Russia'S First Quarter Leather Shoes Economic Negative Growth

In the first quarter of this year, under the complex situation of the international subprime crisis spreading and deepening, the Russian economy continued to maintain the momentum of rapid development, and the overall economic situation was better than expected.

With the expansion of the possibility of export of raw materials and rough products, the sector facing the domestic market has become the pillar of industry and the overall economic growth, and the role of domestic demand for economic growth continues to increase.

In the first quarter, prices continued to rise too fast. Inflation has become the biggest threat to the steady development of the economy. Curbing inflation has become the most urgent task of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control.

First, export investment, consumption and three carriages at the same time.

After a brief slowdown in January, Russia's economic growth accelerated in 2-3 months. GDP grew by 8% in the first quarter, and exports, investment and consumption maintained strong growth momentum.

In the international market to Russia's favorable conditions, exports in the first quarter increased by 54.2% over the same period, much higher than the 6.5% growth in the same period in 2007.

Fixed capital investment grew by 20.2% over the same period last year, maintaining a steady growth trend.

With the growth of household income and bank consumption loans, the growth of retail trade has accelerated, which has increased by 16.7% compared with the same period in 2007, and household consumption expenditure has increased by 13.3% over the same period last year.

With the rapid growth of the processing industry, the rapid growth of consumption demand and investment demand has ensured the high speed of overall economic growth.

Two, the processing industry has become the main supporting sector for rapid industrial growth.

In the first quarter of the year, the production of the +D+E sector (the manufacturing sector, the electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, construction industry) increased by 6.2%, down from 7.5% in the same period in 2007. The drag factor was the decline in the output value of the mining industry - an increase of 0.7% over the same period (0.9% of the energy products in China, and 1.7% of the oil).

The main supporting factor for the growth of industrial production is the rapid growth of the processing industry.

After a brief slowdown in January, most sectors of the processing industry resumed rapid growth at the end of 2007.

Among the fastest growing sectors are the food processing industry -6.4%, leather footwear industry -6.6%, Sen industry and wood products processing -15.6%, pulp and paper and printing industry -7.8%, oil -5.0%, rubber plastic processing industry -30.4%, metallurgy and metallurgy processing -8.6%, pportation equipment and equipment production -14.4%, machine equipment manufacturing -16.4%.

At the same time, some sectors are growing below the overall level of the industrial sector, such as the growth of chemical industry 3.7%, textile and garment -2.6%, electronic equipment and instrumentation -6.7%.

While the food processing industry is growing, production of bread and bakery products, milk powder, sugar and other important foods has declined.

Three, the overall growth of fixed capital investment driven by the construction industry.

The high growth of fixed capital in the first quarter was driven by the construction industry.

The construction industry increased by 28.9%, compared with 17.2% in the same period in 2007, and its construction area increased by 7.8% over the same period last year.

Transportation complex, mining industry, power sector, social sector and investment demand for real estate have the greatest impact on investment.

In 1-3 months, the area of housing used amounted to 10 million 20 thousand square meters (950 square meters in 2007).

This is not only because the construction industry has always maintained investment attraction, but also benefited from the implementation of the national priority project to make citizens comfortable housing.

Net foreign investment in the first quarter was US $31 billion 500 million, down 10 billion 200 million US dollars from US $41 billion 700 million in the first quarter of 2007.

Among them, foreign direct investment is US $17 billion 800 million, about half of the inflow of foreign investment constitutes other kinds of investment, manifested as foreign loans guaranteed by the Russian government.

In the first quarter, the net outflow of foreign capital amounted to US $22 billion 800 million (equivalent to the highest level of outflow in 1992).

The direct outflow of foreign investment is the fastest in the net outflow of foreign capital.

Four, the effect of family consumption on economic growth.

In the first quarter, the real disposable income of the residents increased by 10% compared with the same period in 2007.

Real wage growth remained at a high level, rising 14.6% in March 2008 from a month earlier, an increase of 14% in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2007 (18.2% in the same period in 2007).

Due to the support of residents' income and the growth of bank consumption and loans, the rapid development of wholesale trade and retail trade, hotels, pportation and communication services and the high speed of housing construction have guaranteed the growth of consumption of goods and services.

In the first quarter of 2008, domestic demand continued to improve economic growth.

From the whole country, retail trade has maintained a positive growth in almost all federal districts, of which 22 regions have increased by more than 20%, and 4 federal bodies have increased by more than 30%.

But regional growth is rather uneven.

Moscow, St Petersburg, Moscow, West vrovsky, Samarra, chyoming and Krasnodar concentrated 43.4% of Russia's total retail sales, of which Moscow alone accounted for 19.9%.

In 1-2 months, consumption expenditure accounted for 76.6% of the total income of residents, of which 59% was used to purchase goods.

The growth of the real disposable income of residents has not only expanded the volume of retail trade, but also made positive changes in the retail trade structure. The growth rate of non food commodities sales increased by 22.1% and 10.4%, respectively.

The expansion of residents' demand for capacity to pay has also contributed to the growth of domestic processing industry, especially the food processing industry.

In the first quarter, the output value of meat and meat products increased by 13.5%, the output value of vegetable oil and animal oil increased by 6.8%, that of canned fish and seafood increased by 19.7%, and that of beverages increased by 2.9%.

Refrigerators and freezers grew by 23.3%, cars increased by 14.4%, washing machines increased by 7.7%, and footwear increased by 6.9%.

Five, strong growth in foreign trade and imports and exports.

According to Russian customs statistics, Russia achieved import and export volume of US $163 billion 300 million in the first quarter, an increase of 50.8% over the same period, of which 108 billion 500 million US dollars were exported, an increase of 52.9% over the same period last year, much higher than the 6.5% increase in the same period in 2007.

We finished importing US $54 billion 800 million, an increase of 46.8% over the same period last year.

The foreign trade surplus of US $53 billion 600 million is much higher than that of US $29 billion 100 million in the same period in 2007.

The reason for the sharp increase in exports in the first quarter is that since September 2007, the price of commodity contracts for international oil prices and Russian exports rose, of which oil rose 0.7 times, oil products increased 0.6 times, and natural gas 29.3%.

Russia's main exports to distant countries are energy, accounting for 73.8% of total exports, up 68.7% over the same period last year.

The price of machinery and equipment exported by Russia to the far neighbor countries has increased 0.8 times compared with the same period last year, much higher than that of the CIS countries.

The most important factor in the growth of imports is the accelerated growth of investment and consumption demand, especially the investment products represented by machinery and equipment, an increase of 67% over the same period last year.

In the first quarter, the proportion of distant countries in Russia's foreign trade increased from 84.5% to 85.6%, and the proportion of CIS countries dropped from 15.3% to 14.4%.

The European Union is still Russia's most important trading partner, accounting for 53.9% of Russia's total foreign trade.

Germany, Holland and Italy are Russia's main trading partners in the EU, accounting for 49.2% of the volume of trade between Russia and the EU, accounting for 31% of the trade volume between Russia and its far neighbours.

China, Japan, the United States and South Korea are Russia's most important trading partners in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, accounting for 87% of the volume of foreign trade between Russia and the organization, accounting for 19.9% of the foreign trade volume between Russia and its far neighbours.

Six, sharp increase in international reserves and continued strong rouble.

In the first quarter, under the indirect impact of the subprime crisis, private capital outflows 22 billion 800 million US dollars. However, in the case of favorable international market for Russia's main export products, the favorable balance of foreign trade is still increasing rapidly, which not only makes up for the outflow of private capital, but also increases the accumulation of international reserves.

In the 1-3 month, the current surpluses increased by 61.6% compared with the same period last year, a net increase of 37 billion US dollars.

Up to April 1st, it amounted to $507 billion.

At present, Russia implements a multi currency foreign exchange basket system.

In the first quarter, the rouble maintained a strong trend and showed different trends in different currencies.

Overall, the real effective exchange rate of rouble rose by 1.4%, of which the real appreciation of the dollar was 6.5%, the appreciation of the euro was 1.1%, the appreciation of the pound was 8.9%, the depreciation of Reed was 3.5%, and the Japanese yen depreciated 2.8%.

Seven, the federal budget execution is better than the same period last year.

According to the preliminary statistics of the Ministry of finance, the implementation of the federal budget in the first quarter is better than last year.

The budget revenue reached 19318 billion US dollars, equivalent to 22% of GDP, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2007.

The federal budget expenditure of 13828 billion rubles, equivalent to 15.7% of GDP, 1.7% higher than the same period last year.

The federal budget surplus is 549 billion rubles, equivalent to 6.3% of GDP.

Resource exploitation tax and oil export tax are the main factors for the growth of federal budget revenue in the 1-2 month of 2008.

As of April 1st, the total amount of oil funds formed by the above two taxes amounted to 38420 billion rubles (163 billion US dollars, which is expected to be 9.1% of GDP in 2008), 30684 yuan of rubles (130 billion 500 million US dollars) and 773 billion 600 million rubles (32 billion 900 million US dollars) of the national welfare fund.

Due to the negative interest rate, the total amount of the oil fund has been reduced by 28 billion 600 million rubles since the stabilization fund was split in February 1, 2008.

Eight, inflation pressure will not drop instead of increase.

Since the end of 2007, the government has adopted a series of technical measures, such as freezing price agreements with food producers and sales companies, increasing food supply, reducing or even stopping food exports, and raising the rate of refinancing in the 10 place for the first time in order to curb price rises.

The effect of the above measures is not obvious because of the increase of residents' demand and the pressure of cost increase. Since the beginning of this year, inflation has remained at a high level, an increase of 4.8% over the first quarter, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from 3.4% in the same period last year.

The most important factor affecting inflation is the increase in food prices.

Because of the increase in international grain prices, the price of food in Russia increased. The average price of bread and bakery food increased by 8.3% in the first quarter. There were 10 federal entities whose food prices increased by more than 15% over the same period, including 22.6% in Vladimir, -22.5% in the Republic of tuvala, -21.5% in Dagestan, and -18.6% in -18.6%.

Overall, food prices rose by 5.7% in the first quarter, 1.2 times higher than 2.6% in the same period last year, but lower than the 6.9% increase in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The weight of inflation is 2.2%.

The prices of non food commodities almost increased by 1 times compared to the same period last year, and the impact on inflation was 0.7%.

The fee for fee service increased by 7.5% compared to the same period last year, and the market service charge increased by 5.1% over the same period.

In the first quarter, the prices of industrial products also began to rise, of which the prices of extractive products increased by 6.2%, and the price of oil sold on the market rose by 14.3%.

The price of non-metallic building materials is to maintain the trend of accelerated growth.

The average rose 5.4% in the first quarter.

Cement 6.6% and brick 9.3%.

Machinery and equipment prices rose by 5.5%.

As a result of implementing the investment plan of natural monopoly departments, the price of power equipment in investment products increased fastest and increased by 15.3%, and the price of machinery and equipment used in metallurgical industry increased by 6.4%.

At present, there are many factors affecting the price increase, which are both international and domestic, both in terms of production and supply.