4 Million 200 Thousand Employment Expectation 21 Billion 500 Million Tax Rebate "Cake"

According to the analysis of the current situation of the textile enterprises and the extent of the export tax rebate raised in this report, the investor research department's data research department has an impact on the textile and garment industry.

The results show that the recent rumored export tax rebate policy, if it can be implemented, will bring a huge profit cake of 21 billion 500 million yuan to the textile and garment industry.

However, behind the delicious cake, the upgrading of the textile and garment industry is worrying.

At the same time, if the export tax rebate is not raised, the pressure of employment will be highlighted again.

21 billion 500 million yuan new tax rebate cake

The state has been adjusting the textile and garment industry for a long time by using the export tax rebate policy.

It is worth mentioning that the increase in the export tax rebate rate will have two functions. On the one hand, it can reduce the export cost of enterprises and increase the profit margins of enterprises. On the other hand, the number of products exported to foreign markets will increase significantly, which will alleviate the pressure of oversupply in the textile and garment market to a certain extent.

Then, if the export tax rebate policy of textile industry can be implemented, what will it bring to the textile industry?

According to the export growth rate of the textile and garment industry in the first half of this year, the data research department of the investor magazine cautiously assumed that textile exports increased by 25% in the second half of this year (7~12 months), and clothing exports increased by 11% over the same period last year.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in the latter half of last year, the export of textiles and garments was 97 billion 580 million yuan, of which 30 billion 880 million yuan was exported to textiles, accounting for 32%, and the clothing industry exported 66 billion 700 million yuan, accounting for 68%.

The volume of processing trade accounts for about 15% of the total trade volume of textile and garment industry.

If the textile export rebate rate is increased by 2 percentage points, the cost of textile export will be 308.80 x (1+25%) x (1-15%) x 2%=6.64 billion in the second half of this year; the export tax rebate rate of garment industry will be increased by 4 percentage points, and the export cost savings of garment industry in the second half of this year will be 667 x (1+11%) x (1-15%) * 4%=25.04 billion.

The total profit of textile and garment industry increased by export cost savings is estimated to be 3 billion 168 million US dollars. In the second half of this year, the average exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is calculated by 6.8, regardless of other factors. The export tax rebate rate callback will offer a huge 21 billion 542 million yuan cake for the textile and garment industry.

Industrial upgrading is worrying

From the perspective of industrial development, the export tax rebate is not necessarily the delicious cake of this industry.

There is an appeal from the industry that the export tax rebate for textile enterprises should not be loosed, otherwise it will not be conducive to the upgrading of the textile industry.

In addition, the export tax rebate seems to be directly subsidized by the textile enterprises, but actually subsidized by foreign consumers.

Extending the lifecycle of textile enterprises by subsidized foreign consumers can only lead to more losses than gains.

According to the data of the first textile network, according to the data of the first textile network, the dependence on foreign trade of the above scale enterprises is about 24% in the clothing industry, and the foreign trade dependency ratio of the small and medium-sized enterprises below the scale is 55%.

The export tax rebate increase will benefit small and medium-sized garment enterprises, which is contrary to the principle of "survival of the fittest" and the policy of industrial upgrading.

Although the export tax rebate can alleviate the industry predicament in a short time, it is not conducive to improving the competitiveness of enterprises.

4 million 200 thousand employment pressure

However, if the state fails to lend a helping hand, the large number of bankrupt textile enterprises will inevitably lead to a large increase in unemployment.

According to statistics, the direct employment of the textile industry is 21 million and the indirect employment population is 100 million.

Some experts predict that if the government does not raise the export tax rebate for textile enterprises, 20% textile workers will be unemployed, which means that at least 4 million 200 thousand of the textile industry is on the edge of unemployment.

In the difficult period of the textile industry in 1998, the textile industry squeezed out 5 million 120 thousand spindles of backward cotton ingots throughout the year and shunted 660 thousand laid-off workers (the National Bureau of Statistics "1998 national economic and social development bulletin").

This year, the 4 million 200 thousand labor force on the textile industry, which is on the edge of unemployment, is nearly 7 times the number of laid-off workers.

If we calculate the employment of 769 million 900 thousand people in the end of 2007, only one sector of the textile industry will lead to an increase of 0.5% in China's unemployment rate.

According to the 2007 communique of the National Bureau of statistics, at the end of last year, the registered unemployment rate of the whole town was only 4%.

At the same time, the difficulty of textile and garment enterprises will have an adverse impact on its upstream industry - agricultural development and farmers' income increase.

The rising unemployment rate and the potential adverse impact on agriculture are obviously contrary to the policy of supporting agriculture and maintaining social stability in recent years.