Iron And Steel Industry'S "High" Domestic And Foreign Spreads

According to the latest statistics of the customs, 5 million 220 thousand tons of steel were exported in June, a decrease of 340 thousand tons compared with May, a decrease of 1 million 140 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Steel imports of 1 million 260 thousand tons, 80 thousand tons less than in May, 150 thousand tons lower than the same period last year.

Export data in June confirmed our previous judgement of export trends.

In the situation of RMB appreciation and global economic slowdown, because there are no new countries and regions in the short term to completely replace China's supply capability to the world market, China's steel exports will show a slow downward trend.

The rebound in steel exports in 3-5 is only a rebound in the downward trend.

A careful analysis of the country data of China's steel export in 1-5 months shows that the trend of the decline in external demand is emerging.

Therefore, huge domestic and foreign price differences will not bring about a sustained rise in steel exports.

The main flow direction of China's steel exports is Korea, Vietnam and the United States.

In 1-5, China's exports to these three countries accounted for 41% of the total steel exports.

Since April, the volume and average price of steel exported to these three countries have been deviated from each other. That is to say, the export volume and average price of steel exported to Korea and Japan show a trend of decreasing price, while the export volume and average price to the United States show a trend of increasing volume and falling prices.

The departure relationship between export volume and price shows that the rise in prices is not supported by effective demand, and the signs of shrinking external demand are obvious.

Therefore, the continuous decline of steel exports is an inevitable trend.

Against this background, there is no need to introduce a policy of tariff adjustment for steel exports.