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China'S Export Growth Or Soft Landing

2008/8/18 15:23:00 26

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Customs import and export data released on 11 may show that in July, China's export growth and favorable balance scale rebounded sharply from last month.

Analysts pointed out that this shows that China's export situation may be better than expected this year, diversification of export structure may lead to a soft landing of exports.

A sharp rebound in exports is better than expected.

"This year, every month's trade data fluctuate greatly, which is related to holidays and the number of bases in the same period last year."

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said.

Data show that in July, China's import and export value of 248 billion 70 million US dollars, an increase of 29.8%.

Exports of US $136 billion 680 million, an increase of 26.9%, and imports of US $111 billion 400 million, an increase of 33.7%.

However, excluding monthly factors, export growth this year is still better than previous market expectations.

Wang Jianhui, a macro analyst at Southwest Securities, said the data showed strong import and export growth, and there were no signs of recession, and worries about the appreciation of the renminbi and the slowdown in foreign demand may be a worry.

"This has a certain relationship with the Chinese government's export tax rebates for textile and other industries, as well as local governments' support for local export industries."

He said that the export situation will be further supported in September when -11 months are usually focused on export.

Li Huiyong, senior macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo believes that the outlook of the world economy may be better than expected from the actual performance, and the slowdown in external demand is less pessimistic than previously expected.

In addition, as the RMB appreciation rate slowed down in July, the value of imports and exports in dollar terms increased.

However, he said that the depreciation of the renminbi may be temporary and difficult to alleviate the plight of export enterprises.

In the bilateral trade with major trading partners, the EU, the United States and Japan were the top three trading partners in the first 7 months.

The trade surplus with the EU reached US $86 billion 940 million, an increase of 24.9% over the same period last year, an increase of 29 percentage points in the surplus growth rate, an increase of 3.8% in the US trade surplus, a decrease of 15 percentage points in the surplus growth rate, and a deficit of 23 billion 980 million US dollars in Japan, an increase of 7 billion US dollars over the same period last year.

Uncertainties remain.

Goldman Sachs analyst Liang Hong believes that because of the diversification of China's export structure, export growth may achieve "soft landing". The annual export will probably remain at around 22%-23%, weaker than last year's growth, but better than many previous expectations.

Morgan chase economist Wu Xianghong believes that exports of both mechanical and electrical products and low-end consumer goods have increased in July, indicating that China's exports remain competitive in the context of global economic slowdown.

Data show that the export of mechanical and electrical products is growing well.

In the first 7 months, the export of mechanical and electrical products in China was 464 billion 220 million US dollars, up 25.7%, accounting for 57.8% of the total export value of the same period, up by 1.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

Among them, the export of electrical and electronic products was 191 billion 260 million US dollars, an increase of 24.6%, and the export of machinery and equipment was US $152 billion 620 million, an increase of 23.8%.

The export of high-tech products was 233 billion 420 million US dollars, an increase of 22.5%.

Despite the slowdown in the growth of traditional commodity exports, textile yarn, fabrics and products exported 37 billion 870 million US dollars in the first 7 months, up 24.4% from the same period last year, accelerating 11.9 percentage points.

However, experts believe that exports in the second half of the year are still facing many uncertainties.

Li Jian pointed out that although there may not be a new policy of restraining exports in the second half of the year, the export enterprises will still face some unfavorable factors such as relative shortage of funds and increased cost in the next one or two years.

At the same time, tight monetary policy will continue.

For enterprises, we should also change the way of development and pay attention to technological innovation and intensive growth.