How To View Industrial Growth And Decline

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics on 15 may show that China's industrial growth rate dropped to 5.4% in November.

How to view this change correctly, the reporter interviewed the head of the State Statistics Bureau on 15 th.

Q: in November, the industrial production above Designated Size dropped to 8.2% after the growth rate dropped to 5.4% in October. How to treat this change?

A: we need to look at this change in a comprehensive way. We should see that the growth rate of some industries will still be faster or faster.

First, the light industry continued to maintain a relatively fast growth, an increase of 10.1% over the same month.

Two, the growth of production of collective enterprises and joint-stock cooperative enterprises was accelerated, 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively faster than that of last month, and private enterprises continued to grow fairly fast and 14.1% in the same month.

Three, the growth rate of some industries is still accelerating. For example, the ferrous metal mining and mining industry has increased 2.6 percentage points from last month, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has accelerated 2.6 percentage points, the special equipment manufacturing industry has accelerated 1.6 percentage points, the textile, clothing, footwear and hat manufacturing industry has been accelerated by 1.6 percentage points, and the furniture manufacturing industry has been accelerated by 0.1 percentage points.

Four, the output growth of some products accelerated, the growth of concrete machinery increased by 16.5 percentage points from last month, and the cement speed increased by 1.7 percentage points.

Q: what is the next driving force for industrial growth?

Answer: it should be said that from the perspective of investment and consumption, there is still a strong driving force for industry.

From 1 to November, investment in fixed assets of cities and towns in China continued to maintain a relatively fast growth. Investment in the primary industry increased rapidly, and investment in the central and western regions increased faster than in the East. In particular, the total investment growth rate of the new projects started to reach 5.4%. In November, the total investment of the new projects started in the same month increased by 26.9%, indicating that the investment growth will accelerate.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market has maintained a relatively fast growth.

In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 20.8% over the same period last year, 2 percentage points faster than that of the same month last year. The real growth rate was 17.6%, after deducting the price effect, 5.5 percentage points faster than the same month last year, and 1 percentage points faster than last month.

In particular, with the promotion of preferential policies for home appliances to the countryside, sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 6.7 percentage points.

In addition, the implementation of the VAT pformation policy in January of next year will also have some impact on industrial production, and some of the orders will be changed to next year.

Q: what changes has been seen in the adjustment of macroeconomic policies since October?

A: the positive fiscal policy and the moderately loose monetary policy effect have already appeared in statistics.

In addition to the total investment accelerated by the new construction projects mentioned earlier, the national fiscal expenditure in November increased by 16.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than last month.

Among them, social security and employment, education, health care and other aspects of expenditure continued to maintain rapid growth.

RMB loans continued to increase in financial institutions, including short-term loans and medium and long-term loans.

Q: how do you see the speed of China's industrial economy in the future?

A: Although the industrial speed dropped much in November, the basic conditions for China's industrial economy to maintain steady and rapid development for a long time have not changed.

In particular, the central economic work conference further defined the economic policy of next year's economic work and specific economic policies to expand domestic demand and promote growth.

We believe that with the implementation of these policies, China's industrial production will surely overcome the current difficulties.