Yu Fenghui: The Carriage Of Exportation Must Not Slow Down Too Fast.

According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, China's foreign trade showed a decline in exports, imports and a decrease in surplus. It is developing along the target of overturning the surplus.

However, it is worth noting that exports, as one of the "three carriages" driving economic growth, are showing signs of slowing down too fast, and even a hard landing is possible.

From 5 and June, exports showed a rapid downward trend.

In June, China's trade balance reached US $21 billion 350 million, down 20.6% compared to the same period last year, and a net decrease of US $5 billion 540 million.

According to customs statistics, the export growth of traditional bulk commodities slowed down significantly in the first half of this year.

Among them, clothing and accessories exports fell 18.3% year-on-year, and footwear exports fell 4.7% year-on-year.

Clothing, clothing and footwear are labor intensive export enterprises, which have a great impact on employment.

It is entirely correct to change our economic growth mode and pform the over reliance on exports and investment to investment, export and consumption coordinated development.

However, if we want to speed up the export of this "carriage", the premise is that the speed of "cart" must be raised so as to complement each other.

If exports are down and consumption is not going up, then the economy will inevitably decelerate sharply.

The author believes that "six Swords" dance at the same time to export enterprises, and the strong "man" will fall.

RMB appreciation, domestic and foreign raw materials prices, labor costs rise, environmental costs increase, export tax rebate adjustment, the United States is affected by the subprime mortgage crisis and demand reduction. These six factors are at the same time, and the impact on export enterprises is fatal.

It is estimated that the export cost of enterprises has increased by 20%-30% this year, and the price advantage is no longer. The enterprises are facing the test of life and death.

We must not let exports go too fast before consumption is fully activated.

In the six major factors that affect export enterprises, the rise of labor costs and the increase of environmental costs are the remedy and correction of the past low labor costs and low environmental costs. There is no room for maneuver. The price of raw materials and the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis are not allowed by China.

The export tax rebate can continue to be considered, but the most important tool is the exchange rate instrument.

RMB appreciation is as high as 6.5% in half a year, and export processing enterprises themselves are low in profits.

In the first quarter, exports of the United States increased significantly, pushing up economic growth by 1%, of which the contribution of the US dollar depreciation was 0.6 percentage points, much better than expected.

The US approach may enlighten us.