face="宋體">和</font><font face="Times New Roman">6.68%</font><font face="宋體">,占比較高,對公司經(jīng)營成果產(chǎn)生重大影響。
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比如</font><font face="Times New Roman">PU</font><font face="宋體">鞋底,市場價(jià)僅為</font><font face="Times New Roman">12.84</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">雙,而貴人鳥的采購價(jià)高達(dá)</font><font face="Times New Roman">17.10</font><font face="宋體">元</font><font face="Times New Roman">/</font><font face="宋體">雙,是市場價(jià)的</font><font face="Times New Roman">1.33</font><font face="宋體">倍。
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