Economic Observation: Where To Go From The Doha Round? Worrisome

The key round of the Doha round of World Trade Organization negotiations failed 29 days, and after 7 years of Global trade negotiations, it was hit hard again.

This has cast a shadow over the prospects of the Doha round, and the direction of the Doha round has aroused concern and concern from all sides.

Looking back in November 2001, the WTO Doha Round negotiations, carrying a good aspiration to promote the development of developing countries, was officially launched in Doha, Qatar.

However, the negotiations over the past 7 years have been delayed because the differences between developed and developing members on the issue of agricultural and non-agricultural market access have been delayed.

In the past 7 years, the Doha round has experienced a severe blow to the failure of the Cancun conference in 2003 and the 2006 general suspension of negotiations.

On the 29 th of this month, the small ministerial conference, which was attended by more than 30 main members of the WTO, failed again because of differences between the US and India in the special safeguard mechanism of agricultural products among the developing members. The breakdown of the talks was already third.

As the saying goes, there are too many things.

At the moment, giving up lightly may be good news for those who oppose economic globalization and advocate trade protection, but it has wasted all the insistence of all WTO members and will bring the benefits of this trade liberalization to naught.

Because of this, the news of the failure is a sign of global sighing.

As the current "helm" of the current round of negotiations, WTO director general Lamy admits that the breakup of the talks constitutes a "heavy blow" to the Doha round, but stressed that this does not mean that the Doha round is ended.

Both sides, both the United States and India, have said that the door for negotiations is still open.

Negotiations should continue. It can be said that this is also the common voice of WTO members.

Rami said that some members even hoped to resume negotiations in a few days to overcome the unexpected problem of special safeguard mechanism.

From another perspective, although the negotiations eventually broke down, it was by no means "fruitless."

Rami said that after 9 days of intensive consultations, the parties had basically reached agreement on 80% to 85% issues. 17 of the 20 items that need to be completed have passed smoothly, and eighteenth are forming a consensus. The problem is on the nineteenth "special safeguard mechanism". No one has foreseen this.

Lamy expressed his feeling at the news conference after the meeting. This negotiation is actually "one step away" from the summit of the "Doha round", but it is a pity that this step has not been made.

But he said he will try his best to make the negotiations return to the right track on the basis of the results achieved.

However, when the talks are resumed, Lamy refused to give a timetable.

He argued that members of the WTO need to go through a period of reflection before deciding how to resume the negotiation process after the dust settles.

Amorim, Minister of foreign affairs of Brazil, said that the resumption of negotiations may take several years, while EU Trade Commissioner Mandelson is more pessimistic.

He said that in the foreseeable future, WTO members will not be able to reach a preliminary agreement on the two key issues of agricultural and non-agricultural market access.

In another day, WTO and many countries will enter the summer break of August. It is almost impossible to resume talks in the near future.

Earlier, analysts warned that the failure of the ministerial conference would mean that the hope for completion in the Doha round would be even more remote and could be delayed for several years.

After careful analysis, the negotiation card was on nineteenth items, and the remaining twentieth were related to the sensitive topic that the United States refused to relax.

Even diplomats have disclosed that the United States is more serious in this special safeguard mechanism. The purpose is to drag the negotiations to death and not to enter the cotton problem too quickly.

On the issue of cotton, the United States always refuses to slash huge subsidies, but on the other hand, it advocates a developing member to open up the market.

At the same time, the Doha round of negotiations aimed at building a new global trade system is complicated. As a result of bargaining, there are complex links and "hooks" among many issues, especially some sensitive issues, which often lead to "taking the lead and moving the whole body".

As Lamy stressed at this meeting, agreement can only be reached if all the issues are agreed.

In addition, this small Ministerial Conference focuses on solving the two long-standing problems of agricultural and non-agricultural market access, which have long hindered the Doha round negotiation process, while another important field of service trade is only a preliminary discussion.

Although the signals pmitted at the meeting are positive, negotiations in the substantive stage will not be easy as the developed members are covetous, trying to pry open the market of the exhibition members.

In view of the fact that the 3 important members of the United States, the European Union and India, which will affect the Doha round process, will face government changes next year, the resulting policy uncertainty is expected to make future negotiations more difficult.

The repeated failure of the Doha Round negotiations will continue, and its prospect is still a long way to go.