Analysis Shows That China'S Exports Will Continue To Slow Down In The Second Half Of The Year, And The Surplus Will Continue To Decline.

Although many foreign trade enterprises reflect difficulties in survival, macro data show that in the first half of this year, China's foreign trade exports did not recede as a whole.

Analysts believe that with the further changes in the internal and external economic environment, China's export growth will continue to slow down in the second half of the year, and imports will maintain a rapid growth momentum. However, the change in the foreign trade situation has led to the possibility of a "hard landing" in our economy.

　　出口增速將繼續放緩

Customs statistics show that the total value of China's imports and exports reached US $1 trillion and 234 billion 170 million in 1-6, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports amounted to 666 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 21.9%; imports of US $567 billion 570 million, an increase of 30.6%; the trade surplus of US $99 billion 30 million, a decrease of 11.8% compared with the same period last year, and a net decrease of US $13 billion 210 million.

Since the beginning of this year, China's import growth has been higher than the export growth rate. The import volume has been maintained high by the impact of global inflation, and the trade surplus has narrowed continuously.

The head of the General Administration of Customs has said that trade surplus has been reduced this year due to factors such as trade tax policy control, RMB appreciation, slowing external demand, upgrading of international trade protectionism, strong domestic demand and soaring import prices of primary products.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, thinks that the export situation will continue this trend in the second half of the year.

Export growth will continue to slow as global economic growth slows down and domestic production costs increase.

"If there is no major global financial crisis, China's export growth will probably be around 15% this year."

Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China, pointed out that since the fourth quarter of last year, the rate of repayment of US businesses has slowed down and the default rate has increased.

"Many importers in the US have been unable to perform their contracts, and many domestic export enterprises are more concerned about whether the goods previously issued can be recovered."

In addition, the cost of production continued to increase.

Analysts pointed out that international commodity prices rose rapidly, and domestic natural disasters increased inflation pressure, which was also reflected in the operating conditions of import and export enterprises. Import costs, domestic prices, credit costs, labor wages, increased environmental protection costs and accelerated appreciation of the people's currency had a greater impact on export deceleration.

According to the data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, China's new export orders index fell to 50.2 in June, and continued to decline for three consecutive months. In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 52, approaching the critical point of economic recession of 50, which means that the export industry's situation in the second half of the year is not optimistic.

From the point of import, Li Jian believes that because of the rapid growth of domestic investment, consumption growth this year and the impact of earthquake disaster reconstruction factors, the import demand will continue to grow strongly in the second half of the year, and the high price of international commodities will also push up the import price.

"Overall, the surplus will continue to shrink this year, at most as compared with 2007."

　　經濟“硬著陸”可能性不大

Although the export growth rate will further slow down in the second half of the year, the possibility of a "hard landing" in China's economic operation is unlikely.

On the one hand, China's export market is gradually diversifying.

In the past six years, the proportion of trade volume between China and the top five trading partners has been decreasing, and the trade with emerging market countries is more active.

On the other hand, in the long run, the current adjustment will help optimize the structure of export commodities and speed up the pformation of foreign trade growth mode.

Enterprises with low technology content and low added value export are facing increasing pressure of survival and risk elimination.

At present, this adjustment and labor pains are also an opportunity to optimize the structure of export commodities and pform the growth mode of foreign trade.

Gao Luyi, senior economist at the world bank, believes that in the past 5 months, the export growth of processing trade, which is vulnerable to international economic and trade cycles, has slowed down, while general trade imports which are more closely related to China's domestic demand remain strong.

He pointed out that so far there is no clear indication that China's manufacturing competitiveness is universally threatened.

Because China has a good investment environment and infrastructure, expanding supply, rapid industrial expansion, and adequate labor supply, these factors can still support the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises even if the renminbi appreciates further.

Li Jian pointed out that in the current domestic inflation rate is relatively high, a moderate slowdown in exports will ease inflationary pressures.

"From experience, inflation pressure has a certain relationship with the excessive growth of exports.

Because export growth is fast, it shows that demand is hot, and strong demand is sure to bring animal prices up.

Therefore, although the role of net exports in GDP may slow down, the impact on the real economy may be complex.

At present, the export is not cold, the growth rate is relatively stable, nor has there been a large number of unemployment.

　　外貿政策不會大變

The pressure faced by domestic export enterprises has attracted close attention from government departments.

Wang Qishan, vice premier of the State Council, said in his recent research in Shandong that the extensive foreign trade development mode in the past was difficult to continue, and that the current difficulties must be solved in terms of structure, mode and quality, so as to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of enterprises.

Experts believe that foreign trade policy may not be substantially adjusted in the second half of the year.

At present, the export growth of primary products has slowed down, the export of labor-intensive products has been growing steadily, and the export of electromechanical products with high technology content is still fast, which are within the expected scope of policy regulation.

Li Jian pointed out that although some export enterprises are demanding higher export rebate rates, policy makers will consider fine-tuning from the perspective of industrial restructuring, but there will be no major changes.

He believed that the RMB appreciation should be prudent.

"This will not only cause greater blow to exports, but also bring liquidity pressure.

It is best to maintain relatively stable and gradual appreciation, giving the enterprises a signal to recognize the changes in the environment and not to go through the road of expansion based on low price and quantity, but to focus on intensive growth.