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Welcome Winter After Olympic Games

2008/8/22 12:01:00 20

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Chinese ancient people have a word called "eventful autumn". In 2008, a year of Olympic Games, the first time China held such a world event, and hoped that it would make the world recognize its achievements in the process of modernization.

But from the beginning of the 2008, people realized that the year was doomed not to be peaceful, not easy, and, of course, extraordinary.

After the snowstorm, the Lhasa riots, the train collision, the hand foot mouth disease epidemic situation, the Olympic torch's global pmission is blocked, the Wenchuan earthquake and several terrorist incidents, the Beijing Olympic Games will be held.

But all the trouble will not stop.

On the contrary, we must be prepared. After the Olympic Games, some problems will come in a more violent situation.

I am not a stock commentators, so I have no ability to predict whether the Chinese stock market will turn downward after the Olympic Games, and will go down to 2000 or 2200 points.

But I was lucky enough to go to the southeast coast with the leaders of the country in the same period. I learned the difficult predicament of China's economic locomotive now.

I heard in Fujian that the monthly interest rate of local private lending has generally reached 5 or 6 cents, and some areas even exceed 1 gross.

In addition to resource monopoly, drug trafficking, fraud and smuggling, I do not know what business can get higher profits than such a heavy cost of capital, but a private business owner said to me: "borrow is dead, do not borrow immediately to die, do you think we borrow?"

From the early July, including the premier of the State Council, including Premier Wen Jiabao, the frequent speeches made by the central leadership in the study of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong and Guangdong, we can see that in the face of the current macroeconomic situation and the new situation of increasing domestic and international disadvantaged factors, the central leadership has been using actions to remind all parties to increase their sense of hardship and may make adjustments to some of the existing policies, especially monetary policy, financing policies and import and export policies, based on the findings of the survey.

Recently, a series of economic data released by the government can interpret this tension.

The National Bureau of Statistics said in July 17th that China's GDP grew by 10.4% in the first half of this year, and the growth rate dropped 1.8 percentage points over the same period last year. This is what we expected at the beginning of the year, but how long will this fall?

How many months or years?

At this time, inflation is also pushing growth, which is indeed a dilemma.

In the first half of this year, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.9%, up 7.1% in June, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. It looks like inflation has been controlled, but the government's goal is to control this year's inflation rate by 4.8%. So far, this goal seems unlikely. Especially after last year's pork price boom, the price of rice has increased by 60% this year. Ren Zhengfei, HUAWEI's boss, has seriously expressed the strong concern that "the society may not be patient" in a recent internal speech.

In the first half of the year, the trade surplus was $99 billion, a decrease of US $13 billion 200 million compared with the same period last year.

Exports of US $666 billion 600 million, an increase of 21.9%, dropped 5.7 percentage points, which is probably the most pressing problem of the Chinese economy, which has always depended on the export-oriented economy.

Recently, two famous private enterprises in Zhejiang, the leap Group and the Jin Wu group collapsed, not only can be interpreted as a concentrated outbreak of the problem of Zhejiang's private investment model, but also reflect the difficult situation of export enterprises under the dual pressure of RMB appreciation and inflation, especially 75% of the employment opportunities, 40% of profits and taxes, 60% of total exports, and 60% of the total industrial output value.

At present, a number of macroeconomic regulation and control policies, including tightening land, increasing labor security, reducing or canceling export rebates, saving energy and reducing emissions, tightening monetary policy, have increased the cost of land, labor, financing and environmental protection at the same time, reducing the narrow profit margins of SMEs.

There is also a danger that, although the CPI growth rate has dropped in June, the producer price index (PPI) increased by 8.8% in the month, reaching the highest point since the high inflation in the middle of 1990s. This means that the rise in consumer prices has been reversed to industrial products, that is, the collapse of enterprises in the light industry gathering areas such as clothing and footwear industries in the Pearl River Delta and Zhejiang this year will occur in the manufacturing enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai rim areas in the near future. The growth rate of PPI will continue to rise, which will bring new pressure to CPI, and it is easy for the public to generate the expectation that prices will continue to rise.

The slowdown in external economy has reduced demand, and the sharp rise in international prices of crude oil, grain and other raw materials has increased the cost of enterprises. The macro-control policies adopted by the government to curb inflation have imposed greater pressure on business operations. After a series of sudden events of natural disasters and human calamities, we really want to usher in a winter.

On the evening of July 23rd, Ma Yun, chairman of the board of Alibaba group, sent all the colleagues' internal mail entitled "winter's mission" to all the colleagues, calling on all Alibaba people to prepare for the winter. He wrote: "our basic judgement of the global economy is that the economy will have bigger problems, and the economy may enter a very difficult period in the next few years.

My view is that the whole economic situation is not optimistic, the next winter will be longer than you imagine.

Colder!

More complicated!

Let's prepare for the winter. "

Many enterprises with vision are preparing for the winter.

For example, HUAWEI, Ren Zhengfei said: "in recent years, China's economic situation may also decline, I hope that senior cadres should have full psychological preparation.

Maybe 2009 and 2010 will be even more difficult. For example, CISCO, Chambers has told managers to limit travel expenses, use accumulated holidays, and gradually reduce the number of employees in some areas; for example, DELL, they are evaluating whether to sell the Financial Services Department, and close a factory in Dezhou, at least 10% of the global layoffs; such as general electric, this script src=>