Export Growth Slows And Textile Industry Can Expect A Favorable Change.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that China's cumulative trade surplus in the first half of this year was 99 billion 30 million US dollars, down 11.8% from the same period last year, and a net decrease of US $13 billion 210 million.

Among them, the trade surplus in June was 21 billion 350 million US dollars, down 20.6% compared to the same period last year, a net decrease of US $5 billion 540 million.

Statistics show that the main reason for the decrease in the trade surplus in the first half is slower relative growth in exports and relatively higher import growth.

In the first half of this year, China exported 666 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 21.9%, the growth rate was 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and imports 567 billion 570 million US dollars, an increase of 30.6%, a growth rate of 12.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

Sherman Chan, an economist at Moodie economic network, believes that the surplus in June is still lower than expected, even though it has increased a bit from May.

Sun Mingchun, an economist at Lehman Asia, told reporters: "export growth in June dropped from 28.1% in May to 17.6%, and imports also declined, which are lower than expected."

At present, exports have become weaker in the first half of the year.

Sun Mingchun said that the appreciation of the renminbi, rising labor costs, rising prices of raw materials, and a series of macro-control policies aimed at export since last year are all weakening the competitiveness of China's exports. More importantly, the global economic slowdown is like "sprinkling salt on wounds", which is expected to continue to decline in the next few months.

At the beginning of this month, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce in Zhejiang and Wenzhou, said that the business operation of China has maintained a good momentum this year. However, the uncertain factors of the current international economic environment have increased significantly, which has increased the difficulty of domestic macroeconomic regulation and business development.

However, in the face of the current situation, the Ministry of Commerce will not introduce a "rescue" policy in the face of the current decline in exports.

At present, the export of Chinese traditional superior products is mixed.

In the first half of this year, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 388 billion 780 million US dollars, an increase of 25.4%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value of the same period, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

However, the export growth of traditional bulk commodities showed signs of slowing down, of which clothing and clothing accessories exported 49 billion 960 million US dollars, an increase of only 3.4%; textile yarns, fabrics and products exported US $31 billion 720 million, an increase of 26.8%; footwear exports amounted to US $13 billion 460 million, an increase of 12.5%.

The appreciation of the renminbi has been plaguing the textile industry this year.

The Bank of China released a report the day before yesterday that the RMB will rise to 8%~10% against the US dollar in 2008, and the rate of appreciation in 2009 will be greatly reduced.

Sun Mingchun also believes that the rate of appreciation of the renminbi will slow down in the second half of this year compared with the first half of this year.

He predicts that the yuan will rise to 6.70 against the US dollar at the end of this year, and that it will reach 6.30 at the end of 2009.

In this way, the textile industry can expect a favorable change, but the export of steel will face some negative prospects.

In the first half of this year, China's steel exports decreased by 20.2% from a year ago, and the amount of steel exports increased by only 12.9%.

In July 9th, the European Commission issued an official announcement announcing anti-dumping investigations on seamless steel tubes originating in China.

The United States recently approved the highest tax rate of 118% on China's US steel nails worth more than 450 million US dollars.

Outside, Europe and the US have begun to launch another round of anti-dumping against Chinese steel products.

"From the perspective of enterprises, we are facing great pressure at the moment.

Most of them hope that the country's foreign trade, exchange rate and financial policies will remain stable while creating a relatively relaxed environment so that exports can continue to maintain a relatively fast growth momentum in the second half of the year.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and trade research, China foreign trade research department, said in an interview with reporters.