Earthquake Economic Losses Exceed Snowstorm Is Expected To Reach 200 Billion.

As of 12 May 21st, the Wenchuan earthquake has caused 41353 deaths, 274683 people were injured, and 32666 people were missing.

Experts predict that the impact of the earthquake on China's economy will gradually emerge, and the economic losses it will cause will be far more than the snowstorm cost of 151 billion 650 million yuan.

According to preliminary estimates, the earthquake caused Sichuan industrial enterprises to lose more than 67 billion yuan, and more than 1.4 enterprises were affected, and the losses suffered by private property were expected to outweigh the losses of enterprises.

Last week, JP Morgan's research report said that the impact of the earthquake on China's economy was limited and short, far less than the snowstorm of the beginning of the year.

Liu Zhengshan, an economist, estimated that the direct economic loss caused by the earthquake was about 525 billion 200 million yuan, and the economic loss of the snow disaster at the beginning of this year was 151 billion 650 million yuan, which meant the great earthquake damage to the economy, which was nearly 2.5 times more than the snow disaster.

Jian Ping, chief economic officer of the state information center, also said that compared with the snowstorm, the earthquake caused greater losses to the people's property, and the direct economic loss was much larger than that of the snowstorm.

AIR global company of international catastrophe risk model 20 said that the lack of historical loss data increased the difficulty of estimating the economic losses caused by the Sichuan earthquake in China. The original estimate of the economic loss of 140 billion yuan in AIR described the lightest damage in the five versions of the earthquake disaster simulation.

According to the data in 2007, Sichuan has a population of 81 million 700 thousand people, accounting for 6.2% of the total population of the country, and Sichuan's GDP is 1 trillion and 50 billion 530 million yuan, accounting for GDP4.3% of the whole country.

Fan Jianping believes that in the second quarter, the consumption and service industries in Sichuan will mainly be affected by tourism, which will have a negative impact on the growth of GDP nationwide.

China Merchants Securities pointed out that 20 million people in Sichuan worked outside the province last year, the first in the country. A large number of workers may return home to help rebuild after the disaster, affecting the supply of labor throughout the country.

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities, believes that the disaster area accounts for about 50% of Sichuan's GDP, accounting for about 2% of the national GDP, and the earthquake may drag down China's annual GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.

BOC International released a report that estimated that the GDP growth rate of China could be reduced by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points this year.

At present, the loss assessment of most institutions and economic circles is between 150 billion yuan and -2000 billion yuan.

Experts said that most of the specific amount was not disclosed due to the fact that the extent of economic damage is still being counted.

However, from the available data, we can see that the loss of the economic stock of the Wenchuan earthquake should not be underestimated.