Textile And Garment Tax Rebate Is Difficult To Appreciate.

Gao Hucheng, Vice Minister of Commerce, said recently that the implementation of the export tax rebate rate for textile and garment products will not be implemented for a long time. After studying the effect of relevant measures, we will further study whether there is room for further increase.

"Because of the continued appreciation of the renminbi and rising domestic costs, the tax rebate of two percentage points can only be said to have slightly enhanced industry confidence."

Another researcher pointed out that the move is purely "a stalling tactic in the trend of industrial upgrading", and many small and medium-sized enterprises have been pulled back from the edge of the exit, which is not conducive to the development of the dominant enterprises.

"For the industry, the substantive impact is not big, and it has little impact on the textile and garment sector in the capital market."

Under the influence of a pivotal factor in the appreciation of RMB, the mechanism of stock selection in textile and garment sector has become a trend of "internal (mainly domestic brand)" and "external (export oriented)" trend.

　　退稅影響微

From the announcement of listed companies' gradual disclosure, we can also see the influence of this policy.

According to the announcement by Lu Tai A (000726.SZ), which is the most beneficial, it is estimated that according to the import and export plan of 8-12 months in 2008, the company will increase the total profit of the company by about 21 million 80 thousand yuan this year.

In addition, 002083.SZ gained half a year's profit of 15 million and Jin Feida (002239.SZ) also benefited from 4 million to 5 million.

However, a number of listed companies such as 600483.SH, 600156.SH and Kaiyuan (600981.SH) of Fujian have announced that tax rebate adjustment has little effect on Jiangsu.

The CITIC investment research report estimates that the adjustment will increase the total profit of the textile industry by US $2 billion 600 million. According to the exchange rate of US dollar to 6.82 yuan, the profit will increase by about 17 billion 700 million yuan.

However, due to the relatively high dispersion of textile and garment enterprises, such a large amount of money scattered to a single level of listed companies, the impact is not obvious.

The textile and clothing sector index provided by great wisdom shows that the cumulative decline of the index has been 22.6% since August 1st, compared with a 16.96% decline in the same period.

According to the research report released by CICC, from the historical point of view, the correlation between the adjustment of export tax rebate rate and the change of plate index is not high.

However, the proportion of institutional investors in the textile and garment sector has increased, from 2.4% in early August to 2.7% at present.

Against the backdrop of RMB appreciation and weak foreign demand, it is almost impossible to hope that the export tax rebate will reverse the industry.

"Compared to the export tax rebate, the appreciation of the renminbi has brought us much more influence."

In the first half of this year, the appreciation rate of RMB has reached 6.5%. In the first half of this year, the export volume of Ru Tai A was 210 million US dollars. If it did not take hedging measures such as hedging, its exchange loss would exceed RMB 80 million yuan.

However, due to the proper use of the hedging business, the exchange income of 99 million 900 thousand yuan in the first half of 2008 has completely covered the pressure of RMB appreciation, or even a slight surplus.

　　 再上調(diào)謹(jǐn)慎

"The export tax rebate adjustment in August is still a little different from our previous expectations. Before the industry, it was widely assumed that the export tax rebates for clothing increased by 4 percentage points."

At the same time, since September 1st, India has also increased export tax rebates for some textiles, leather, cotton and other products, which has also been interpreted by some sectors as a "dark battle" between China and India.

The speculation that the relevant departments will raise the export tax rebate again is coming to life.

Guo Haiyan, a researcher at CICC, believes that the textile export tax rebate rate may have room for further improvement, "but policy decisions will be more prudent."

In her opinion, although the export tax rebate rate of textile and clothing is only at the middle level in all industries enjoying export tax rebates, "but at present, the total export tax rebate of all industries has already accounted for 10.7% of our fiscal revenue, facing the huge support of post disaster reconstruction and the rising subsidies of low income groups brought by high inflation, which is estimated to be further in the country."