In The First Half Of The Year, The Trade Surplus Dropped More Than 10%, And The Surplus Inflection Point Has Come To The End.

In June, China achieved a trade surplus of US $21 billion 350 million, down 20.6% from the same period last year and a net decrease of US $5 billion 540 million - the trade surplus figures released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday June are quite striking.

Export growth slowed and import growth soared, making China's cumulative trade surplus of US $99 billion 30 million in the first half of this year, down 11.8% from the same period last year and a net decrease of US $13 billion 210 million.

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, China's total foreign trade import and export amounted to US $1 trillion and 234 billion 170 million, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports of US $666 billion 600 million, an increase of 21.9%, and imports of US $567 billion 570 million, an increase of 30.6%.

　　外貿順差拐點已至？

China's huge export surplus in recent years has been criticized by the West.

Last year, China completely changed the idea of "rewarding exports" which lasted for many years. However, under the strong export inertia, the growth rate of foreign trade surplus remained high until the first quarter of this year.

However, the data in recent two months are impressive.

If China's trade surplus in May decreased by 9.9% compared with the same period last year (20 billion 210 million US dollars, a net decrease of US $2 billion 210 million), we still can not see anything. Then the decline in June to 20% will make the trade surplus "inflection point theory" increasingly popular.

More and more people believe that the growth of China's long term foreign trade surplus will start to accelerate and turn downward.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said that China's export growth is likely to further decline in the next few quarters, and the surplus will continue to decrease significantly.

Professor Shen Boming of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies is cautious about this.

He believes that the sudden increase in the Sichuan earthquake and the unusual surge in international oil prices all aggravated the extent of the trade surplus in June. Whether the surplus figures in the second half of this year are still falling so fast is worth further observation.

If international oil prices fall and the US economy gets warmer, the trade surplus will not be ruled out.

According to the General Administration of customs, China's foreign trade will continue to slow down its export growth pattern and import growth pattern this year. The contradiction between the rapid expansion of trade surplus and trade imbalance will be reversed.

Someone asked the question: will China shift from a favorable balance of trade to a deficit in foreign trade?

Shen Boming's answer is that from the structural analysis of China's manufacturing industry, this situation will not happen for a long time to come.

　　出口企業須加快轉型

According to the analysis of the General Administration of customs, the 6 main factors leading to the reduction of China's trade surplus in the first half of this year are macroeconomic regulation and control, appreciation of the renminbi, slowing external demand, upgrading of international trade protectionism, strong domestic demand and soaring import prices of primary products.

Many experts have indicated that this year's favorable balance will decrease steadily, which will be beneficial to the realization of macroeconomic overheating and inflation prevention.

Against this background, export enterprises will face structural reshuffle in 2008.

Shen Boming told reporters that the decline in foreign trade surplus should be treated with "normal mind" because there is no reason to continue to develop high consumption and low efficiency processing industry.

Under the profound changes of import and export pattern, it is particularly urgent for export enterprises to accelerate pformation.

Textile industry veteran told reporters that even if the textile export tax rebate rate is raised, the profits for those less competitive enterprises will soon be overruled by overseas customers.

Shen Boming said that enterprises can no longer rely solely on low price and quantity to expand, but to improve technology and quality, and improve cost performance.

　　做進口生意正當時

The latest customs statistics show that China's monthly import scale has exceeded 100 billion US dollars for 3 consecutive months.

In June, exports increased by 17.6%, while imports increased by 31% year on year.

It is understood that the increase in China's imports is mainly due to the substantial increase in the price of international oil and bulk resources.

In June, the average price of China's crude oil imports rose to 849.1 US dollars per ton, creating a new high in recent months.

Statistics show that in the first half of this year, China's total imports of crude oil grew by 11% over the same period last year, the growth rate dropped slightly compared with the same period last year, but the import value increased by 85.8%.

The General Administration of Customs pointed out that in the first half of this year, the import volume of primary products increased by 69.9%, and the pace was accelerated.

Imports of industrial products increased by 17.5% during the same period.

"At present, foreign trade enterprises should pay more attention to import business."

Shen Boming told reporters that importing business in China has always been very profitable. As long as businessmen discover more high-tech products, advanced consumer goods and cultural and creative products and services that meet domestic needs, the import business is definitely a big gold mine.