How Will The Cotton Policies Be Combined At The End Of The Year?

Approaching the next

The three month of the year is the time when cotton production is going to turn yellow and yellow, and it is the sensitive period of market supply and demand.

In this special period, the frequency of policies promulgated by the state is quite high.

The policy directed directly against the cotton market includes the reduction of the minimum tax rate of the sliding tax rate in June 5th, the long term but not yet released Xinjiang cotton Sinop subsidy and the rumored Xinjiang cotton purchase and storage. The possible policy changes aimed at the textile industry are to increase the export tax rebate rate for textile and garment products, raise the interest rate for the cotton market or raise the deposit reserve ratio and other macro control measures.

The implementation of various policies or the order of implementation will have an important impact on the sensitive period of the cotton market.

Sliding rate reduction relative to the import price of cotton imports reduced more than 200 yuan, from the absolute number of textile enterprises have indeed reduced the cost, but at the same time stimulated the rise of cotton, New York cotton

Since June 5th, it has increased substantially by more than 10 cents, and the recent contract increase in July has reached 16%.

In addition, the sliding tariff rate lowered the sales of imported cotton in the bonded area, while there are still millions of tons of cotton waiting for sale in the Xinjiang area, which is inconsistent with the basic policy of giving priority to the sale of domestic cotton.

The market factor is the main reason for the sluggish sales of Xinjiang cotton. However, the slow implementation of the subsidy for Sinop cotton pportation is also an important factor contributing to the slow development of Sinop.

We should implement the subsidy policy for Sinop cotton pportation, so that Xinjiang cotton can be pported to the mainland as soon as possible. On the one hand, it will ease the sales pressure of Xinjiang cotton. On the one hand, we must ensure that the cotton textile and cotton parts are added to the shortage.

This is beneficial to the interests of all domestic parties and accords with the basic policy orientation of giving priority to the sale of domestic cotton.

It will also play a role in boosting the price of international cotton. China is the largest importer of cotton in the world. When it comes to green handover, it will help the international market to clip its own neck.

In addition, Xinjiang cotton Sinop subsidy is intended to promote cotton Sinop, while the purchase and storage of Xinjiang cotton will reduce the willingness of Sinop cotton to Sinop, and the two opposite policies can not be launched at the same time.

The inaccuracy of cotton production and sale data in China has become a hot issue at the end of the year. Once the storage and supply of late cotton supply is tight, the policymakers will have to bear a lot of responsibility.

The state will not collect and store because of the purchase and storage. It is to collect and store the market in order to control the market. At present, the market price is still within the tolerable scope of the state.

The national reserve is not large, but Xinjiang cotton is very much. It is only a question of "storing cotton in the people or storing cotton in the country". As long as the total amount is large, it will not affect the safety of cotton. Therefore, it is not the reason for storing and storing less reserves of New Territories cotton.

At present, China's trade surplus is still expanding.

Reserve increased further.

It is not realistic to expect the state to raise the tax rebate rate of textile exports and expand the export to solve the plight of textile enterprises.

The textile industry is only a chess piece in the national chess market.

The world bank believes that when CPI is 8%, it is a dangerous period, and it is not very good to control inflation. Two times.

If CPI reaches more than 10%, it will become hyperinflation. A hard landing or an economic crisis may occur.

In order to control prices, the central bank is likely to further raise deposit reserve or deposit and loan interest rates.

The role of raising interest rates in resisting inflation is to push banks back to banks, increase the cost of loans and reduce investment impulses, thereby reducing liquidity and purchasing power.

But raising interest rates will also increase the cost of the borrowers and affect their ability to repay their principal and interest.

At risk, the US capital lending crisis is thus formed.

Whether interest rate rises depends on the role of interest rate increase in curbing inflation and the financial risk assessment between the two.

At present, China's excess liquidity is mainly due to excessive inflow of hot money, so the targeted increase of the deposit reserve rate is still better than raising interest rates.

Raising the deposit reserve ratio will make textile enterprises more nervous.

Other policies aimed at the industry are quite clear: Xinjiang cotton pport subsidy should be implemented as soon as possible (theoretically should be lowered earlier than the sliding quasi tax rate). This year's slide rate adjustment and the implementation order of the new territories cotton pport subsidy policy are not the best.

The possibility of raising the export rebate rate of textile and garment is also not large.